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BWLD: HAMMERTIME

We have been hammering home the BWLD idea since early January.  Our CEO Keith McCullough just shorted BWLD and we will be highlighting the BWLD idea on our best ideas call Wednesday May 23rd at 11am.  Contact Sales@hedgeye.com if you want to listen.  

 

The BWLD thesis: This stock is highly valued as it one of the few “growth” plays in casual dining.  The year-over-year increase in wing prices has a direct impact on EPS that we believe consensus is underestimating.  We expect negative FY12 EPS revisions over the next two-three months.

 

BWLD: HAMMERTIME - bwld


MACAU WEEKLY: BETTER BUT NOT GREAT

Lowering our May forecast to HK$25.5-26.5 billion or 8-12% YoY growth

 

 

Average daily table revenues (ADTR) increased slightly from last week, HK$714 million to HK729 million, but should’ve been better.  ADTR was actually down 6% YoY.  As a result, we are lowering our full month forecast to HK$25.5-26.5 billion, representing only 8-12% YoY growth.  At this time, we don’t know what kind of impact hold has played. 

 

MACAU WEEKLY: BETTER BUT NOT GREAT - MACAU1

 

For market share, LVS improved its monthly performance by 50bps but is still well below the 19-20% share it should be garnering following the opening of Sands Cotai Central.  MPEL’s share dropped to 12.3% which is 100-150bps below recent trend.  Galaxy continues to surprise on the upside as does SJM.  Wynn picked up some sequential share but is still well below trend.

 

MACAU WEEKLY: BETTER BUT NOT GREAT - MACAU2


THE M3: MACAU CPI

The Macau Metro Monitor, May 19, 2012

 

 

MACAU CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR APRIL 2012 DSEC

Macau CPI for April 2012 increased by 6.76% YoY and 0.61% MoM.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.49%

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED

Key Takeaways

* Default probabilities rising globally. European sovereign CDS widened across the board last week. Simlarly, nearly all European Bank credit default swaps widened last week. Italian and French banks saw their spreads widen by double digits WoW. Domestic bank CDS followed suit. 

 

* Junk bonds signaling trouble. High yield rates rose 53 bps last week to 7.65%, underscoring increased risk in the market. 

 

* Muni debt default risk on the rise. The MCDX, our preferred measure of municipal credit risk, rose sharply last week.

 

* It has been a while since we've seen this many risk indicators flashing red on the short and intermediate term durations.  

 

* If there's a silver lining, our macro team's quantitative model shows that the XLF has 5.4% upside to immediate-term resistance and only 1.0% downside to immediate term support.

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary  

• Short-term(WoW): Negative / 0 of 12 improved / 8 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged  

• Intermediate-term(WoW): Negative / 3 of 12 improved / 7 out of 12 worsened / 2 of 12 unchanged  

• Long-term(WoW): Neutral / 3 of 12 improved / 3 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Summary 2


1. US Financials CDS Monitor – Swaps widened for every domestic financial company reference entity we track last week. MS ended the week at 447 bps, up 45 bps, GS ended at 346 bps, also up 45 bps. 

 

Widened the most WoW: SLM, MTG, AIG

Widened the least WoW: UNM, ACE, TRV

Widened the most MoM:  MTG, RDN, JPM

Widened the least MoM:  UNM, ACE, TRV

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - US CDS

 

2. European Financial CDS - Bank swaps were wider in Europe last week for 38 of the 39 reference entities we track. Notably, French banks widened dramatically. Societe Generale widened by 65 bps to 402 bps while Credit Agricole widened by 69 bps to 404 bps. The debt markets are casting their vote on the outcome of the French elections. Meanwhile, Italian bank swaps weren't far behind with increases of 48 to 97 bps week-over-week. Spanish banks were wider as well, though more modestly than their French or Italian counterparts.

