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MPEL 1Q12 CONF CALL NOTES

Yes hold was high but Mass continued it's upward trend

 

 

"These results highlight our continued success in developing our mass market business, particularly at the premium end, where we have further strengthened our diversified range of products, services and amenities to address Macau's fastest growing gaming segment."

 

- Mr. Lawrence Ho, Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Melco Crown Entertainment

 

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Opened 3 new junket rooms at CoD recently, which should benefit their RC volumes in 2Q
  • Opened their new premium mass/gaming segment CoD earlier this month
  • Ted Chan has assumed the role of COO
  • MSC: continue to work with the government to bring this project to reality. Think that they can restart construction at the end of Q2
  • Believe that their Mass hold rate will be in the 25-30% range going forward due to some changes that they have put in place at CoD
  • Hold adjusted EBITDA would have been $210MM
    • Hold adjusted EBITDA margin of 22% 
  • 2Q guidance:
    • D&A: $90-95MM
    • Corporate expense: $18-20MM
    • Net interest: $23-25MM

 

Q&A

  • MSC budget of $1.9BN is still their target budget.  They are still bidding out the project with several construction companies and have not gotten any push back so far.
  • They are looking at improving the VIP segment of their slot offering and that has benefited their slot win.  There are a lot of synergies between the premium mass business and high limit slot area.  Their recently opened premium gaming area includes a new high limit slots room.
  • They are still looking at building a sky walk between CoD and Venetian.  They are in discussions with Sands China.
  • With the table cap they have been on a table optimization program for the last 4 quarters. They have moved some of the junket VIP tables from Altira to CoD. They moved about 15-20 tables from Altira. 
  • SCC impact/ effect: Currently, they just have a limited offering but even so they have seen a lift in traffic and visitation to the Cotai Strip and CoD.  Think that once the property is fully open it will be even better for the Strip in driving visitation.
  • New premium mass space at Grand Hyatt
    • See great depth in the market which allows them to continue to focus on the high end Mass segment. They have allocated more rooms in the Grand Hyatt to the premium Mass segment and that is helping them on the Mass hold rate as well. There is also more potential to allocate more rooms to this segment
  • MSC: they remain very respectful of the government approval process. Their approval process is a little different. They will only make an announcement when they get permission to restart construction.  They still expect a 36 month construction timeline once they commence construction. 
  • MSC financing: still have no plans to raise equity
  • MSC theme: taking the movie concept to the next level. In due course when they restart construction they will announce their plans.
  • They do have the capacity to consider additional projects in or outside of Macau. However, outside of Macau, timing on any new projects is not imminent. They are focused on MSC.  
  • Regarding the Philippines - they are more interested in the larger and more stable jurisdictions.  Phillipines is definitely up and coming.  Their main focus is getting MSC off the ground. They are a "very focused group."
  • It looks like there will be at least 3 projects that are targeting openings in Cotai in mid-2015-2016.  How will they compete for tables and labor?
    • The government will likely want to stagger the openings of these projects to avoid all these projects opening at the same time 
    • They have a head start on the competition since they have already completed the piling work
    • When there is a need for additional labor, the government will allow more foreign workers to come in
    • There is a clear communication that from now until 2022, an additional 2,000 tables will open.  The table additions don't necessarily have to be equally spread across each year.
  • On the VIP segment, they are no longer competing along credit and commission lines but rather on quality. On the mass side, there are some changes in the market, but they do not see a significant impact since they are focused on the higher end mass segment. 
  • Bad debt / receiveables: the provision is flat to where it's been trending and they had a decrease in receivables sequentially. Not seeing any collections or credit issues in their business.
  • Why did VIP volumes decrease YoY at Altira and a slow down in CoD volume?
    • There has been additional supply in Cotai 
    • Also in April they have been renovating their space as well which impacted them at CoD
  • Why not add another tower at CoD?
    • They are looking at doing that and have made certain submissions to the government
    • They do want to make sure that MSC gets off the ground first, but don't need to wait for MSC to be complete to start on the tower
  • What permits do they need for MSC to proceed?
    • CoD had been re-gazetted 4 times; each time there were changes to the design. So, yes MSC will need to get re-gazetted since the land was originally granted 11 years ago. 
  • How will the 3 new junkets impact the mix of Mass/ VIP at CoD?
    • Added 23 new tables for these 3 operators - so 10% more VIP tables were allocated to VIP at CoD
    • Still have 229 tables on the Mass side
  • What exactly is driving the higher hold ratio in Mass at CoD?
    • Higher average bet
    • Better service level and room comp alignment 
    • Increased customers in that segment
    • More aggressive pricing in that segment at those tables
  • 30% margins are not out of reach for them in CoD, however, they aren't sure about the timeline of that happening. However, as they continue to shift more towards Mass, they should be able to achieve better margins.
  • How is the strata title conversation with the government? 
    • They have given up that conversation with the government given the controversy surrounding the issue of condos on Cotai.  3 years ago, they decided that the second tower at CoD would just be hotel rooms.
  • 23 VIP tables across 3 rooms - how much rolling volume should that bring in?
    • Can't disclose performance but the junkets that they brought in were some of the biggest operators in Macau.  The junkets are doing roughly 30% higher productivity than what they were doing at Altira
  • How much table and slot capacity and hotel rooms are MSC looking to add on?
    • The government will approve the additional tables when the cap is unfrozen in March 2013
    • 1,600 hotel rooms in MSC in PH1
  • New hotel tower at CoD?
    • They are finalizing the number of rooms/budget now so they aren't ready to guide on that yet

