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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 24, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.51% downside to 1360 and 0.74% upside to 1377. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/23 NYSE -1440
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 947
  • VOLUME: on 4/23 NYSE 784.67
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -18.77%
  • VIX:  as of 4/23 was at 18.97
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 8.77%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -18.93%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/23 closed at 1.07
    • Down from the day prior at 1.31 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.95
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.93
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.69
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.68 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • FOMC Meeting Begins
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 9:00am: S&P/CS-20 (M/m) SA, Feb., est. 0.2% (prior -0.04%)
  • 10:00am: Consumer Confidence, Apr., est. 69.7 (prior 70.2)
  • 10:00am: Richmond Fed, Apr., est. 7 (prior 7)
  • 10:00am: House Price Index (M/m), Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.0%)
  • 10:00am: New Home Sales, Mar., est. 318k (prior 313k)
  • 10:00am: New Home Sales (M/m), Mar., est. 1.6% (prior -1.6%)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 4-week bills
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-yr notes 

GOVERNMENT:

  • Republican presidential primaries in Conn., Del., N.Y., Penn., R.I. Mitt Romney, who already has more than half the 1,144 delegates needed to secure his party’s nomination, is likely to win most of 231 delegates at stake
  • President Obama discusses interest rates on student loans in address at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1:05pm
  • Obama speaks to students at University of Colorado, 8:30pm
  • Interior Secretary Ken Salazar delivers speech on gas prices, oil drilling and domestic energy development at NPC, 1pm
  • House, Senate in session:
    • Senate Banking Committee hears from Louis Freeh, trustee for MF Global, and CFTC member Jill Sommers on the collapse of MF Global, 10am
    • Senate Commerce Committee holds hearing on the future of television, video and online content, 10am     

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Apple, which has dropped 9 of the past 10 days and shaved 10% off market value, reports after market
  • Sales of new homes probably increased 1.6% in March, first rise in three months, economists est.
  • Wal-Mart Stores said to face DOJ criminal investigation into allegations of bribery in its Mexican subsidiary
  • Motorola Mobility won ITC judge ruling in its attempt to block imports of Microsoft’s Xbox gaming system; second judge delayed ruling on separate Apple case until today
  • FOMC begins first day of two-day meeting
  • Nestle said to consider selling as much as $1.8b of infant- nutrition assets it is buying from Pfizer on antitrust concerns
  • Collective Brands said to weigh final offers to sell itself to E-Land Group or Wolverine World Wide
  • Royal Dutch Shell agreed to buy Cove Energy for $1.8b
  • Global earnings: Novartis 1Q EPS trailed est.; ARM Holdings sees FY sales in line with est.
  • Speculation on Romney running mate focuses on Florida Senator Marco Rubio 

EARNINGS:

