McCarran Airport reported that the number of enplaned/deplaned passengers fell 14.7% in November. The decline was the worst since the months following the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks, and the third straight monthly double digit drop. Hopefully, the follow through to Strip revenues will fare better than October when a 12.8% passenger decline translated into 23.2% revenue hit. I believe it will.
My model projects a 12% Strip revenue decline for November assuming normal hold percentages. The decline should be better than the airport data would otherwise suggest for two reasons. First, Strip slot machines held abnormally low in November of 2007. Second, low gas prices probably enticed a higher percentage of drive-in visitors than in recent months, which are obviously not captured by the McCarran data. Nevada gaming revenues should be released in a couple of weeks.
Less bad is hardly a long-term investment thesis and we remain very negative on Las Vegas.
My model projects a 12% Strip revenue decline for November assuming normal hold percentages. The decline should be better than the airport data would otherwise suggest for two reasons. First, Strip slot machines held abnormally low in November of 2007. Second, low gas prices probably enticed a higher percentage of drive-in visitors than in recent months, which are obviously not captured by the McCarran data. Nevada gaming revenues should be released in a couple of weeks.
Less bad is hardly a long-term investment thesis and we remain very negative on Las Vegas.
November data was worst since the 9/11 months
I project Strip revenues will fall less than the passenger decline