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • Net revenue of $1,027MM and Adjusted EBITDA of $243MM, which was slightly ahead of our estimate and 13% of consensus
  • Hold at CoD was high across VIP (3%) and Mass (28.8%) and VIP hold at Altira was also high at 3.1%. If we just adjust for high VIP hold, we estimate that EBITDA would have been $26MM lower. If we factor in high Mass hold we estimate that the total benefit was closer to $41MM. 
    • Altira's historical hold rate is 2.8% excluding 1Q. Using the historical hold rate, net revenue and EBITDA would have been $33MM and $15MM lower
    • CoD's historical hold rate is 2.86% excluding 1Q. Using the historical hold rate, net revenue and EBITDA would have been $27MM and $11MM lower
    • CoD's Mass hold in 2011 was 24.4% and the last 2 quarters has trending in the 25-26% range.  If we use 26% hold rate as normal, then net revenue and EBITDA would have been another $25MM and $15MM lower, respectively
  • "The 100% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2012 was attributable to an improved group-wide rolling chip win rate, as well as substantial growth in the mass market table games segment, particularly at City of Dreams which, combined with a strict company-wide cost control culture, drove operating leverage and profitability."
  • "We continue to optimize our current portfolio of assets, with a strong focus on improving table yields across City of Dreams and Altira Macau and leveraging our hotel and other non-gaming amenities to drive company-wide operating performance, while at the same time maintaining our strict control over our cost structure."
  • "Our strong performance in the mass market table games segment... resulted in us capturing meaningful market share in this increasingly important and profitable gaming segment. The importance of this gaming segment is clearly evident in the improvements in profitability and operating cash flow during the quarter, where we achieved year-over-year EBITDA growth of 100%, on revenue growth of 27%, highlighting significant operating leverage and improved margins."
  • "We believe Studio City will further enhance the experiences available for visitors to Macau with its expected range of unique entertainment offerings and interactive attractions. We continue to work with the Macau Government to bring this project to realization, moving forward with the remaining approvals required to restart construction on this exciting project."




MPEL Q1 REPORT CARD

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance.

 

 

OVERALL:  BETTER - Another big beat by MPEL driven by hold percentage and Mass volumes.  They beat our Street high EBITDA estimate.

  •  JUNKET EXPANSION
    • SAME:  still expects to add 3 junkets by end of Q2 at City of Dreams.  CoD junket table productivity is doing 30% better than those at Altira. 
  • COMMISSIONS/CREDIT
    • SAME:  Do not see much change in junket commissions and credit policies.  Provision for doubtful accounts has been stable.
  • MACAU STUDIO CITY
    • SAME:  remains optimistic that construction can restart by the end of Q2. Construction/design budget of $1.9BN is unchanged. 
  • FINANCING OF MSC
    • BETTER:  management has no plans to raise equity in either Hong Kong or US
  • LARGE MASS EBITDA CONTRIBUTION
    • BETTER:  75% of 1Q EBITDA came from the mass segment.  Market share and EBITDA better than expected
  • 1Q D&A GUIDANCE
    • SLIGHTLY WORSE:  1Q D&A was $95.1MM, slightly worse than company guidance of $90-95MM
  • 1Q CORPORATE EXPENSE GUIDANCE
    • SAME:  1Q corp expense came in at $20MM, at the high end of its $18-20MM guidance
  • 1Q NET INTEREST EXPENSE
    • BETTER:  1Q net interest expense came in at $23MM, below company guidance of $25-30MM

Wide Acceptance

This note was originally published at 8am on April 25, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“Wide acceptance of an idea is not proof of its validity.”

-Dan Brown (The Lost Symbol)

 

I continue to be fascinated by the groupthink that permeates our profession. You’d think that after all that we have been through in the last 5 years, that would have changed as the facts have. Nope.

 

I’m not talking about Apple. I don’t have the “edge” on that stock that the 58 sell-siders who follow it purport to have. Legitimate “edge” on a stock like that would probably raise one’s risk to wind up wearing an orange jump suit anyway.

