- Marriott’s 1-yr forward NA RevPAR guidance has been directionally accurate but its forecasting error is high
- MAR's 12M forward RevPAR projections overshot in down markets and have historically been conservative during recoveries
- 2012 initial guidance has already followed the historical pattern of being too conservative as MAR has already raised the mid-point of their guidance range from 6% to 7%
- The guidance that MAR gave last night for 2012-2014 (+6-8%) seems aggressive on the surface but it's not out of line with growth during last recovery period (2004-2006) which averaged just under 8%