 

We've also included a few Chinese banks for reference at the bottom of the table, and we will be soon rolling a table of Asian Financial CDS. The three Chinese banks we track showed week over week increases, but are generally trading in the low-200 bps range.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Euro CDS 2

 

3. European Sovereign CDS – European sovereign swaps also widened across the board last week. Spanish sovereign swaps widened the least on a percentage basis (+2.3%) to 554 bps, while Irish sovereign swaps widened the most by 15.8% to 712 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Sov CDS table

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Sov CDS 1

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Sov CDS 2

 

4. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High yield rates rose sharply last week, increasing by 53 bps to end the week at 7.65% versus 7.11% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - High Yield

 

5. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – Following high yield's lead, the leveraged loan index posted its sharpest decline since mid-2011, dropping 23 points last week 1652.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Leveraged Loan Index

 

6. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread rose 1.5 bps last week, ending the week at 38.8 bps versus last week’s print of 37.3 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - TED spread 1

 

7. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – Commodity prices continued to cool off reflecting the strengthening dollar. The JOC index fell 3.3 points, ending the week at -11.1 versus -7.8 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - JOC index

 

8. Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread was roughly flat over last week, ending the week at 38 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Euribor OIS

 

9. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing more from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - ECB

 

10. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1. Last week spreads widened, ending the week at 167 bps versus 152 bps the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - MCDX

 

11. Baltic Dry Index – The Baltic Dry Index measures international shipping rates of dry bulk cargo, mostly commodities used for industrial production. Generally speaking, higher demand for such goods, as manifested in higher shipping rates, indicates economic expansion, though there are supply dynamics at play as well. Last week the index rose 3 points, ending the week at 1141 versus 1138 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Baltic Dry

 

12. 2-10 Spread – We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.  Last week the 2-10 spread tightened a dramatic 16 bps to 143 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - 2 10 spread

 

13. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 5.4% upside to TRADE resistance and 1.0% downside to TRADE support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - XLF macro

 

Margin Debt - April: +0.93 standard deviations 

We publish NYSE Margin Debt every month when it’s released. NYSE Margin debt hit its post-2007 peak in April of 2011 at $320.7 billion. The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid against NYSE margin debt going back to 1997. In this chart both the S&P 500 and margin debt have been inflation adjusted (back to 1990 dollar levels), and we’re showing margin debt levels in standard deviations relative to the mean covering the period 1. While this may sound complicated, the message is really quite simple. First, when margin debt gets to 1.5 standard deviations or greater, as it did last April, it has historically been a signal of extreme risk in the equity market - the last two times it did this the equity market lost half its value in the ensuing period. We flagged this for the first time back in May 2011. The second point is that margin debt trends tend to exhibit high degrees of autocorrelation. In other words, the last few months’ change in margin debt is the best predictor of the change we’ll see in the next few months. We would need to see it approach -0.5 to -1.0 standard deviations before the trend runs its course. There’s plenty of room for short/intermediate term reversals within this broader secular move. Overall, however, this setup represents a long-term headwind for the market. One limitation of this series is that it is reported on a lag.  

 

The chart shows data through April. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: FINANCIALS FLASHING RED  - Margin Debt

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

Robert Belsky

 

Having trouble viewing the charts in this email?  Please click the link at the bottom of the note to view in your browser. 

 

 


Windy

This note was originally published at 8am on May 07, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.”

-Hosea 8:7

 

It’s windy out there this morning. But, then again, if you look back at where Global Stock and Commodity markets all peaked in 2012, it’s been windy since March. Today is not a day to freak-out. It’s just another day to price in what’s been happening.

 

The tail ends of this morning’s Global Macro meltdown will have a lot more to do with Global Growth Slowing and hedge funds caught off-sides long oil than it does France. Friday’s US Employment report was a mess.

 

The aforementioned quote came from Seth Klarman’s year-end 2011 letter ($22B hedge fund, The Baupost Group). We were obviously not alone in realizing that crossing the Rubicon of sovereign deficit and debt ratios would structurally impair Global Growth. Klarman, Einhorn, Dalio – these are the new leaders of Wall Street 2.0 – they all nailed Growth Slowing too.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

If you weren’t long US stocks or commodities last week, you probably had a very good week. Everything is relative while you are watching the whirlwind, I suppose. Our allocation to Commodities in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model remains 0%.

 

As Growth Slows and hopes for an iQe4 upgrade abate, we think the US Dollar stops going down and that, in turn, will provide a much needed break for American and Global Consumers of food and energy alike. We call it Deflating The Inflation.

 

Now, to be clear, this was only the 2ndweek of the last 8 where the US Dollar didn’t drop. And, as long as we have Ben Bernanke promising Qe as the elixir of a centrally planned life, America’s currency will continue to have headwinds. That all said, bullish is as bullish does, and the US Dollar has been up for 4 consecutive days. That’s a good thing.