 

I’m talking about the Wide Acceptances we’ve seen in 2012. From Europe is “fine now” (right before Spain started to crash, again) to “Dow 15,000” (cover of Barrons in February right as Global Growth started slowing, again). Fascinating. As a Risk Manager, you shouldn’t be tasked with chasing returns. You should be tasked with disproving every widely accepted thesis impacting your P&L.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

One of the most widely accepted one-liners from the media and sell-side this week has been some version of a Most Read (Bloomberg) headline this morning: “US Stocks Rise Amid Better Than Forecasted Earnings.”

 

That, of course, is nonsense. Generally speaking, stocks have been falling during this earnings season. Sure, some stocks have risen on better than expected results, but some have been getting tattooed on inline to worse results versus buy-side expectations.

 

The key to what I just wrote is “buy-side expectations.”

 

For as long as I’ve been on the buy-side of this game (since 2000), I can’t remember a time when the game wasn’t gaming the game of buy-side expectations.

 

The sell-side consensus that pundits refer to on “beating expectations” is just a backboard that buy-side pros play against. Consider AAPL expectations: you get multiple sell-side firms slap $1000 price targets on AAPL into March quarter end; the buy-side proceeds to sell stock into that for a -12% AAPL drawdown from April 9th-24th; and presto, the stock is up +9% on an “earnings beat.”

 

Obviously if AAPL wasn’t going to “beat” the sell-side’s actuall earnings expectations, the US stock market would be crashing this morning. So, we averted one of those. Nice.

 

Another way to think about a Wide Acceptance of an event or Storytelling line of consensus from the sell-side (the media has no choice but to use them as their research “source”) is to use that event as an opportunity to Fade Beta.

 

What does Fade Beta mean?

 

It means that if the market is up or down (beta), allegedly, on a widely accepted idea that has no proof of validity you either:

  1. Buy on red
  2. Sell on green 

I know. That’s some really complex stuff…

 

Here’s an example of how a Global Macro investor considers Fading Beta today. Start with simple questions: 

  1. Does Apple’s beat mean Growth is no longer Slowing, globally?
  2. Will Apple’s quarter inspire Ben Bernanke to move to iQe4 at his 215PM FOMC speech?
  3. What are Global Macro market prices telling us about questions 1 and 2 in real-time? 

The beauty of our process is that A) we built it ourselves B) it’s repeatable and C) there are specific answers to question #3: 

  1. Hong Kong, South Korea, and India’s stock markets all closed DOWN by the end of the session = #GrowthSlowing
  2. Hong Kong’s Export report for March came in at a startling -6.8% y/y = leading indicator for Global Growth
  3. Singapore’s Export report for March came in at a almost-as-startling -4.3% y/y = nasty
  4. Chinese stocks closed up +0.75% and we think they really work during a Deflating The Inflation (ie no iQe4 from Bernanke)
  5. UK GDP missed and moves back into the official “recession” zone of -0.2% for Q1 = #GrowthSlowing
  6. UK stocks (FTSE) have reversed their early morning Apple gains, barely up on the day
  7. Spanish stocks (IBEX) lead the short-term squeeze rally in Europe (after crashing, again) = low quality signal for bulls
  8. German Stocks (DAX) are up, but need to recover and sustain intermediate-term TREND support of 6688 to be bullish
  9. European bond yields don’t seem to care, at all, about iStuff
  10. Latin American debt, currency, and interest rate risk continues to accelerate in Mexico, Argentina, and Venezuela
  11. Oil prices are pushing higher = the #1 factor in our model for continued #GrowthSlowing, globally
  12. Copper is up small (+0.6%) and remains in a Bearish Formation (bearish across all 3 risk management durations)
  13. Gold is down, again, implying to me that the answer to Question #2 is a no today (Gold goes up when Bernanke devalues)
  14. Treasuries couldn’t care less about the US Equity Futures move; 10yr yields remain in a Bearish Formation at 1.98%
  15. US Treasury Yield Spread (10yr minus 2yr) remains 17bps below where it was when Growth Slowing wasn’t consensus 

Sure, I picked all of the factors that are bearish signals, on the margin, relative to widely accepted storytelling that suggests otherwise. That’s the point. That’s what I do. I don’t change what I do based on what other people are forced to do.

 

In other news, Donald Trump is going after Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh today for proposing to fire up a wind farm near the ole Don’s latest golf course project. Wide Acceptance from The Scottish People to Mr. Trump’s self-interested whining is not expected.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index and the SP500 are now $1627-1655, $118.51-121.60, $79.01-79.46, and 1361-1392, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough

Chief Executive Officer

 

 

 

Wide Acceptance - 1

 

 

Wide Acceptance - 2


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.


