THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 11, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -1.25% downside to 1341 and 0.66% upside to 1367. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/10 NYSE 717
    • Up from the prior day’s trading of -1080
  • VOLUME: on 5/10 NYSE 784.06
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -16.60%
  • VIX:  as of 5/10 was at 18.82
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -6.23%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -19.53%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/10 closed at 1.60
    • Down from the day prior at 1.65 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.85
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.87
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.59
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.61 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Producer Price Index, April, est. 0.0% (prior 0.0%)
  • 9:15am: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Fort Worth, Texas
  • 9:55am: UMich Confidence, May prelim, est. 76.0 (prior 76.4)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 2/15/2042 range
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count 

GOVERNMENT:

    • SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro speaks at Investment Company
    • Institute’s general meeting, 8am
    • House meets in pro-forma session, Senate not in session
    • CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters
    • FDA advisory panel meets on safety, effectiveness of weight- loss devices stomach balloons, bands and sutures, 8am
    • Transportation Dept. holds meeting on commercial space transport, 8am    

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the firm suffered a $2b trading loss after an “egregious” failure in a unit managing risks
  • Facebook IPO said to receive weaker-than-expected early demand
  • Facebook IPO overvalued at $96b in global investors’ poll
  • Yahoo! CEO Scott Thompson said to have told executives he didn’t provide resume
  • EU maintains forecast for 0.3% euro-area contraction in 2012,
  • sees euro-region economy expanding 1% in 2013
  • Dewey & LeBoeuf employee lawsuit says 450 firings to come today
  • China’s industrial production grew least since 2009 in April, retail sales rose less than est., inflation below tgt
  • IEA sees tighter oil market, high prices amid Iran supply risk
  • Toyota surpasses GM in global auto sales in 1Q 2012
  • Japan’s central bank revised its guidelines for reserve mgmt, pledging liquidity in case of global emergency
  • Gilead HIV pill wins FDA panel backing as first to prevent virus
  • Gilead faces vote from FDA panel on Quad pill for HIV
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s weight-loss pill gained the backing of a FDA advisory panel; call today at 8am
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble suggested the euro area could handle Greece dropping out, raising pressure on Greek political leaders struggling to form a govt. amid a rise in anti-bailout sentiment 

 EARNINGS:

    • Enerplus (ERF CN) 6am, C$(0.01)
    • TMX Group (X CN) 6am, C$0.88
    • Nvidia (NVDA US) 7:30am, $0.15
    • B2Gold (BTO CN) 8:41am, $0.06
    • Emera (EMA CN) 9:48am, C$0.71
    • Katanga Mining (KAT CN) Pre-mkt, $0.01
    • Iamgold (IMG CN) Post-mkt, $0.26 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Gold Bulls Weakest in Month as Investors Buy Dollar: Commodities
  • Oil Heads for Second Weekly Decline on Europe, Excess Supplies
  • Cotton Declines to 21-Month Low on Increasing Global Stockpiles
  • Commodities Erase Advance for the Year in Worst Run Since 2008
  • Copper Heads for Second Weekly Drop on Slowing Chinese Economy
  • Gold Declines to Four-Month Low as Europe Concern Boosts Dollar
  • Corn Prices Decline After U.S. Forecasts Gain in Inventories
  • Cocoa Falls After Ghana Sells and Money Managers’ Holdings Rise
  • China’s Gold Demand Seen Flat as Economy Slows, Price Drops
  • Cooking-Oil Imports by India Jump on Lower Domestic Supplies
  • Oil May Fall on Greek Struggle to Form Government, Survey Shows
  • Iraq Oil Output Beating Iran Ends Saddam Legacy: Energy Markets
  • Chinalco Said to Seek $1 Billion in IPO of Peruvian Mining Unit
  • Commodities Decline in Worst Run Since 2008
  • China’s Backing Signals Pan American Is No YPF: Argentina Credit
  • Palm Oil Drops by Most in Five Months as Malaysian Exports Fall
  • India to Export Wheat From State Reserves After Granaries Swell 

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – back into crash mode this morning ahead of whatever this next central bad bank plan is going to be, down -1.3% (down 22% from YTD high); rests of Europe mean reverting to the crash tapes. Professional Knife Catchers, Unite.

RUSSIA - down another -1.9% this morning (down -16.6% since March 14th when most Global Equity markets topped for the year) and this is a good example of why the USD Correlation Risk matters so much – Russia is a Petro Dollar market, so with the USD up for the 8th consecutive day (and the Petro snapping my $113.87 Brent line), this is not good.

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ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Growth Slowing data continues to roll in on both Industrial Production (+9.3%, lowest since April 2009) and Retail Sales (+14.2% vs 15.3% in March), but so does Deflating The Inflation w/ Chinese CPI under control finally at 3.4%. Just like I said in 2009, I say you buy China when the growth data is slowing at a slower rate and inflation improves. Chinese stocks down -0.6% on the “news.”

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team