 

Dollar up (in the immediate-term) means most things stocks and commodities go down. We call it the Correlation Risk. It’s what most perma-bulls got addicted to at the Q1 tops of 2008, 2010, 2011, and now, evidently, 2012. When the Dollar Debauchery stops, beta chasing anything inflation stops. Inflation and Growth are not the same thing.

 

Lets score that statement in real-time. With the US Dollar Index up +1.0% last week, here’s what everything else did:

  1. US STOCKS: SP500 -2.4%, Nasdaq -3.7%, Russell2000 -4.1%
  2. COMMODITIES: CRB Index -2.6, WTIC Oil -6.1%, Copper -2.6%
  3. BONDS: both German Bunds and US Treasuries hit YTD highs last week (UST 10yr = 1.83% today)

Another way to look at how perverse Old Wall Street has become when begging for Bernanke’s Policies To Inflate is that the US Dollar Index has developed an immediate-term positive correlation to US Equity Volatility of +0.93.

 

Think about that.

 

A credible currency costs this market a lot more than central planners think. With the USD up +1% last week, US Equity Volatility (VIX) spiked +17.8% week-over-week. That’s not “price stability”, Mr. Bernanke. That’s not good.

 

Volatility kills returns. Ask anyone who has successfully not lost money versus their 2007 high-water marks how hard it’s been to generate absolute returns and you’ll get the point.

 

One of the best strategies to not lose money has been not getting picked off ahead of any of these major stock and commodity market draw-downs (Q1 to Q3 SP500 draw-downs of -15-30% in 2008, 2010, 2011).

 

That’s why we’re so focused on the slope of growth as opposed to the level. As growth slows, “cheap” stocks get cheaper.

 

Valuation is not a catalyst until growth either slows at a slower rate or you have some sort of “event” whereby a cheap asset gets something like a management change or a takeout bid.

 

The best news I can give you this morning is that Deflating The Inflation at the pump has the highest probability of giving the US Consumer in particular a much needed tax break for Memorial Day Weekend.

 

I’m not suggesting our Growth Slowing call stops right here, right now. I’m just reminding you how our globally interconnected economic growth and inflation model works. Unlike most models that have failed you, ours goes both ways.

 

Long and short. All great teams play this game both ways (even when it’s windy).

 

Immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, French Stocks (CAC40), and the SP500 are now $1631-1652, $112.45-118.18, $79.34-79.81, 3107-3279, and 1364-1389, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Windy - Chart of the Day

 

Windy - Virtual Portfolio


FL: 1Q12 Report Card


Conclusion: FL's 1Q results support our positive outlook on the name. The incremental deltas in the quarter reflect that not only is there still substantial operational improvement from key initiatives ahead, but also that European results weren’t as onerous as expected. In fact, Europe has turned positive May-to-date, which is a stark contrast to most other retailers with exposure to Europe. With early indications suggesting a solid start to Q2 and compares getting easier in 2H, we like the name here.


We continue to think the key growth initiatives that will play the biggest role over the intermediate-term will be in women’s and apparel.

 

1) In Lady Foot Locker, a redesigned store format is expected to be set by Fall. In the meantime, the company is adding significantly more apparel to the mix with the addition of bra and bottom bars. Women already come into Lady Foot Locker for shoes. What this mix shift presents is the opportunity to drive incremental traffic looking for apparel. With this banner still operating below all others, we expect the seismic shift in strategy to be nothing but an incremental positive.


2) As for apparel, the company is adding more of it to the mix. Margins remain below footwear, but the gap continues to converge. It’s not just the product itself that will be traffic driver, but how the product is presented that is likely to provide the biggest boost to traffic initially. One of the most notable changes to new store format in the works is to take all apparel and display it on the wall and in turn move all footwear to the floor. With the early success of this format, we’d be surprised if we don’t see broad adoption by year end. Moreover, the emphasis on presentation will likely increase vendor interest in showcasing a greater assortment of exclusive product i.e. better for both parties.


The positive momentum behind this story remains firmly in place and is so far driving solid results at a time when it should be its most trying. With tailwinds and easing comps come 2H, we are shaking out at 5% and 10% above consensus for this year and next. With many of these initiatives not kicking in meaningfully until next year, investors that were concerned over European exposure can check that box and now have greater visibility into forward earnings – especially relative to other retail peers.

 

What Drove the Beat?

