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THE HBM: SBUX, RUTH, PFCB, BWLD

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Consumer

 

Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 10th came in at 351k versus 357k consensus and a revised 365k for the week prior (initially 362k).

 

THE HBM: SBUX, RUTH, PFCB, BWLD - initial claims

 

 

Commentary from CEO Keith McCullough

 

The good news is Greece is out of the Bloomberg Most Read (Today = #1 Goldman, #2 China, #3 Apple):

  1. ASIA – post the USA meltup in everything Apple and celebrations in Financials to a made-up test, Asia has basically been down for the last 2 days (Equities), with China and India leading the decline. Bulls were begging for India to cut rates last night and they didn’t (inflation), so the Sensex dropped -1.6% on that and snapped TRADE line support of 18,023, again. China’s FDI print was down -0.9% y/y – not good.
  2. SPAIN – acts like le chien de Sarkozy; the IBEX continues to flash a major negative divergence vs Global Equities as of late (Spain -1.4% YTD w/ Germany +20%!); when your stock, currency (Euro), and bond markets are all falling at the same time – not good.
  3. TREASURIES – here’s your hat-trick of ‘not goods’; if you are long anything in Fixed Income, that is (who would be?) – Treasury Bonds are getting blasted – 2yr yield have moved +44% to the upside in 2 weeks. It’s a good thing there is zero asymmetric risk w/ the Bernank’s zero bound policy.

People chasing performance can convince themselves this rally in Japanese, American, or Venezuelan stocks is all about Growth – or they can be realistic and just call it a chase. They chased into March end of 2008, 2010, and 2011 – that didn’t turn out so well by August.

 

KM

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: SBUX, RUTH, PFCB, BWLD - subsectors

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

SBUX: Deutsche Bank increased its price target on Starbucks from $59 to $61 on possible catalyst for sales from the company’s light roast launch.

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

RUTH: Ruth’s Chris has kicked off its “Sizzle, Swizzle and Swirl Happy Hour” premium bar menu at select locations, featuring food and drink items for $7, according to nrn.com.

 

PFCB: P.F. Chang’s was raised to Hold from Sell at Argus Research.

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings CEO Sally Smith appeared on CNBC’s show, Fast Money, last night and was not asked about wing prices once.  March Madness is good for business, though.

 

THE HBM: SBUX, RUTH, PFCB, BWLD - egg sets vs wing prices black

 

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

RRGB: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers gained 2% on accelerating volume.

 

THE HBM: SBUX, RUTH, PFCB, BWLD - stocks

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 15, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.81% downside to 1369 and 0.48% upside to 1401. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1436 (-3249) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 853.21 (-5.94%)
  • VIX:  15.31 3.45% YTD PERFORMANCE: -34.57%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.01 from 1.42 (-28.87%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


TREASURIES – here’s your hat-trick of ‘not goods’; if you are long anything in Fixed Income, that is (who would be?) – Treasury Bonds are getting blasted – 2yr yield have moved +44% to the upside in 2 weeks. It’s a good thing there is zero asymmetric risk with the Bernank’s zero bound policy. 

  • TED SPREAD: 39.24
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.29 from 2.27
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.82 from 1.74 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Mar., est. 17.5 (prior 19.53)
  • 8:30am: PPI (M/m), Feb., est. 0.5% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week Mar. 10, est. 357k (prior 362k)
  • 9am: TIC Flows, Jan., est. $40.0b (prior $87.1b)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Mar. 11, est. -36.0 (prior -36.7)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Mar., est. 12 from 10.2
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks to Economic Club of New York, Noon 

 GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama travels to an Prince George’s County Community College to talk about energy
  • FERC meets to discuss Exelon-Constellation merger, PJM plan for capacity pricing, 10am
  • House in recess, Senate in session:
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from Transportation Secretary on agency’s budget, 9am
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from FBI director on agency’s budget, 10am
    • Senate Environment subcommittee hears from Nuclear Regulatory Commission chairman on lessons from Fukushima, 10am
    • Senate Finance Committee hears from Deere & Co. Chairman on establishing normal trade relations with Russia, 10am
    • Supreme Court not in session 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Cisco Systems said to be in advanced talks to acquire NDS Group for $5b: Calcalist
  • Yahoo! investor Third Point plans to file preliminary proxy statement “within the week” to seek shareholder votes on proposed slate of four new directors
  • LSI Corp. filed complaint with ITC against Funai Electric, MediaTek and Realtek Semiconductor over technology used in audiovisual devices
  • Credit-card cos. report monthly net charge-offs, delinquencies
  • Schlumberger said to seek buyers for unit that distributes oilfield supplies, business that may fetch as much as $800m
  • Google will present changes to search engine over next few months that could affect millions of websites: WSJ
  • Morgan Stanley preparing to invest millions in Mexican energy cos. as country opens up industry to private capital
  • Foreclosure filings in the U.S. fell 8% in Feb., smallest y/y decrease since Oct. 2010: RealtyTrac
  • House Republicans pushing for new round of budget cuts this year, congressional aides say, raising possibility of govt. shutdown shortly before Nov. election
  • Tropical cyclone Lua forecast to strengthen on Australia’s northwest coast as Chevron evacuates workers from gas projects, iron ore ships steam out to sea 

 EARNINGS:

    • Quebecor (QBR/B CN) 6 a.m., C$0.91
    • Hanwa Solar (HSOL) 6 a.m., $(0.30)
    • Aurizon Mines (ARZ CN) 6 a.m., C$0.13
    • Gabriel Resources (GBU CN) 7 a.m., $(0.01)
    • Scholastic (SCHL) 7 a.m., $(0.70)
    • Winnebago (WGO) 7 a.m., $0.04
    • Cato (CATO) 7 a.m., $0.34
    • AMC Networks (AMCX) 8 a.m., $0.60
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 8:30 a.m., $0.85
    • Athabasca Oil Sands (ATH CN) Pre-mkt, C$(0.03)
    • Crescent Point Energy (CPG CN) 9 a.m., C$0.12
    • Dole (DOLE) 4:05 p.m., $(0.12) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Cocoa Rally Fading as African Rains Erase Shortage: Commodities
  • Soybeans Near Six-Month High as Brazil Crop May Miss Estimates
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low on Supply; Goldman Sees $130 Brent
  • Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Chinese, U.S. Economies
  • Gold Rebounds in New York as Low Interest Rates May Spur Demand
  • Cocoa Falls to One-Week Low as Rains Boost Crops; Sugar Advances
  • Global Food Prices Seen Declining as Demand Growth Slows
  • Rubber Shortage Widening to Bolster Prices, Producers Say
  • Oil Exports Ease Crude Sting for U.S. Economy: Chart of the Day
  • Obama’s Keystone Denial Imperils Refiners’ $25 Billion Oil Bet
  • Oil at $126 Boosts BP Ability to Pay More for Gulf Spill: Energy
  • Checking German Power May Trim Poland Price Gap: Energy Markets
  • Orange-Juice Price Seen Unaffected by End to U.S. Brazil Duties
  • Iron Ore Seen Rallying as China Lending Policy May Boost Demand
  • Fortescue Raises $2 Billion From Junk Bonds After Doubling Sale
  • Impala’s Hand Forced as Zimbabwe Starts Nationalization 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – acts like le chien de Sarkozy; the IBEX continues to flash a major negative divergence vs Global Equities as of late (Spain -1.4% YTD w/ Germany +20%!); when your stock, currency (Euro), and bond markets are all falling at the same time – not good.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – post the USA meltup in everything Apple and celebrations in Financials to a made-up test, Asia has basically been down for the last 2 days (Equities), with China and India leading the decline. Bulls were begging for India to cut rates last night and they didn’t (inflation), so the Sensex dropped -1.6% on that and snapped TRADE line support of 18,023, again. China’s FDI print was down -0.9% y/y – not good.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


Don't Hate The Debate

This note was originally published at 8am on March 01, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“You have to choose not to spiral into hate.”

