THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 24, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 33 points or -2.26% downside to 1289 and 0.24% upside to 1322. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/23 NYSE 643
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of 104
  • VOLUME: on 5/23 NYSE 863.01
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 1.93%
  • VIX:  as of 5/23 was at 22.33
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -0.67%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -4.57%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/23 closed at 1.83
    • Unchanged from the day prior 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.75
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.73
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.46
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.44 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Apr., est. 0.2% (prior -3.9% revised)
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex/Air, Apr., est. 0.8% (prior -0.8%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, week of May 19, est. 370k (prior 370k)
  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI prelim., May
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of May 20
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas change
  • 10:30am: Fed’s Dudley to speak on regional economy in New York at Federal Reserve building
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, May, est. 5 (prior 3)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
  • 1pm: Fed’s Dudley to speak at Council on Foreign Relations in New York
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes 

 GOVERNMENT:

    • EPA holds all-day meetings in D.C., Chicago on proposed rule governing greenhouse gas emissions from power generation, 8am
    • Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. releases quarterly report on bank industry earnings, 10am
    • NOAA issues seasonal hurricane forecast, 11am
    • Senate in session, House not in session
    • Senate Banking holds hearing on legislation to help homeowners refinance mortgages, 10am
    • SEC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 2pm 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Hewlett-Packard rose after announced plans to cut 27k jobs, had 2Q profit, sales that beat ests.
  • Facebook IPO debacle triggers legal debate over disclosure
  • Morgan Stanley’s Gorman said to join Facebook call on price
  • J&J-Bayer’s Xarelto rejected by U.S. panel for broader heart use
  • Deutsche Telekom CEO says complete sale of T-Mobile USA unlikely
  • European services, manufacturing contracted more than forecast in May
  • China manufacturing shrank for a 7th month
  • U.K. economy shrinks more than est. on building slump
  • April durable goods orders may have gained 0.2% after falling 3.9% in March
  • International Grains Council issues global wheat, corn, rice production est., 9am
  • U.S. Climate Prediction Center issues its preseason Atlantic hurricane forecast
  • Europe chiefs clash on Euro bonds as crisis summit bogs down
  • German May business confidence fell more than forecast
  • AIG can’t pursue some Countrywide claims in $10b lawsuit
  • Goldman Sachs’s Trott tells jury Buffett deal was kept secret
  • Goldman Sachs AGM
  • Bank of America, MERS lose bid to dismiss Texas filing fee suit
  • Jury found Google didn’t infringe Oracle’s patents in developing Android software 

EARNINGS:

    • Royal Bank of Canada (RY CN) 6am, C$1.18
    • Flowers Foods (FLO) 6:30am, $0.28
    • Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD CN) 6:30am, C$1.77
    • Ship Finance International Ltd (SFL), $0.42
    • Tiffany & Co (TIF) 7am, $0.69
    • HJ Heinz Co (HNZ) 7am, $0.79
    • Patterson (PDCO) 7am, $0.57
    • Signet Jewelers Ltd (SIG) 7:30am, $0.91
    • Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO) 7:30am, $0.35
    • Toro Co (TTC) 8:30am, $2.13
    • VeriFone Systems (PAY) 4pm, $0.61 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COMMODITIES – interesting that the ISI’s of the world still aren’t talking about things like Commodities crashing as a bearish leading indicator for demand (CRB down -13.8% from Feb top, oversold here, but remains broken).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – Germany’s PMI print for May was awful (45 vs 46.2 in April, which was also awful); the DAX would need to close above and hold 6383 to re-capture its 1st line of resistance; not happening despite the fresh wave of rumoring about whatever.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – China’s growth data is not yet slowing at a slower rate, and we think that’s why the Shanghai Comp snapped its TREND line of 2372 again in the last week (sold our long position on that); PMIs are made up, to a degree, but 48.7 for May is what it is, lower than April.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


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