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MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS

Key Highlights

 

*  Spanish bank bailout expectations prompted across-the-board tightening for EU peripheral countries, EU banks and US global and credit-sensitive banks.

 

* On the other side of the trade, Germany's swaps widened (the only country in the EU to show this) as did swaps of US insurers, as expectations for low rates persisting longer than previously expected rose.

 

* Spanish bank bailout euphoria also rippled across junk bonds, leveraged loans and munis, with both indices showing improvement week-over-week.

 

* Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 1.9% upside to TRADE resistance of $14.41 and 6.1% downside to TRADE support of $13.28.

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary  

• Short-term(WoW): Negative / 3 of 12 improved / 4 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged  

• Intermediate-term(WoW): Negative / 1 of 12 improved / 10 out of 12 worsened / 2 of 12 unchanged  

• Long-term(WoW): Negative / 3 of 12 improved / 5 out of 12 worsened / 5 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Summary

 

1. US Financials CDS  – Insurance swaps widened out last week, with 12 of 16 reference entities wider. On the other side were global banks and consumer lenders, which all tightened, reflecting anticipation of the Spanish bank bailout and expectations that a US "coupling" recession was less likely. 

 

Overall, swaps tightened for 15 of 27 major domestic financial company reference entities last week.   

Tightened the most WoW: WFC, MS, AXP

Widened the most WoW: PRU, UNM, XL

Tightened the most/ widened the least MoM: BAC, MS, RDN

Widened the most MoM: JPM, XL, MMC

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - American CDS table

 

2. European Financial CDS - French banks, still the canary in the coal mine, showed the biggest WoW improvement in swaps. Across Europe last week, 37 of the 39 reference entities we track showed spreads tighten. The median tightening was 4.7% (16 bps).  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - European Financials

 

3. Asian Financial CDS -  Japanese, Indian and Chinese banks swaps were all tighter last week. Bank of China tightened by 55 bps to 173 bps. The median tightening was -12.2%. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Asian Financials

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Expectations for a Spanish bank bailout led to tightening across the EU periphery. Portugal was down 110 bps to 1,071 bps, while Spain and Italy were tighter by 44 bps and 35 bps, respectively (to 526 bps and 569 bps). Interestingly, Germany's swaps widened by 5 bps - the only major market to widen. As the risk in the periphery gets transferred to Germany's shoulders, Germany's creditworthiness is starting to reflect the deterioration. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Sov Table

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Sov 1

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Sov 2

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 16 bps last week, ending the week at 7.93% versus 8.09% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - HY

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 1.66 points last week, ending at 1641.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - LLI

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell 1.0 bps last week, ending the week at 38.9 bps this week versus the prior week print of 39.9 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - TED

 

8. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index fell 1.5 points, ending the week at -15.2 versus -13.7 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - JOC

 

9. Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread held flat at 40 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Euribor OIS

 

10. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - ECB recourse to the deposit

 

11. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 14-V1. Last week spreads tightened 16 bps, ending the week at 169 bps versus 185 bps the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - MCDX

 

 

12. Chinese Steel - We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity. We look at the average Chinese rebar spot price. Steel prices in China fell 0.15% last week, or 6 yuan/ton, to 4,068 yuan/ton. Notably, Chinese steel rebar prices have been generally moving lower since August of last year.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Chinese Steel

 

13. 2-10 Spread – We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.  Last week the 2-10 spread widened to 136 bps, 16 bps wider than a week ago.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - 2 10  risk monitor

 

14. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 1.9% upside to TRADE resistance and 6.1% downside to TRADE support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - XLF 

 

Margin Debt - April: +0.93 standard deviations 

We publish NYSE Margin Debt every month when it’s released. NYSE Margin debt hit its post-2007 peak in April of 2011 at $320.7 billion. The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid against NYSE margin debt going back to 1997. In this chart both the S&P 500 and margin debt have been inflation adjusted (back to 1990 dollar levels), and we’re showing margin debt levels in standard deviations relative to the mean covering the period 1. While this may sound complicated, the message is really quite simple. First, when margin debt gets to 1.5 standard deviations or greater, as it did last April, it has historically been a signal of extreme risk in the equity market - the last two times it did this the equity market lost half its value in the ensuing period. We flagged this for the first time back in May 2011. The second point is that margin debt trends tend to exhibit high degrees of autocorrelation. In other words, the last few months’ change in margin debt is the best predictor of the change we’ll see in the next few months. We would need to see it approach -0.5 to -1.0 standard deviations before the trend runs its course. There’s plenty of room for short/intermediate term reversals within this broader secular move. Overall, however, this setup represents a long-term headwind for the market. One limitation of this series is that it is reported on a lag.  