Strong sales with tighter cost control drove the $0.09 beat relative to $0.74E. Importantly, this was the tenth consecutive quarter of a positive sale/inventory spread and a sequential improvement up 3pts to +10% against tough comps. Positive spreads and gross margin expansion continues to be the new normal for FL and the expectation.

 

Casey Flavin

Director

FL: 1Q12 Report Card  - FL S

 

Outlook: In order to properly measure performance relative to original expectations, we look at management’s Q1 results relative to management guidance as well as any updates to previously provided full year 2013 outlook:


FL: 1Q12 Report Card  - FL outlook

 

Highlights from the Call:

 

Comps: +9.7% (DTC up +16.5%; Stores +9.1%)

Feb = +High-teen

March = +HSD

April =  +MSD

**May-to-date comps in-line at +HSD

 

All of divisions posted positive comp ex-Eur

Europe finished Q1 with -MSD comp decline after starting Feb
down -HSD (March/Apr -LSD)

Europe is now up LSD

FL US, FL Canada, and Foot Action all up ~DD

 

Champs comps 20%+

DTC +16.5%

CCS positive comps, but less than rest of DTC

Suggests rebranding launch in Feb gaining traction perhaps indicating turn

 

FW/App/Acc all up strong; Apparel up nearly +20%

In FW - Men's and kids strongest, women's was mixed

In Men's - basketball strongest, training and classics also strong - running positive but smaller

In running, NKE Free and New Balance Minimus very strong

 

GM:  +132bps due to:

  • Occupancy +100bps
  • +30bps from merchandise margins
    • Higher in US across divisions led by apparel
    • margins down slightly in Eur
    • FW margins increased, stayed ahead of apparel margins

SG&A:

  • SG&A increased by only $8mm
  • Kept tight control over store wages
  • Spent $2mm more on marketing
  • Showing success with increased traffic and conversion rates

Stores:

  • Opened 25 stores most in Eur
  • Closed 34 stores most in U.S.
  • Will continue to close unproductive stores over balance of year

BS:

  • Inventory - up slightly on Constant currency basis
    • Turns improving
  • $909mm in cash
  • CapEx: Board approved add'n $10mm increase in Capex plan to $170mm from $160mm
    • Some of incremental increase specifically intended for women's and tech upgrades in allocation and warehouse mgmt systems
  • Repo's 878k shares for $27mm - first under $400mm SRA

Outlook:

FY:

  • Expect MSD comp
  • Can chase if demand warrants
  • Expect further GM leverage, but more modestly than in recent years
    • 30-40 bps in Q1 in-line
    • SG&A down 60-80bps (could be a bit higher given Q1)
  • Fx impact less than $0.01 in EPS in Q1
  • Expect similar impact in Q2
  • FY Fx would impact EPS ~$0.05 (in-line with plan)

Categories:

  • Basketball key driver
    • Strong Jordan also in classics, retro Jordan sold out almost immediately
    • Adidas very strong in stores and online in both Rose as well as Hardcore and Somoa
    • Converse contributed as well
  • Running not as strong, tech and lightweight offset by legacy styles
    • Europe saw boost from intro of NKE Free during Q1
  • Slides were a big category in the qtr
  • Apparel: NKE Jordan , Adidas, and UA fleece all performed well

Update on Initiatives:

 

Apparel: 

  • intro new Nike NFL apparel in Champs stores
  • New women's bra and bottoms in Lady FL stores
  • Lady FL apparel sales significantly outpaced FW

Kids:

  • Has been very strong recently off a small base
  • Have planned several pop-up stores for BTS
  • Planning to open select kids stores in Europe this yr
  • Allocating more product towards kids

Women's:

  • In the process of coming up with a redesigned Lady Foot Locker format (as discussed at analyst day)
  • Also mentioned that they are testing a new women's concept altogether
  • Will be some time before they get full feedback on it

 

Q&A:

 

Women's /Lady Foot Locker:

  • As part of the new women's growth initiative, part of adding more apparel includes bra and bottoms bars
  • Looking at having new store design nailed down by fall
  • Women already coming in for shoes, looking to offer more apparel to drive incremental traffic
  • Looking to have new concept prototype in place by end of the year to test new growth in women's
  • Still performing below the level of men's chains = room for substantial upside - can match men's

New Store Formats:

  • Will have 10 new prototypes in for Champs by end of Spring that they will be able to measure to gauge roll outs next year
  • Core FL prototypes about 6mo behind Champs

