Our May forecast is HK$27-29 billion, +14-23% YoY growth
No big surprise out of Macau for the first week of May. On the surface, HK$975m in average daily table revenue (ADTR) would appear strong when compared to April’s HK$775m. However, Sands Cotai Central was not open for a third of April and Golden Week was the first week of May. Our forecast for May GGR (including slots) is HK$27-29 billion which would represent YoY growth of 14-23%. May could end up being the slowest growth month of the year thus far.
Not surprisingly, hold has impacted the first week. We are hearing that MGM and especially WYNN held low in the first week. Sands China market share still looks weak to us after a hold impacted April. While share is up to 19.0% from the 3 month trend of 17.3%, SCC did add over 4% to Macau table supply. Galaxy continues to defy expectations with another week of strong share while MPEL looks like they are holding their own. One potential trend we will be watching is the migration of play from the peninsula to Cotai. Even though that appears to be happening since the opening of SCC, it is too early to make that definitive claim.