 

The chart shows data through April. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: GERMANY & US INSURERS WIDEN WHILE REST OF WORLD TIGHTENS - Margin Debt

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Robert Belsky

 

Having trouble viewing the charts in this email?  Please click the link at the bottom of the note to view in your browser. 

 



Teaspoon Bailout

“I could as easily bail out the Potomac River with a teaspoon as attend to all the details of the army.”

-Abraham Lincoln

 

So, in the last 3 trading days, you’ve had begging for Bernanke, a Chinese rate cut, and now another European bank bailout. Nice. Sounds like this must have been the bull case all along. Losers win.

 

To Lincoln’s point, these people have issues. Bigger issues than a 9 handle pre-market rally in the S&P Futures are going to solve (it was 16 handles on the “news” last night). Piling more debt-upon-debt-upon-debt is the last thing that global consumers need.

 

As a reminder, short-term Big Government Interventions (money printing and debt leverage) stoke commodity (oil) price inflations. Policies To Inflate then slow global economic growth. They also eradicate whatever is left of investor trust.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Without credible markets, you don’t solve the #1 issue people have with Global Macro markets right now – trust. Without trust, conflicted and compromised politicians will do just about anything to attempt to save their short-term political career risk. That’s no long-term economic plan for prosperity.

 

This Teaspoon Bailout strategy is not new obviously. You only have to go back to 2008 when ex-Goldman CEO (and credit derivatives market leader), Hank Paulson, brought out the US Bank Bailout Bazooka. The market rallied into the event (inside information), then rallied for about a nanosecond on the “news” to lower-highs, then resumed its decline.

 

Then, the former Dartmouth football player (Hank) was seen puking in his garbage can…

 

Have no fear however, Timmy is still here. There is no question in my mind that central planning pool boy in Chief, Tim Geithner, advised the Europeans to do the same thing he advised America’s politically compromised back then. Having never worked a day outside of Washington’s political elite in his born life, this is what Geithner was sent by his god on this earth to do – bailout banks.

 

This concentration of conflicted political power gets scarier when you think about how close Geithner is to both the President of the United States and the Washington based (and US tax payer backed) IMF. Geithner is fighting for his short-term political life. And, in the long-run, my grand-children are not yet dead.

 

As a reminder, Big Government Interventions in what were our free-markets:

  1. Shorten Economic Cycles (through short-term asset price inflations)
  2. Amplify Market Volatility (through made-up bailouts and rules mid-game)

That’s just a bit off versus the Fed’s Congressional mandate for:

  1. Full Employment
  2. Price Stability

Regardless, in exchange for a 9 handle pop in the US futures and Spanish stocks going from down -31% from their YTD peak to -24% (i.e. still crashing), global consumers get themselves a nice pop in taxes, back up to $100/barrel Brent oil.

 

Dollar down, Euro up, Oil up. Nice.

 

Just when I was starting to get bullish, from a price (1283 long-term TAIL support), the #1 factor that made for our #GrowthSlowing call in February-March, gets put back on the table via Bernanke begging and Europe bailing. There is nothing that slows real (inflation adjusted) growth faster than food/energy prices rising.

 

Now if you are in the March 2012 bull market camp that “this time is different” and the world is “de-coupling”, that’s perfectly fine. That’s what makes a market. Piling more debt-upon-debt in Europe is only going to make this structurally low-growth and no-trust market environment worse.

 

Into and out of the Bernanke Begging last week, we cut our US Equity asset allocation back down to 0%. After starting the week at 12% US Equity allocation, that made for a good week. That puts our current Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model in the following pre-game position:

  1. Cash = 76% (down from 82% last Monday)
  2. International Currency = 12% (all US Dollar, all the time = UUP)
  3. Fixed Income = 12% (US Treasuries and German Bunds = TLT and BUNL)
  4. US Equities = 0%
  5. International Equities = 0%
  6. Commodities = 0%

In other words, we’re already losing today. And we expect to be held accountable for those losses.

 

While I could say what I would have done if I had this Spanish inside information on Friday afternoon, I won’t. I won’t say that if some conflicted and compromised politician in Washington called me with a look-see that I’d pick up the phone either.

