Keith added TGT to the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio today on the long side. To be clear, this is not a change in our fundamental view, and we don’t view TGT as one of those fat-TAIL 2-year doubles. But there are some near-term factors that should help TGT on the margin.
1) Oil down = TGT up. It’s interesting that since Crude Oil started to break down in the early part of April (Brent down by 22% in three months), TGT is down by 1%, and Wal-Mart is up 11% (and setting new highs). Yes, we understand that WMT serves a demographic with less disposable income, but there’s no fundamental reason why WMT would benefit from lower oil prices and TGT would not.
2) The JC Penney fiasco is resulting in a hemorrhage of market share in the mid-tier. The good news for TGT is that Kohl’s is not taking it. In fact, KSS is giving up additional share as well. We’re seeing the consumer shift to off-price channels as TJX and ROST pick up share. We’re even seeing the likes of Macy’s and Gap gain share. If those players benefit, TGT will too (and WMT will not).
3) Last quarter, TGT printed a blow-out number, which was at the precise point where the organization should have otherwise shown weakness due to the management changes over the past nine months (Michael Francis likely kicking himself for going to JCP and subsequently getting fired last week). BBBY is a good example of what happens when a company is ill prepared for changes in the competitive landscape, and logistics associated with big company events (HQ move). TGT is no BBBY. In fact, BBBY is clearly losing share in the Home category. One of its top 5 competitors in that space is Target.
4) Lastly, with TRADE and TREND support of $57.30 and $56.22, respectively, it is sitting at a point where the fundamentals and price mesh well within Hedgeye’s Risk Management framework.
TGT vs. WMT. Vs. Brent Crude: Since Oil started breaking down, TGT is down 1% while WMT is up 11%. There’s no fundamental reason why TGT will not benefit as Oil drops.