It's Your Problem

“The Dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”

-John Connolly, US Treasury Secretary (1971)

 

That’s the quote Jim Rickards uses to start Chapter 5 of Currency Wars. From an economic history perspective, it’s a critical quote to contextualize as President Richard Nixon was the first Republican President to go all-in Keynesian.

 

I’m not a Republican or Democrat. I am Canadian. So sometimes I just have to laugh when Republicans blame Obama for everything. It’s as if these partisan political pundits think we are dumb enough to believe that the likes of Nixon and Bush didn’t uphold the same monetary and fiscal policies to debauch the Dollar.

 

At least Nixon admitted it when he said plainly, “we’re all Keynesians now.” But are we? Inquiring minds in this country would like to know. Are we as numb to economic reality as the economically partisan media? Being Keynesian (Republican or Democrat) is partisan you know. And that probably had something to do with Republican veteran Lugar losing to the Tea Party in Indiana.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

You can blame Greece or Canada at this point, but the market doesn’t care to hear the excuses. The global economy is as interconnected as it has been for the last 5 years. The idea of “de-coupling” is only something the Sell-Side could make up.

 

If you didn’t know that the US Dollar is still the world’s reserve currency and that its daily, weekly, and monthly moves are driving what we call The Correlation Risk, now you know.

 

The US Dollar Index is having its 6th consecutive up day (touching $80 this morning), and one of our major Global Macro Theme calls for Q2 2012, Bernanke’s Bubbles (as in Commodities), are popping.

 

Since the Old Wall begged for Bernanke to do it, market expectations became addicted to it. Now it, as in “It’s Your Problem”, is on the tape.

 

Deflating The Inflation of easy money Commodity bubbles in Gold, Oil, etc. are riding the following immediate-term TRADE correlations to the US Dollar: 

  1. Gold -0.85
  2. Palladium -0.81
  3. Copper -0.67
  4. Oil -0.84
  5. Heating Oil -0.82
  6. Soybeans -0.79 

If you want to call these mathematical ironies, you can. As a matter of fact, you can call anything in this profession whatever you want to call it until you have to report your performance results back to your clients. If you are just a pundit, not held accountable to the TimeStamps of what you say and when, I can’t help you from yourself. Twitter’s gotcha!

 

In our 50 slide Q2 Global Macro Themes Deck (April 2012) we walked through the Top 10 Bernanke Bubbles (email if you’d like to review it with refreshed risk management levels).

 

The aforementioned immediate-term TRADE correlations anchor on 6 commodities. If you want to look at The Correlation Risk from a bigger picture perspective, here’s how the USD Index is trending versus some fairly major stuff: 

  1. CRB All-Commodities Index (19 Commodities) = -0.93
  2. S&P 500 = -0.85
  3. Euro Stoxx 600 = -0.84 

It’s Your Problem” or its your opportunity now. It’s a major performance problem if you are long anything US, European, or Japanese Equities (all Keynesian Policy Bubbles) or commodities. It has been since the middle of March.

 

Now plenty people who are long Gold (I have a zip lock bag of the stuff in my desk, fyi) will quickly say that’s precisely why they are long Gold – because it’s “protection against all the money printing and Keynesian central planners” of the world.

 

Fair e-nuff.

 

But what if the world is pricing in an end to the Nixonian madness? They did in the early 1980’s. What if we are on the verge of actually getting off the iQe drugs? Gold being up for 12 consecutive years naturally implies some mean reversion risk to the idea that Americans are dumb enough to vote for Dollar Debauchery for much longer.

 

In addition to their Keynesian economic policy making teams, Bush and Obama have one thing in common – Ben Bernanke. This is not unlike what Nixon and Carter had in common – Arthur Burns (who was also tasked, politically, with devaluing the Dollar and monetizing US Treasury debt).

 

Got Causality? 

  1. Dollar Debauchery in both the 1970’s and 2000’s perpetuated commodity price inflation
  2. Dollar Debauchery in both the 1970s and 2000’s perpetuated fear-mongering by policy makers to back their policies
  3. Dollar Debauchery in both the 1970s and 2000’s perpetuated a lack of confidence/trust and employment growth 

Both GDP Growth and US Employment Growth were as nasty as they have ever been (by decade) in both the Nixon/Carter and Bush/Obama periods of raging Keynesian Economic policy influence.

 

So, here’s a little reminder from little old me in New Haven, CT this morning to all of the Keynesians, from Larry Summers to Ben Bernanke, and all of their offspring – It’s Your Problem now. If that sounds like I am picking a fight, that’s old news. I did that in our April Themes presentation too. We are officially Fighting The Fed (and winning).

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, Euro (EUR/USD), and the SP500 are now $1, $110.92-113.87, $79.42-79.88, $1.29-1.31, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

It's Your Problem - Chart of the Day

 

It's Your Problem - Virtual Portfolio



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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