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PNK 1Q 2012 CONF CALL NOTES

Very good quarter from PNK but weather and calendar certainly helped. Sustainability is the question.

 

 

 

"We are very pleased to report strong first quarter financial results that demonstrate the positive operating momentum we built in 2011 has carried into 2012.  The Company continues to make significant progress improving its operations and executing on its strategic objectives." - Anthony Sanfilippo, president and chief executive officer of Pinnacle Entertainment

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Expect to open Baton Rouge in Late August
  • Mychoice is having a meaningful impact - recognizing and rewarding their best guests and increasing customer loyalty. 
    • Formed a partnership with Atlantis Bahamas - available for their top 3 tiers of guests
    • Owners club guests were also given 3 Mercedes options
    • Options for their top customers to go to Wynn LV
    • # of guests in top tier (Owner's Club) grew 40%
    • 2nd and 3rd tier members also grew double digits
    • New member enrollment was up 10% in the Q in MyChoice
  • Revenue per admission continues to grow across their portfolio
  • Feel like there is material margin upside in 2012
  • Net leverage: 4.5x
  • Expect some decisions about slots at Ohio tracks in 2Q
  • River City garage construction so far had minimal disruption on the property
  • Total investment at Retama Park will be $23MM, $10MM of which was already paid.  The property lost $1.5MM in 2011, but they believe that they can operate the facility more profitably.

Q&A

  • Missouri Credit passage:  not sure about the likelihood of passage.  If it does, it will greatly increase their ability to cross market their properties.  Allows them an additional way to take care of their guests.  Haven't modeled the benefit of it passing. 
  • Construction disruption at River City: 
    • The Winter was mild and that helped.  As the temperature climbs over the summer they may see an impact of a potentially hot walk.  Do expect some impact during the hot summer months or days when there is rain/slow/bad weather.
    • To mitigate disruption, they will not commence hotel construction until the garage is complete
  • Is it possible to make Retama Park break even? 
    • Unsure - they are confident in minimizing the loss but have not crunched the numbers yet to see exactly how much improvement they can implement
  • L'Auberge strength: 
    • The Houston market continues to be under-penetrated
    • Top-line is mostly driven by marketing improvements - MyChoice is helping
  • St Louis: It's possible for them to get to a 30% margin but that isn't their focus.  Rather they are focused on profitable revenue growth.
  • New Orleans:  Focusing on improving operations through a variety of programs. 
  • Have put together a marketing plan that will launch in the summer time for their Baton Rouge Casino
  • There was nothing unusual in their corporate expense line.  If anything there may be rooms for improvement.
  • Loss from equity method investment: Vietnam - will likely incur operating losses until it opens.  Will likely ramp up (losswise) until the property opens in 2013.  Will likely turn positive by the end of 2013.
  • Taxes would have been $1.8MM different if not for the 1x charges
  • Baton Rouge - there will be a ramp up period in the first couple of quarters.  Given the shared services effort and the fact that they have already hired a good team, they should ramp better than some other new openings.
  • They are hopeful that the roadways continue to improve near the development in Vietman. Think that that is a very vibrant part of the world. 
  • River Downs - Scotia Downs is scheduled to open in early June; that will be a test in and of itself
    • Possible that they can start Ph1 construction as early as this summer.  Haven't finalized the budget on PH1 yet.  High probability that they will be able to open by end of 2013. 
    • PNK's participation in future cash raises in Vietnam depends on the terms and other investment opportunities for PNK at that time
  • If gaming comes to Texas they want to be a part of it. Don't know when and if that happens
  • They are beginning to remarket their AC property.  They are optimistic that there will be some good alternatives for that asset. 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • "First quarter performance was driven principally by Adjusted EBITDA growth at... St. Louis, L'Auberge Lake Charles, and Belterra operating segments, as well as a decline in corporate overhead expenses." 
  • "The St. Louis segment continued its strong performance during the first quarter, with further ramp up of gaming revenues at River City and expense discipline across both properties."
  • "Investments made in the casino floor of L'Auberge Lake Charles began to bear fruit in the first quarter with the property achieving record overall gaming revenue, slot win, table drop, poker rake and win per admission"
  • "Boomtown New Orleans continues to experience difficult comparisons due to last year's elevated local economic activity created by the Deep Horizon oil spill cleanup and recovery efforts.  We have made select facility improvements to increase the property's competitiveness, and continue to refine the property's marketing programs to drive profitable revenue.  While disappointed with the performance over the past two quarters, we are optimistic these initiatives will improve the performance of Boomtown New Orleans going forward"
  • "Boomtown Bossier City continues to face a very competitive operating environment, but cost discipline has permitted the property to drive Adjusted EBITDA growth despite revenue challenges."
  • "The reduction in corporate overhead expense was driven principally by a decrease in severance expense during the 2012 first quarter.  Efforts to eliminate non-value added expenses at the Company's Las Vegas headquarters, as well as a ramp up of cost savings related to the Company's shared service center supporting our properties in the Midwest and Louisiana, also contributed to the decline."
  • "We broke ground on the construction of a 1,600 space parking structure at River City in late-March.  We continue to anticipate completion of this element of the expansion by the end of 2012.  The second phase of this expansion, a 200-room hotel and multi-purpose event center is expected to commence by the end of 2012 and be completed in late-2013."
  • "Construction in Baton Rouge is progressing rapidly, with the project remaining on track to open by Labor Day 2012 and within its $368.0 million budget.  At River Downs in Cincinnati, Ohio, we have made significant progress in concept and design work for the project.  Finally, Asian Coast Development's project inVietnam continues to make meaningful progress.  We look forward to MGM Grand Ho Tram's opening by the end of the first quarter of 2013."
  • "On April 26, 2012, the Company announced the potential acquisition of a 75.5% equity stake in the owner of Retama Park Racetrack's racing license for total consideration of $22.8 million, comprising a purchase of debt securities and other interests related to Retama Park for $7.8 million and $15.0 million in cash consideration which will be used primarily to refinance Retama Development Corporation's current indebtedness and to provide working capital.  The initial purchase of debt securities and other interests related to Retama Park closed in April.  The subsequent transactions are subject to the receipt of all applicable regulatory approvals, with closing expected by the end of 2012."
  • "On track to close the previously announced sale of its Boomtown Reno casino-resort operations by mid-2012.  The casino-resort buyers also have a one year option to purchase 100% of the Company's membership interest in the current gaming licensee, PNK (Reno), LLC, and additional land adjacent to Boomtown Reno."
  • "In the first quarter of 2012, the use of medical pooling had a $1.0 million favorable impact on Adjusted EBITDA for Belterra and a $0.9 million negative impact on Adjusted EBITDA for St. Louis.  The impact was negligible to the Company's other operating segments."
  • "Capital expenditures totaled approximately $66.0 million during the first quarter of 2012, including $54.5 million related to construction of L'Auberge Baton Rouge.  Through March 31, 2012, the Company has incurred approximately $220.5 million of the $368.0 million budget for L'Auberge Baton Rouge, excluding land cost and capitalized interest, and $2.9 million of the $82.0 million River City expansion project."
  • "Capitalized interest in the 2012 first quarter was $5.4 million" 