 

Last I checked, in most parts of the country, cheating and bailing out banks is still un-American.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, and EUR/USD, and the SP500 are now $1, $95.61-100.91, $80.02-82.63, $1.24-1.27, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Teaspoon Bailout - Chart of the Day

 

Teaspoon Bailout - Virtual Portfolio


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 11, 2012 


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.56% downside to 1305 and 1.38% upside to 1344. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/08 NYSE 1238
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -252
  • VOLUME: on 6/08 NYSE 692.56
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -18.96%
  • VIX:  as of 6/08 was at 21.23
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.26%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -9.27%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/08 closed at 1.34
    • Down from the day prior at 1.43 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.66
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.63
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.37 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 11am: Fed to sell $1b-1.5b TIPS in 4/15/2013 to 4/15/2015 range
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. notes
  • 12pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on U.S. economy in Chicago
  • 12pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Francisco
  • 6pm: Fed’s Pianalto speaks on education 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House in recess, Senate in session
    • Supreme Court issues case rulings, only day this week
    • National Governors Association, National Association of State Budget Officers hold conference call briefing to discuss biannual “Fiscal Survey of States,” 11:30am
    • Week Ahead in Washington, Jun 11-15

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Spain asked euro-region govts. for as much as EU100b ($125b) to rescue its banking system, details of main agreement here
  • Italy in focus after Spain bank rescue
  • Spain bondholders may rank behind official loans on bailout
  • China’s exports rose in May at more than double the pace analysts estimated while industrial output, retail sales trailed forecasts
  • J&J said to pay $2.2b to settle Risperdal U.S. sales probes
  • Goldman may sell hedge-fund admin. unit to State Street
  • AMR CEO Tom Horton says co. plans to emerge from bankruptcy protection as independent co.
  • Rajat Gupta won’t be witness as his insider-trading trial enters final wk
  • Calls to dismiss CEO McClendon are rising at Chesapeake
  • Facebook among those on preliminary list for Russell 3000
  • WW Grainger releases prelim. sales; watch Fastenal
  • Apple may discuss new laptops, iOS updates at developers conference
  • EQT agrees to buy BSN Medical from Montagu for $2.3b
  • Texas Instruments hold mid-qtr forecast call after close
  • Watch casino stocks on data from Las Vegas, Atlantic City
  • “Madagascar 3” is weekend’s top film with $60.4m in sales
  • U.S. Inflation, Apple, OPEC, Egypt Votes: Week Ahead June 9-16 

 EARNINGS:

    • Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.21 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COMMODIITIES – banker bailouts have been prioritized over global consumers now for 5 yrs; that won’t change this morning with Brent Oil shooting back above $100/barrel. Piling more debt-upon-debt is not the way out because it jacks consumers with inflation – and that perpetuates #GrowthSlowing. 

  • Speculators Fail to Reap Crop Rally After Wager Cut: Commodities
  • Copper Jumps Most in Four Months as Chinese Imports Increase
  • Goldman Predicts 29% Return From Commodities Over a Year
  • Commodities Climb as China’s Imports Jump, Spain Seeks Bailout
  • Oil Advances Most in Five Months on Spain Bailout, China Imports
  • Gold Seen Advancing as Dollar’s Value Slumps Against the Euro
  • Corn Advances for Fourth Day as Dry Weather Threatens U.S. Crop
  • LNG Trading Surges as Tullett, Morgan Stanley Seek Asian Premium
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Gas Bets on Supply Worry: Energy Markets
  • Sugar Rises to Six Week-High as Rains Delay Harvesting in Brazil
  • OPEC Poised to Break 10-Year Habit of Supply Cuts During Routs
  • Wheat Stockpiles Contracting on Drought From U.S. to Russia
  • Palm Oil Climbs as Malaysian Stockpiles Tumble to 13-Month Low
  • Pork on Import Menu Helps China Curb Inflation: Chart of the Day
  • Speculators Cut Wagers on Crop Price Rally
  • Sugar May Tumble to Two-Year Low on Surplus, Kingsman Forecasts
  • Iraq Says Oil Price Decline Is Severe; Surplus ‘Tremendous’ 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – Spanish stocks are up +3.5% right out of the box and way overbought (instead of down -31% YTD, now they are down -24% YTD, but still crashing = short selling opportunity); DAX is the most important European tape to watch with immediate-term TRADE resistance line that matters most = 6338. We’re looking to re-load on European shorts, across the board.

