THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 11, 2012 


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.56% downside to 1305 and 1.38% upside to 1344. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/08 NYSE 1238
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -252
  • VOLUME: on 6/08 NYSE 692.56
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -18.96%
  • VIX:  as of 6/08 was at 21.23
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.26%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -9.27%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/08 closed at 1.34
    • Down from the day prior at 1.43 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.66
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.63
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.37 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 11am: Fed to sell $1b-1.5b TIPS in 4/15/2013 to 4/15/2015 range
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. notes
  • 12pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on U.S. economy in Chicago
  • 12pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Francisco
  • 6pm: Fed’s Pianalto speaks on education 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House in recess, Senate in session
    • Supreme Court issues case rulings, only day this week
    • National Governors Association, National Association of State Budget Officers hold conference call briefing to discuss biannual “Fiscal Survey of States,” 11:30am
    • Week Ahead in Washington, Jun 11-15

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Spain asked euro-region govts. for as much as EU100b ($125b) to rescue its banking system, details of main agreement here
  • Italy in focus after Spain bank rescue
  • Spain bondholders may rank behind official loans on bailout
  • China’s exports rose in May at more than double the pace analysts estimated while industrial output, retail sales trailed forecasts
  • J&J said to pay $2.2b to settle Risperdal U.S. sales probes
  • Goldman may sell hedge-fund admin. unit to State Street
  • AMR CEO Tom Horton says co. plans to emerge from bankruptcy protection as independent co.
  • Rajat Gupta won’t be witness as his insider-trading trial enters final wk
  • Calls to dismiss CEO McClendon are rising at Chesapeake
  • Facebook among those on preliminary list for Russell 3000
  • WW Grainger releases prelim. sales; watch Fastenal
  • Apple may discuss new laptops, iOS updates at developers conference
  • EQT agrees to buy BSN Medical from Montagu for $2.3b
  • Texas Instruments hold mid-qtr forecast call after close
  • Watch casino stocks on data from Las Vegas, Atlantic City
  • “Madagascar 3” is weekend’s top film with $60.4m in sales
  • U.S. Inflation, Apple, OPEC, Egypt Votes: Week Ahead June 9-16 

 EARNINGS:

    • Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.21 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COMMODIITIES – banker bailouts have been prioritized over global consumers now for 5 yrs; that won’t change this morning with Brent Oil shooting back above $100/barrel. Piling more debt-upon-debt is not the way out because it jacks consumers with inflation – and that perpetuates #GrowthSlowing. 

  • Speculators Fail to Reap Crop Rally After Wager Cut: Commodities
  • Copper Jumps Most in Four Months as Chinese Imports Increase
  • Goldman Predicts 29% Return From Commodities Over a Year
  • Commodities Climb as China’s Imports Jump, Spain Seeks Bailout
  • Oil Advances Most in Five Months on Spain Bailout, China Imports
  • Gold Seen Advancing as Dollar’s Value Slumps Against the Euro
  • Corn Advances for Fourth Day as Dry Weather Threatens U.S. Crop
  • LNG Trading Surges as Tullett, Morgan Stanley Seek Asian Premium
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Gas Bets on Supply Worry: Energy Markets
  • Sugar Rises to Six Week-High as Rains Delay Harvesting in Brazil
  • OPEC Poised to Break 10-Year Habit of Supply Cuts During Routs
  • Wheat Stockpiles Contracting on Drought From U.S. to Russia
  • Palm Oil Climbs as Malaysian Stockpiles Tumble to 13-Month Low
  • Pork on Import Menu Helps China Curb Inflation: Chart of the Day
  • Speculators Cut Wagers on Crop Price Rally
  • Sugar May Tumble to Two-Year Low on Surplus, Kingsman Forecasts
  • Iraq Says Oil Price Decline Is Severe; Surplus ‘Tremendous’ 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – Spanish stocks are up +3.5% right out of the box and way overbought (instead of down -31% YTD, now they are down -24% YTD, but still crashing = short selling opportunity); DAX is the most important European tape to watch with immediate-term TRADE resistance line that matters most = 6338. We’re looking to re-load on European shorts, across the board.

 

EURO – uninspiring rally given how large the short position out there is; provided that the EUR/USD can’t overcome $1.27 TRADE resistance, it remains in a Bearish Formation (bearish on all 3 durations) – that makes sense if these characters are going to put their short-term political lives ahead of whatever long-term economic planning remains.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 


 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


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