WMS: PRICECHOPPERS

ASPs move the opposite way of IGT/BYI.  Too bad because there were some bright spots in the Q. 

 

 

As we summed up in our teaser from our conference call notes and Report Card, low ASPs and weak international sales spoiled what could have been a good quarter from WMS.  While international sales can be volatile, the drop in ASPs is disconcerting.  We know Konami was very aggressive in pricing during the quarter but both IGT and BYI reported almost 10% ASP increases.  Clearly, WMS is feeling the competitive heat more so than the competitors.

 

In any event, WMS clearly missed the mark this quarter vis-a-vis investor expectations on both revenues and EPS by a considerable margin.  If not for the low tax rate in the quarter, WMS would have reported $0.38 vs. consensus of $0.44.  Coupled with the recent run-up in the stock, investors are probably taking little solace that there were actually several bright spots in the quarter. 

 

Since WMS led with their left foot this quarter, we’ll start with what went wrong.

 

THE BAD

  • ASPs:  It’s true that large shipments to new openings typically get a decent discount but IGT and BYI reported strong ASPs.  It’s also true that it’s a very competitive market and therein lies the worry for WMS.  There was no signal from the company since December that pricing could be an issue.  The issue may be that WMS started from a higher point than its competitors and since their competitors have stepped up their product quality, WMS has had to simply get more competitive on price.
  • On the VLT front, WMS was the only supplier to sell rather than lease units to Maryland Live.  Since their contract fell under Spielo, the purchase price was not disclosed.  However, our understanding behind WMS’s rationale to sell vs. lease the units at $25-28/day to the facility was based on a lucrative sales price.  So we’re left scratching our heads here a bit.
  • International units:  While international units are notoriously difficult to predict since they are mostly replacements, WMS’s low number of shipments definitely surprised us.  Based on our conversations with management, we expected a 2,000/Q run rate.  Instead, it looks like WMS’s units are slipping below FY2007 levels.  No doubt various jurisdictions are reviewing their regulatory standards but it does seem a bit odd to us that this is not impacting any of the suppliers.

