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LONGS: JACK, SBUX

SHORTS:

 

MACRO NOTES

Commentary from CEO Keith McCullough

Most Read (Bloomberg) story this morning is “Bundesbank’s Weidmann Says What No Politician Wants To Hear” –

evidently we have company on the Strong Currency front – big issue for the US General Election:

  1. JAPAN – sadly, the Japanese have entered the final stage of the Currency War where both currency and equity markets start going down at the same time (think Europe from April 2011 to the 2011 crash bottom). The Yen’s decline was 1st, and now the Nikkei has been down for 13 of the last 15 trading days – BOJ bureaucrats begging for bond buying bailouts.
  2. GERMANY – the DAX snapped my intermediate-term TREND line of 6688 support yesterday, so I’m watching that market very closely on this morning’s no-volume bounce to 6568 so far. German growth data started to slow in Feb/Mar and that matters. So does the German voice of “Strong Euro” overriding Bernanke’s politicized one on the US Dollar.
  3. OIL – they will not come down like other commodities have until Bernanke says something explicit about no Qe4; our model’s show you’d need to see a sustained breakdown on Brent and WTIC below $96/barrel to stabilize Consumption Growth. We’re nowhere near seeing that yet, but Energy stocks seem to be sniffing that out.

Immediate-term SP500 range = 1.

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HBM: CMG, WEN, EAT, CAKE, BWLD - subsector

 

QUICK SERVICE

CMG: Chipotle was downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

WEN: Wendy’s has launched new “signature” sides for $2.49.  The Mac & Cheese, Baked Sweet Potatoes, and Chili Cheese Fries were reviewed on grubgrade.

CASUAL DINING

EAT: Brinker’s strong quarter yesterday led to several names trading strongly intraday.  Our thought is that this was primarily a short covering-fueled move; Brinker and Cheesecake Factory led the group yesterday and are two of the most heavily shorted names in casual dining. Buffalo Wild Wings did not move higher on the news.

EAT: Brinker was raised to Positive versus Negative at Susquehanna.

EAT: Brinker was raised to Neutral at Stern Agee

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

EAT: Brinker was the clear standout yesterday, gaining 10.7% on accelerating volume. 

CAKE: Cheesecake Factory gained 2% on accelerating volume.

BJRI: BJ’s Restaurants continues to trade poorly, declining just over a point on strong volume.

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings reports after the market close today.

THE HBM: CMG, WEN, EAT, CAKE, BWLD - stocks

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst