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Initial Claims - Uneventful Print

Initial jobless claims rose 3k last week to 370k, though was flat after the 3k upward revision to last week's data. Rolling claims fell 4.75k to 375k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell 18.3k to 323k. Last week we profiled the year-over-year trend in rolling NSA claims as a barometer for avoiding the inherent seasonal distortions. That analysis showed that claims were still improving at roughly at 10% YoY rate. This morning's data point continues that trend.  

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - headline 4

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - rolling 2

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - NSA

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - NSA rolling

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - S P

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - FED

2-10 Spread Breaks Down Further

The 2-10 spread tightened another 8 bps versus last week to 148 bps as of yesterday. The ten-year bond yield fell 6 bps to 177 bps.

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - 2 10

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - 2 10 QoQ

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - Subsector Performance

CLAIMS TREAD WATER WHILE YIELD SPREAD COMPRESSES FURTHER - table

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur

Robert Belsky