A TREND

  • Declining unit revenues in gaming operations:  Both IGT and WMS attribute declining win per day to mix shift which makes sense from the anecdotal evidence.  WMS specifically mentioned that they have an increasing number of games out on a fixed fee or daily lease.  Just a few years ago, BYI was the only supplier to consider this pricing model outside of markets where true participation was not possible.  We also know that casinos have been targeting WAP games to increase margins.

THE GOOD

  • North American shipments:  Shipments (not recognized units) to North America came in 500 units above our estimate.  While we are still waiting to speak to several suppliers, we believe that WMS could be in second place for market share this quarter.  Lower ASPs helped.
  • Healthy margins:  Despite the disappointing ASP’s, margins were strong.  Of course, the large number of conversion kits sold in the quarter didn’t hurt.
  • Install base no longer stalled?  After 6 quarters of declines in their install base, dare we say that WMS has turned a corner?  It certainly appears so.  Unfortunately, all the new great content they have coming out still faces competition and that’s the new market norm. 

Damned Lies

This note was originally published at 8am on April 17, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“I am not well qualified to criticize the theory of rational expectations and the efficient market hypothesis because as a market participant I considered them so unrealistic that I never bothered to study them.”

-George Soros

 

Just as Keith has his pile of reading, I also have mine.  The quote above from George Soros was in a speech he gave to the Institute for New Economic Thinking Annual Plenary Conference.  The quote itself was buried somewhat deep in Soros’ comments, but it jumped off the page at me.  To me it is somewhat akin, and I hate to use another hockey analogy, to Wayne Gretzky being told he couldn’t score 90+ goals in a NHL season (which is more than one goal per game) after he did it.

 

Soros, of course, is in a similar situation in the realm of investing.   He has absolutely crushed it in terms of outperforming the market over long periods of time.  His performance has been so staggering, in fact, that his net worth today is estimated north of $22 billion.  Now I haven’t always admired Soros’ political positions, but it is very difficult not to admire his investment track record. 

 

More importantly, I’ve always admired his desire and interest in attempting to explain his investment process.  Much of what Soros has written about his investment process revolves around reflexivity.  He loosely based this way of interpreting the markets on a theory by philosopher Karl Popper that suggests that the individual’s interpretation of reality never quite correspond with reality itself.  

 

According to Soros, in financial markets this is taken one step further in that individuals with a flawed sense of reality actually take action based on this flawed interpretation of the future.  In turn, these collective actions often influence future events, or more likely, as Soros said, create a “divergence between the participants’ view of reality and the actual state of affairs and a divergence between the participants’ expectations and the actual outcome.”

 

From my seat, the pin action in Europe over the past 18-months highlights Soros’ idea that collectively market participants really have no idea what the ultimate outcome in Europe will be to resolve the intrinsic issues associate with the Maastricht Treaty. Specifically, I’m referring to the issue that a European monetary union cannot exist sustainably without a strong political union or fiscal solidarity.

 

This morning the first of two key Spanish debt auctions occurred for the week.  The reflexive response from the equity markets is that the auction was a success, as European equities are up across the board with beleaguered French banks leading the way.  According to reports we are receiving from some of our contacts on the ground in Europe, the Spaniards sold 3.2 billion euros of 12 – 18 month bills versus a maximum target of 3.0 billion euros at a total bid-to-cover of 3.19.  On the negative side, the bills sold yielded 2.6% on the 12-year versus 1.4% prior and 3.1% on the 18-year versus 1.7% prior.  So, yes the auction was “successful”, albeit at usury type rates.

 

It’s quite possible that the Spanish debt auction this Thursday is just as “successful”.  Although as always, I would recommend watching not necessarily what the government officials say, but what they actually do.  In that vein, this week European officials are headed to Washington, DC with hat in hand to ask for more money from the International Monetary Fund.  The IMF meetings occur from April 20 – 22nd.  Interestingly, the Europeans may meet at least one surprising fiscal hawk in the way of U.S. Treasury Secretary who has already ruled out additional contributions to the IMF based on the belief that the IMF already has “substantial financial resources.”

