“A different world cannot be built by indifferent people.”
-Jack’s fortune cookie
My son Jack was born right around the same time that I came up with this crazy idea to start Hedgeye. I love them both dearly.
Last night was the typical Sunday night at the McCullough dinner table. Our kids were exhausted from spending a beautiful day outside, but fired up enough to pound back a few more fortune cookies.
By the time I made my last cover/buy move late on Friday afternoon, that’s pretty much how I felt too.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
As my son grows up, he’ll be taught that it’s always better to be early in life than late. If he ever gets into this business, we’re going to have to work on how early though. Being too early, for too long, is also called being wrong.
In buying US Equities, I’m at least a few days early. That’s definitely better than being a few months late in selling them. The last 2 months have been flat out nasty. The highest conviction position you should have had was Cash.
We peaked at 91% Cash. That’s 5% lower than where we went in Q3 of 2008. This morning’s Cash position in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model is 61% (down from 85% at the start of last week).
Here’s how our asset allocation looks this morning:
- Cash = 61%
- US Equities = 27% (SP500, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, and Apple – SPY, XLY, XLV, and AAPL)
- Int’l Equities = 12% (China and Brazil – CAF and EWZ)
- Int’l Currencies = 0%
- Fixed Income = 0%
- Commodities = 0%
Not being long anything in Commodities wasn’t something Jack came up with at dinner last night. It’s been part of our Q2 Global Macro Themes calls that include Fed Fighting and Bernanke’s Bubbles (email if you’d like an updated slide deck with our refreshed risk management levels – all of the long-term bubble charts are in there, most of them Commodities).
Buying Brazilian Equities early was my biggest mistake on the long-side (buying anything Global Equities other than Chinese Equities has pretty much been a big mistake since the end of Q1). Of the major countries, China is the world’s top performer since April.
My long SPY (SP500) position is at 9% in the asset allocation model and that’s likely to have a short leash. If the SP500 doesn’t hold our long-term TAIL line of 1282 support, I won’t have a position in it at all. That’s when the crash (YTD peak to trough drop of 20% or more) risk comes into play. Being early by a few days is one thing – buying into a crash is not what we do.
With the SP500 down -4.3% last week, down -7.4% for the month-to-date, and down -8.7% from the YTD high, this is either the only obvious “buying opportunity” we’ve had since early January, or a not so friendly signal for the weeks and months ahead.
Growth Slowing and Deflating The Inflation – we get that. What we don’t get is how quickly these fundamental research factors get fully priced in. That’s why we reserve the unalienable right to change our mind any minute of the day.
If we get a lift today and/or tomorrow, we’re likely going to sell into it. That’s because A) we’re too long and B) the Macro Catalyst Calendar starts to get gnarly again starting on Wednesday:
- Wednesday = New Home Sales for April (expectations are high at 335,000 given the weather in Feb/Mar)
- Thursday = Durable Goods for April are “expected” to rise, sequentially, versus March – that’s not a given either
- Friday = University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (for May) is expected to hold fairly elevated gains at 77.8
Then you have the long weekend…
And then… you have Europe, a potential mess of a Q2 “earnings season”, and Volcker Rule implementation in July.
Don’t be indifferent. Keep moving out there. And keep a Fortune Cookie or two nearby if you need to feel better about America’s economic future. If we don’t evolve our policy making process soon, our kids are going to need all the help they can get.
My immediate-term support and resistance ranges Gold, Oil (WTIC), US Dollar Index, EUR/USD, 10-year Treasury Yield, and the SP500 are now $1, $90.57-94.42, $80.67-81.81, $1.26-1.28, 1.66-1.80%, and 1, respectively.
Best of luck out there this week,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 21, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 53 points or -1.02% downside to 1282 and 3.07% upside to 1335.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/18 NYSE -1586
- Up from the prior day’s trading of -2242
- VOLUME: on 5/18 NYSE 1162.10
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 23.00%
- VIX: as of 5/18 was at 25.10
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 2.49%
- Year-to-date increase of 7.26%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/18 closed at 2.08
- Down from the day prior at 2.30
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.76
- Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.72
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.47
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.43
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
- NATO Summit of World Leaders in Chicago
- Senate in session, House not in session
- Interior Secretary Salazar, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Chief Watson conduct forum on oil well blowout preventers and federal oversight, 8am
- BASF CFO Engel, International Energy Agency Deputy Director Jones among speakers at Deloitte energy conf., 8am
- Deadline for SEC to respond to Senate inquiries seeking explanation for decision to place chief investigator on leave
- Donald H. Layton takes over as CEO of Freddie Mac
- Financial Industry Regulatory Authority holds annual conference; opening address by CFTC Chairman Gensler
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Alibaba to buy 20% stake in itself back from Yahoo for ~$7.1b
- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to speak at investor conference in New York
- JPMorgan CIO Risk Chief Irvin Goldman said to have history of trading losses
- DaVita, a provider of kidney dialysis services, agreed to buy HealthCare Partners for ~$4.42b
- China’s Wanda Group to buy AMC Entertainment for $2.6b * Raj Gupta, former Goldman director, goes on trial
- Premier Wen says China to focus on growth, Xinhua says
- China to speed up approvals for qualified foreign investors
- Nasdaq CEO says ‘poor design’ in IPO software delayed Facebook; SEC to review problems
- U.S. ITC judge may release ruling this week on Kodak’s $1b patent dispute vs. Apple, RIM
- Fed’s Lockhart says QE3 can’t be ruled out amid European risks
- Facebook closed at $38.23 Friday, with underwriter support keeping it above $38 IPO price
- Vodafone may be forced to share Cable & Wireless: Telegraph
- Apple, Samsung are unlikely to resolve their worldwide fight over mobile device patents in court-ordered talks that start today between their CEOs, said lawyers following the case
- German, French leaders meet this wk to map out a revised plan for the euro as the Group of 8 exposed disagreement on a rescue strategy
- Osborne says U.K. is making contingency plans for euro-zone turmoil
- Canadian Pacific Railway workers said they may strike as soon as Weds.
- No IPOs expected to price today
- NATO Summit, China, JPMorgan, Formula 1: Week Ahead May 21-26
- Lowe’s Cos (LOW) 6am, $0.42; Preview
- Tech Data (TECD) 6am, $1.16
- Krispy Kreme (KKD) 6:30am, $0.09
- Campbell Soup (CPB) 7:30am, $0.52; Preview
- Tidewater (TDW) 8:03am, $0.60
- Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.20
- Post Holdings (POST) 4:17pm, $0.48
- Nordson Corp (NDSN) 4:30pm, $0.87
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COMMODITIES – Deflating The Inflation of Bernanke’s Bubbles remains our top Q2 Macro Theme, so on the bounce you don’t want to be buying anything commodities related – energy and basic materials stocks are easily the worst looking in our Sector studies, so use the bounces as selling opportunities.
- Investors Least Bullish in 2012 as Crisis Escalates: Commodities
- Ex-SocGen Commodity Officials Plan Hedge Fund in Final Quarter
- Oil Rises First Time in Seven Days; Goldman Sees Tighter Supply
- Copper Climbs for Second Day as China Pledges to Boost Growth
- Gold Seen Climbing a Third Day in London on Europe Debt Concern
- Coffee Reaches Eight-Month High as European Stockpiles Decline
- Grain-Pit Traders Squeezed Out as CME Expands to Match ICE Hours
- Fonterra May Cut Milk Payout on Price Drop, Curbing Supply
- Palm Oil Ends Little Changed as Europe’s Crisis May Hurt Demand
- Saudi Aramco Plans to Start Operating Jazan Refinery Before 2017
- Oil Decline Exaggerated as Market Tightening, Goldman Sachs Says
- Japan Copper-Cable Shipments Climb in April for Third Month
- Chinese Iron Ore, Coking Coal Buyers Defer Imports, Mirae Says
- Wheat Climbs to Eight-Month High on Weather
- Wheat Climbs to Highest Level Since September on Dry Weather
- Speculators Boost Gas Bets as Surplus Shrinks: Energy Markets
- Chesapeake Director’s Firm Paid $343 Million Amid Ties: Energy
US DOLLAR – after 3 consecutive up weeks (up 12 of the last 13 days), the Correlation Risk spike to -0.91-0.99 (depending on your USD vs whatever pair) takes a breather. Dollar down this morning finally stops oil, copper, etc from going down and Petro-Dollar equity markets (Russia, Norway, Saudi) all lead gainers #interconnected.
CHINA – plenty of bears out there, but this is the best major country in terms of stock performance for Q2 to-date, and the Chinese have plenty of policy ammo that you can wake up to any day of the week, both fiscal and monetary (see China Securities Daily for the latest whispers from Wen).
The Hedgeye Macro Team
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Clearly, the opening of Galaxy Macau on May 15, 2011 was a big catalyst for Cotai growth. Mass revenue growth on Cotai has outpaced the peninsula for 12 straight months. For VIP, the migration resumed earlier – in February 2011. With Sands Cotai Central’s (SCC) opening in mid-April, those trends should continue and probably would continue even without the opening of SCC. SJM and Wynn, the two peninsula only operators, look to be continued market share losers until they open their respective Cotai properties, likely in 2015 or 2016 for Wynn and 2016 or 2017 for SJM.
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