    • Air Products & Chemicals (APD) 6 a.m., $1.33
    • Baker Hughes (BHI) 6 a.m., $0.80
    • Ashland (ASH) 6 a.m., $1.39
    • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) 6:30 a.m., $0.39
    • CIT Group (CIT) 6:30 a.m., $(1.58)
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 6:46 a.m., $0.75
    • United Technologies (UTX) 6:59 a.m., $1.20
    • Pentair (PNR) 7 a.m., $0.56
    • Waters (WAT) 7 a.m., $1.09
    • Coach (COH) 7 a.m., $0.75
    • Reynolds American (RAI) 7 a.m., $0.65
    • Hershey Co/The (HSY) 7 a.m., $0.81
    • Regions Financial (RF) 7 a.m., $0.08
    • Western Union (WU) 7 a.m., $0.40
    • Lexmark International (LXK) 7 a.m., $1.04
    • Celestica (CLS CN) 7 a.m., $0.22
    • Celanese (CE) 7 a.m., $0.77
    • Synovus Financial (SNV) 7 a.m., $0.01
    • RadioShack (RSH) 7 a.m., $0.04
    • McGraw-Hill Cos /The (MHP) 7:10 a.m., $0.48
    • 3M Co (MMM) 7:30 a.m., $1.49
    • AT&T (T) 7:30 a.m., $0.57
    • T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) 7:30 a.m., $0.77
    • Parker Hannifin (PH) 7:30 a.m., $1.71
    • Ryder System (R) 7:55 a.m., $0.58
    • Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 8 a.m., $0.95
    • Rayonier (RYN) 8 a.m., $0.37
    • Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8 a.m., $0.99
    • Janus Capital Group (JNS) 8 a.m., $0.16
    • Paccar (PCAR) 8 a.m., $0.79
    • U.S. Steel (X) 7:30 a.m., $0.49
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4 p.m., $0.48
    • FMC Technologies (FTI) 4 p.m., $0.45
    • Panera Bread Co (PNRA) 4 p.m., $1.34
    • RF Micro Devices (RFMD) 4 p.m., $(0.01)
    • Torchmark (TMK) 4 p.m., $1.28
    • Total System Services (TSS) 4 p.m., $0.30
    • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 4 p.m., $0.96
    • Amgen (AMGN) 4:01 p.m., $1.46
    • Life Technologies (LIFE) 4:01 p.m., $0.93
    • Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR) 4:01 p.m., $0.48
    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) 4:01 p.m., $1.12
    • Ace (ACE) 4:01 p.m., $1.87
    • DeVry (DV) 4:01 p.m., $0.99
    • Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) 4:01 p.m., $(0.40)
    • CBRE Group (CBG) 4:04 p.m., $0.13
    • Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4:05 p.m., $0.13
    • Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) 4:05 p.m., $0.52
    • Aflac (AFL) 4:07 p.m., $1.65
    • CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) 4:15 p.m., $0.65
    • International Game Technology (IGT) 4:15 p.m., $0.25
    • Apple (AAPL) 4:30 p.m., $10.03
    • Baidu (BIDU) 4:30 p.m., $5.43

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – they will not come down like other commodities have until Bernanke says something explicit about no Qe4; our model’s show you’d need to see a sustained breakdown on Brent and WTIC below $96/barrel to stabilize Consumption Growth. We’re nowhere near seeing that yet, but Energy stocks seem to be sniffing that out. 

  • U.K. Natural Gas Falls to 7-Week Low as Normal Weather Forecast
  • Total Gets First Output From Islay Gas Field in North Sea
  • GDF Suez Says Force Majeure Ended at Three French LNG Terminals
  • Coal to Rebound as China Sets Steel Output Record: Commodities
  • Oil Near Two-Day Low on Forecast U.S. Supplies at 11-Month High
  • Copper Rises as Limited Stocks Outside China May Bolster Prices
  • Soybeans Climb as South American Crop Outlook Falls; Wheat Rises
  • Cocoa Climbs as Prices May Have Fallen Too Far; Coffee Advances
  • Gold May Decline in London on Concern Over Slack Physical Demand
  • Silver ETP Assets Slump by Most in Four Years as Price Drops
  • Thailand Targets Rubber Rally by Buying Up Output: Nattawut
  • China to Boost Coal Imports on Wider Price Gap: Chart of the Day
  • Red Kite Is Neutral on Copper as Metals in Range on U.S., China
  • Oil Inventories Climb to 11-Month High in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Carlyle Stalking Sunoco Shows Private Equity Rebound Bet: Energy
  • Rates Rising as Record Chinese Oil Imports Affect Ships: Freight
  • Coal to Rebound on China Steel Production 

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CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – the DAX snapped my intermediate-term TREND line of 6688 support yesterday, so we’re watching that market very closely on this morning’s no-volume bounce to 6568 so far. German growth data started to slow in Feb/Mar and that matters. So does the German voice of “Strong Euro” overriding Bernanke’s politicized one on the US Dollar.

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ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – sadly, the Japanese have entered the final stage of the Currency War where both currency and equity markets start going down at the same time (think Europe from April 2011 to the 2011 crash bottom). The Yen’s decline was 1st, and now the Nikkei has been down for 13 of the last 15 trading days – BOJ bureaucrats begging for bond buying bailouts.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team