 

Meanwhile as the loose monetary policies in Europe appear likely to be extended in perpetuity, inflation readings came in stickier, even if marginally, across the board this morning.  Eurozone March CPI came in at +1.3% month-over-month and +2.7% on year-over-year basis, both ahead of expectations.  The acceleration in U.K. inflation was even more noteworthy coming in at +3.5% versus estimates of +3.4%.

 

The scary thing with inflation is that, just like George Soros’ returns, it also compounds.  So, at this rate of inflation, in 10 years someone in the U.K. who makes $50,000 now will have to make $70,000 to have the same purchasing power.  Thus we have the hidden tax of inflation. 

 

Switching gears briefly, I wanted to touch on U.S. politics.  Yesterday the Senate blocked the so-called Buffett Tax, which would have implemented a mandatory tax of 30% on anyone earning over $1 million in income.  The legislation was blocked basically on party lines.  In terms of true tax reform, the Buffett tax is basically meaningless and is clearly not much more than a political stunt, although perhaps an adroit one by the Obama camp as according to a recent Gallup poll 6 in 10 eligible voters supported passage of the bill. 

 

The Democrats are only going to continue to focus on this class warfare type issue heading into the Presidential elections this fall.  In fact, yesterday I received a blast email from Stephanie Cutter, the Deputy Campaign Manager for Obama which invited me to compare my tax rate to Romney’s.  Ultimately, this “war on the rich” is and will continue to backfire on Obama in one key way: political donations.  So far, corporate executives across almost every industry have been giving less money to Obama and the Democrats this election cycle.  (We will have a note on this up today.)

 

For those looking for some interesting and enlightening reading this morning, the IMF releases the world economic outlook and fiscal monitor at 9am and ECB President Draghi is delivering an intro speech at the 6thECB Statistics conference.   Thinking about an annual ECB statistics conference reminds of Mark Twain’s famous quote (who he purportedly borrowed from former U.K. Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli):

 

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

 

Indeed.

 

The immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, Japanese Yen (vs USD), Euro/USD, and the SP500 are now $1617-1662, $117.67-121.61, $79.27-79.67, $80.03-82.34, $1.30-1.32, and 1349-1383, respectively.

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Damned Lies - Chart of the Day

 

Damned Lies - Virtual Portfolio


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 1, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.49% downside to 1391 and 0.86% upside to 1410. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1A

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/30 NYSE -665
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1005
  • VOLUME: on 4/30 NYSE 851.91
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 8.14%
  • VIX:  as of 4/30 was at 17.15
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 5.09%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -26.71%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/30 closed at 1.92
    • Down from the day prior at 2.21 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


APRIL – you can only put lipstick on a pig for so long, then lower-highs start to concern the bulls; particularly as the Macro data confirms that price momentum. Perma-Bulls have had to learn this lesson the hard way in 3 of the last 4yrs (ie sell in Q1, buyem back in Q3 a lot lower) and I don’t think Pavlov’s bells are going to keep them in it on “valuation” this time either.

 

10YR TREASURIES – bond yields continue to tell you all you need to know about Growth Slowing in the USA. At 1.92% this morning, yields are testing 6 week lows and have gone straight down since mid-March when the US growth slowdown picked up on the downside. Yesterday’s PMI print was -10% m/m and Jobless Claims are up +15% m/m – it matters. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 37
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.91
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.66
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks to tribal leaders in Washington
  • 10am: Construction Spending, Mar., est. 0.5% (prior -1.1%)
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Apr., est. 53.0 (prior 53.4)
  • 10am: ISM Prices Paid, Apr., est. 59.0 (prior 61.0)
  • 11am: Fed’s Williams speaks on economy in Beverly Hills, CA
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 4-wk, $26b 52-wk bills
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Evans & Lockhart speak on monetary policy in Beverly Hills
  • 3pm: Fed’s Plosser gives economic outlook in San Diego
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

 GOVERNMENT:

    • Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan to provide panel with details on agents’ involvement with prostitutes in Colombia
    • U.S. travel industry kicks off $12.3m marketing campaign, with ads rolling out in U.K., Canada, Japan
    • SEC, CFTC holds closed meetings on enforcement matters
    • House, Senate, Supreme Court not in session 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Fed said to have criticized how some of the 19 largest U.S. banks calculated potential losses, planned dividends in this year’s stress tests
  • Group that includes Wolverine World Wide, Golden Gate Capital said to be near agreement, may announce deal as soon as today to buy Collective Brands for $21-$22 per share
  • Mitsubishi, Mitsui agreed to buy 14.7% stake in Woodside Petroleum’s proposed Brose LNG project in Australia for $2b
  • ISM’s factory index probably eased to 53 last month from 53.4 in March, economists’ est. ahead of today’s report
  • Chesapeake Energy says IRS reviewing executive-incentive program that allowed CEO Aubrey McClendon to buy stakes in thousands of co.’s oil and natgas wells, in filing yesterday
  • April U.S. auto sales rate may be 14.3m, up from 13.2m year- ago, decelerating from 1Q rate 14.6m
  • Bank of America may cut 2,000 banking jobs on top of plan announced last year to eliminate 30k jobs in 3 years: WSJ
  • House Financial Services Cmte Chairman Spencer Bachus said he’s been cleared by congressional ethics office of allegations he improperly traded securities during 2008 financial crisis
  • NYC’s pension funds will vote against the five Wal-Mart directors standing for re-election at next month’s shareholder meeting: NYT
  • Isuzu Motors said it’s considering forming business alliances with companies including General Motors; Nikkei reported April 29 GM may buy 10% stake in Isuzu
  • American Hospital Association says Obama administration’s $14.6b program to encourage doctors to adopt electronic medial records too ambitious, goals may not be met, in letter to HHS
  • May Day holiday, some overseas markets closed, Occupy Wall Street stages protests
  • No U.S. IPOs expected to price: Bloomberg data 

EARNINGS:

    • Corn Products International (CPO) 5:30am, $1.22
    • Becton Dickinson and Co (BDX) 6am, $1.38
    • Huntsman (HUN) 6am, $0.39
    • Emerson Electric Co (EMR) 6:30am, $0.80
    • Harris (HRS) 6:30am, $1.34
    • NiSource (NI) 6:30am, $0.71
    • Foster Wheeler (FWLT) 6:45am, $0.39
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 7am, $0.60
    • Avon Products (AVP) 7am, $0.28
    • Biogen Idec (BIIB) 7am, $1.48
    • Cobalt International Energy (CIE) 7am, $(0.11)
    • Marsh & McLennan Cos (MMC) 7am, $0.61
    • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 7am, $1.31
    • Pfizer (PFE) 7am, $0.56
    • Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) 7am, $0.02
    • Techne (TECH) 7am, $0.85
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7am, $0.41
    • TRW Automotive Holdings (TRW) 7am, $1.61
    • Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7am, $0.73
    • DENTSPLY International (XRAY) 7am, $0.52
    • Legg Mason (LM) 7am, $0.47
    • Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 7:30am, $0.91
    • Cummins (CMI) 7:30am, $2.22
    • Hospira (HSP) 7:30am, $0.48
    • Arch Coal (ACI) 7:45am, $0.19
    • HCP (HCP) 7:45am, $0.66
    • Valero Energy (VLO) 7:45am, $0.28
    • AGCO (AGCO) 8am, $0.86
    • Arrow Electronics (ARW) 8am, $1.09
    • Cameco (CCO CN) 8am, C$0.25
    • Prologis (PLD) 8am, $0.40
    • Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) 8:05am, $(0.24)
    • Ecolab (ECL) 8:25am, $0.48
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.80
    • CBOE Holdings (CBOE) 4pm, $0.36
    • Motorola Mobility Holdings (MMI) 4pm, $0.01
    • Unum Group (UNM) 4pm, $0.76
    • WebMD Health (WBMD) 4pm, $(0.18)
    • CBS (CBS) 4:01pm, $0.44
    • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) 4:01pm, $0.28
    • DaVita (DVA) 4:01pm, $1.45
    • Fiserv (FISV) 4:01pm, $1.14
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:01pm, $0.34
    • Broadcom (BRCM) 4:05pm, $0.55
    • ONEOK (OKE) 4:05pm, $1.31
    • OpenTable (OPEN) 4:05pm, $0.34
    • Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:07pm, $0.13
    • Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) 4:11pm, $0.26
    • TECO Energy (TE) 4:15pm, $0.24
    • Yamana Gold (YRI CN) 4:28pm, $0.24
    • Boston Properties (BXP) Post-Mkt, $1.13
    • General Growth Properties (GGP) Post-Mkt, $0.21
    • Intact Financial (IFC CN) Post-Mkt, C$1.26 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Fat Pigs Means Pork Bust as Record Herd Ends Rally: Commodities
  • Jeremy Charles Will Retire as HSBC’s Head of Precious Metals
  • Corn Declines as U.S. Planting Progress May Boost Global Supply
  • Oil Near Two-Day Low After China PMI Expands Less Than Forecast
  • Sugar Falls as Delivery Seen Bigger Than Forecast; Coffee Drops
  • Copper Swings Between Gains, Drops Amid Doubt About China Easing
  • Gold Is Seen Falling on Concern Physical Purchases Are Slowing
  • U.S. Lags in Cattle ID Seen as More Effective Than Mad Cow Tests
  • Aluminum Set to Strengthen in Next 10 Days: Technical Analysis
  • Rubber Gains for Fourth Day as China’s Manufacturing Expands
  • Wind’s $168 Billion North Sea Boom Lures Oil Industry: Energy
  • Utility Puts Hit Record in Bet Against Defensive Rally: Options
  • Batista Considers Industrial Partner to Tap $1.5 Trillion Assets
  • Pork Surplus May End Four-Year Price Rally
  • Kansas Draws Record 100 to Measure Wheat in World’s Top Exporter
  • Oil Supplies Surge to 21-Year High in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Record Fuel Output Returning Exmar’s Tankers to Profit: Freight 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 


ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – while we were lugging around our 100 slide deck presentation on Japan in March, the most common question was “what’s the catalyst to make Japanese stocks go down?” A: economic gravity. Just when consensus thought Japan couldn’t go down it’s down for 15 of the last 19 trading days (down hard, -1.8% overnight).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION

Very Bullish Senior Loan Officer Survey in All but One Category

The Fed released its second quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey yesterday afternoon. The survey covers lending standards and loan demand and was conducted between March 27th and April 10th. 

 

Overall, the survey paints a very positive picture, though admittedly is somewhat backward looking given the survey period was 3-5 weeks ago. Across C&I and CRE loans, lending standards eased while loan demand improved. On the consumer side, residential mortgage demand rose significantly. That said, lending standards tightened modestly for both prime and nontraditional borrowers. Consumer non-mortgage loans saw lending standards ease again this quarter and demand strengthened considerably. Most notably, banks willingness to make auto loans increased substantially. 

 

We saw relatively strong loan growth trends from a majority of the regional banks in 1Q12. This survey suggests that those trends should persist through 2Q12, barring any sharp loss of confidence intra-quarter. 

 

C&I Loan Demand Rises Sharply

Demand for C&I loans continued to rise in the 2Q survey, spreads tightened, and standards continued to ease. The Loan growth in C&I remains the strongest out of any loan category, according to the Fed's H.8 data.

 

Notably, a net 60% of banks reported not tightening spreads for large and mid-size firms, while a net 31% of banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans among large and mid-size borrowers. 

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - C I demand 1  2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - C I demand 2  2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - C I standards2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - C I spreads2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - C I loans

 

 

CRE Loan Demand Rises Further While Standards Continue to Ease

Commercial real estate loan demand improved in the quarter with a net 39.7% of banks reporting stronger demand for CRE loans. Meanwhile, a net 13.8% of banks reported easing CRE loan standards 2Q12 - the highest percentage recorded since the downturn began. In spite of the turn in this data, H8 data shows that CRE loans, overall, remain in decline.

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - CRE standards2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - CRE demand2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - CRE loans

 

Residential Real Estate - A Mixed Picture

Residential mortgage loan standards were tighter in 2Q for both prime and nontraditional borrowers. A net 1.9% of banks reported tightening standards on prime borrowers, while a net 11.5% of banks reported further tightening on nontraditional borrowers. 

 

The demand side, however, saw the sharpest uptick in demand since the housing downturn began. Demand was reported as stronger for prime residential loans by a net 30.2% of banks, while a net 23.1% of banks reported stronger nontraditional loan demand. 

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - Resi Demand2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - Resi Standards2

 

Consumer Loans - Cards, Cars & Installment

Banks reported a net easing of standards for credit cards, auto loans and installment credit. This survey was roughly in-line with that of recent surveys. On the demand front, demand picked up sharply. Demand for credit card loans rose to a net 17.5% of banks from 8.1% in the prior quarter. Demand for auto loans rose to a net 35.3% from 14.3% in the prior quarter and installment loan demand picked up to a net 16.4% from negative 1.9%. These are very positive readings on the demand front. Finally, This quarter also saw a net 23.6% of banks report an increased willingness to make consumer loans. This is roughly consistent with the readings from the last several quarters.

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - Consumer standards2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - Consumer Demand2

 

2Q12 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEY: BROAD-BASED IMPROVEMENT WITH ONLY ONE EXCEPTION - Consumer Loans

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

Robert Belsky

 

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