 

EURO – uninspiring rally given how large the short position out there is; provided that the EUR/USD can’t overcome $1.27 TRADE resistance, it remains in a Bearish Formation (bearish on all 3 durations) – that makes sense if these characters are going to put their short-term political lives ahead of whatever long-term economic planning remains.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 


 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


MACRO DOWNSIZES MCD

Short term trading opportunities notwithstanding, we’d avoid MCD on the long side for now.  The second quarter results and conference call will offer investors more clarity on the business’ prospects for the next year-to-eighteen months.

 

McDonald’s reported May sales results this morning and, as we suspected, sales disappointed as Global Growth Slowing meant that MCD comps came in below expectations in all regions. Comping the comps in the U.S., Germany slump in Europe, and negative comps in China are important issues going forward.

 

McDonald’s reported global comparable sales growth of 3.3% in May, which represented deceleration in the two-year average trend from April.  McDonald’s continues to take share from its competitors in major markets and we are positive on the name over the longer term TAIL (three years or less).  Over the near-term, however, we see a difficult compare in June as posing more headline risk for the stock.  Additionally, the FX headwinds that are expected to peak in 2Q and 3Q could cause investors to shy away from McDonald’s in any search for safe plays in the consumer space over the next few months.

 

MACRO DOWNSIZES MCD - mcd global

 

 

United States

 

McDonald’s U.S. comparable restaurant sales gained 4.4%, slightly ahead of our estimate of 4% and below consensus of 5.3%, according to Consensus Metrix.  With price running at 3%, traffic/mix of 1.4% was short of what the Street was expecting.  The question we would ask at this point is whether the Street is overestimating the ability of the company to drive guest counts through the summer.  As we wrote on 4/23/12, “The evidence suggests that beverages are increasingly becoming a less important part of the vocabulary from McDonald’s’ management team.  With that in mind, foremost in our thoughts is what the company’s strategy will be to maintain top-line momentum over the next few months.” 

 

MACRO DOWNSIZES MCD - mcd us comps

 

 

Europe

 

Management stated that the U.K., Russia, and France drove the 2.9% comp in May, partially offset by Germany.  We expect Germany to be a key focus for investors heading into the second quarter earnings release on 7/23.  Europe represents 40% of total revenues and 39% of total operating profit for McDonald’s.  Overall, the print was a disappointment versus the consensus of 5.1% and the macro environment remains a concern.

 

MACRO DOWNSIZES MCD - mcd  eu comps

 

 

APMEA

 

APMEA comparable restaurant sales were perhaps the most glaring of the disappointments in the MCD press release; versus consensus expectations of 3.2%, the print came in at -1.7%.  Japan (SSS -11% in May!) and, to a lesser extent, China drove the comp lower.  Australia posted some positive results that partially offset the slump in China and Japan.  While we view the U.S. and Europe as being far more important than APMEA (18% of operating income), a disappointment of this magnitude in an important growth region for the company is not positive news.

 

MACRO DOWNSIZES MCD - mcd apmea comps

 

 

It has an Extra Value Menu but it is an Extra Value Stock?

 

The question now is, “does McDonald’s stock represent a compelling value purchase, even if its menu offerings may not?” 

 

If you believe valuation is a catalyst, then buying the stock here is likely a good idea.  The stock is nearing the bottom of its five-year valuation range and has typically been a safe haven for investors in weaker economic times.  In early March, however, the first mention of austerity impacting Europe moved us to write the following: “We are not buyers of the stock on this selloff.  In short, if austerity is having an impact it will not be a one month phenomenon.” 

 

The uncertainty in McDonald’s results is somewhat new and forecasting FY12 and FY13 EBITDA is only becoming more difficult as uncertainty mounts.  The volatility in the economies that McDonald’s operates in is, in some cases, so great that the staple nature of the company’s product is not sheltering sales to the extent that it has historically.  Observers, including us, are often tempted to assume that the company’s value offerings will perpetuate strong sales growth.  At this point, we lack confidence that the company has a sufficiently impactful pipeline of promotions to comp the strong U.S. performance during summer 2011.

 

If the Street is overly optimistic on management’s ability to drive traffic over the coming months, the cheap may get cheaper.  Short term trading opportunities notwithstanding, we’d avoid MCD on the long side for now.  The second quarter results and conference call will offer investors more clarity on the business’ prospects for the next year-to-eighteen months.

 

MACRO DOWNSIZES MCD - mcd ev to ebitda valuation

 

MACRO DOWNSIZES MCD - mcd ev ebitda price

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 11th of June through the 15th is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - WeekAhead

 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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