Europe:

  • Greece "somewhat of a basket case" only 6 stores there
  • Southern Europe (Port, Spain, Italy) more challenging - still productive and profitable stores
  • Northern Europe (Ger, Fr, Benelux, etc) - performing better
  • See it as a three tier performance environment
  • NKE Free was a positive performer, Adi classics, Converse
  • Apparel (a bigger business in Eur) has underperformed - down a little bit (-LSD)
  • Think colder weather hampered sales
  • Now running up a little bit
  • Forecasting apparel down LSD for the year
  • Fashion getting more impacted due to higher unemployment
    • Ex: selling NKE Free better up in North Eur; well in South and more challenged in Italy and Spain. Fashion more discretionary.

Private Label:

  • Branded remains very strong, private coming on
  • 'vendors coming out with some great product' - NKE and Adi in particular
  • Continuing to improve PL margins - branded still higher but improving
  • Shifting some of private brand business to Team Edition printed apparel from the brands

Running:

  • A lot of newness coming out - Lightweight is really driving the business
  • Re tougher comps in 2H - Olympics will help
  • People shifting from higher ticket heavier FW to lower ticket lightweight which is reducing overall sales $$

UA Relationships:

  • UA - realizing to be successful in the mall, need to work with FL
  • Expect tailwind from World Cup, Olympics, full season of FB and BB

Fw/Apparel Margins:

  • Footwear margins still increasing - cont to increase product flow that is driving expansion
  • Apparel still below FW margins, did narrow the gap
  • As they build apparel business, expect margins to expand
  • Higher FW margins driven by:
    • Selective pricing to offset higher AUC
    • Product flow is resulting in more full-price sales
  • Still expect 30-40bps of expansion for the balance of the year
  • Gap b/w IMU to AUC has narrowed - product flow has helped offset

Europe - Event Impact on SG&A:

  • Will get benefit from 1) apparel (t-shirts to high price letter jackets), and 2) shoes similar to what athletes are wearing
  • New technology in shoes will drive interest + traffic

Comps:

  • Traffic, AUR and conversion were all up in 1Q

Europe - Competitive Env:

  • Competition getting weaker and some bankruptcies have enabled them to take over some leases
  • Added 6 stores in Poland and Czech-Rep
  • Those stores doing very well, expect to open more in these regions

Product Costs:

  • Expect further increases expected - mostly from labor increases, but more modest in 2013

E-commerce:

  • In non-East Bay sites, (FL, Lady FL, Champs, Kids FL, banners are up +3-40%
  • Under penetrated in Eur
  • Have sites in UK, Benelux, France, Germany and planning to roll out to Southern countries - planning to add 1-2 by year end with more next Spring

SG&A Costs:

  • Expect roughly 60-80bps of leverage each qtr
  • Expect continued incremental marketing spend

NKE - Flyknit:

  • Will launch in best running stores and on Eastbay - expect bigger boost to come in 2013

Basketball/Running Mix:

  • New tech in lightweight drove demand for running increasing share over last 1yr+
  • 3 things have driven recent surge in Basketball:
    • 1. New tech - lightweight & support
    • 2. Number of key players with own shoes has grown - no longer just Jordan, LeBron, etc.
    • 3. Better styling

Store Openings / Rent:

  • Still pulling out of underperforming stores - see more opportunities there
  • Opening more Champs stores as % of new opening mix - more underpenetrated + better performing

Champs Outperformance:

  • First banner to be defined and clarified - about 6-8 months ahead of other banners
  • Pushed apparel and straightened that out sooner than others
  • First to step up marketing for = realizing those efforts
  • Expect other banners to start ramping  as well, but not necessarily to degree that Champs has (20%+)

JCP/NKE Shop Threat:

  • Nike currently sells product at JCP at a lower level
  • Not as concerned bc FL's NKE product higher level = better quality
  • Typically when others open in the mall, helps FL - drives traffic to them bc better assortments
  • "our merchants and our position in the market with Nike will allow us to be well-positioned and to be able to beat somebody who that's not their forte." - Ken Hicks

Basketball:

  • Competitive advantage bc of exclusives
  • Have best assortment from key players NKE, Adi, UA, and Reebok
  • Vs. running where they have benefitted similarly to everyone else
  • Still think they can have more running - underpenetrated

 


















 





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