-Izzeldin Abuelaish

 

On red yesterday I took up my positions in US Equities and Commodities to 12%, respectively, buying Utilities and Gold in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model. I also sold my entire US Dollar position (9%) on green. Don’t hate me for moving fast. Sometimes that’s just what I do.

 

‘Trading, Fast and Slow’ might be a good title for a new book (or maybe just a high-frequency tweet). It uses 3 words that some people in our business love to hate. Trading? Oh no, “I’m not a trader, I am an investor.” Ok. Do you invest fast or slow? Do you manage risk? Yes, we know – you actually have to trade to answer both of those questions.

 

While plenty of people from The Old Wall are just punching the over-compensation clock at this point, I think we have entered the thralls of creative destruction. These are the most exciting times of my 13-year career. There is so much to Re-think, Re-work, and Re-build.

 

We have an entire industry that needs to be debated. Every process. Every premise. Every minute of every day offers you an opportunity to not only get in the game, but be the change we all want to see in this profession.

 

If that sounds a little speechy, it’s because it is. As Ray Dalio at Bridgewater likes to say, this business is all about figuring out the truth. In the final pages of Izzeldin Abuelaish’s ‘I Shall Not Hate’, he comments on the same principles of risk management in the Middle East:

 

“I’m not talking about the light of religious faith here, but light as a symbol of truth. The light that allows you to see, clear away from the fog – to find wisdom. To find the light of the truth you have to talk to, listen to, and respect each other.” (page 196)

 

The partisan politics, economics, and investing styles that have failed us over the last 5yrs are broken. Don’t Hate The Debate. Embrace change and progress. We can always do better. We always have.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

One of the most heated debates I have with clients remains centered on the interconnectedness of the world’s reserve currency to market prices that are primarily denominated in that currency (US Dollars).

 

Since most of Western academia has not taught us to re-think markets this way, their dogma is now our dilemma. That’s why we need to slap on the accountability pants and hash this one out, fast. It’s time for the professors to be held accountable to the debate.

 

If you don’t think Fed Policy drives the US Dollar and Inflation/Deflation Expectations of assets priced in Dollars, try that theory at home with your own money. If the Fed were to even whisper about a rate hike, Oil and Gold would get hammered.

 

That’s why managing risk around big up/down moves in the USD is critical to getting Big Beta right. With the US Dollar Index up +0.8% on the day yesterday (one of its biggest up days of 2012), here’s what happened underneath the Globally Interconnected Market hood:

  1. Silver = down -6.9%
  2. Gold = down -5.5%
  3. Basic Materials (XLB) = down -1.9%

It’s a good thing the Dollar isn’t correlated to Apple.

 

Notwithstanding that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve didn’t mention the words (and hasn’t since 2006) CORRELATION RISK in his entire semi-annual testimony yesterday, we’re still not in the business of taking his word for it on what is or is not happening out there.

 

I know this is a touchy subject – particularly to the legions of Nobel Prize winners who get paid to be willfully blind to it. But this is America, not Russia. We, The People, have a fiduciary responsibility to hold central planners accountable.

 

Transparency, Accountability, and Trust?

  1. Transparency: Bernanke to Ron Paul yesterday on defining inflation - “I’ll talk to you about that offline”
  2. Accountability: Bernanke’s prepared remarks on his mandate for PRICE STABILITY -“as we expected, inflation was transitory”
  3. Trust: Bernanke on his forecasts – “my projections are considerably lower than last year”

Alrighty then.

  1. So there is no inflation because Bernanke chooses to define it with what’s just universally considered not true
  2. And as long as commodity markets oscillate between bubble and crash mode, price inflation/deflation is “transitory” and stable?
  3. And if you’re willing to take his word for it on forecasts that he’s had dead wrong, we can soft land this puppy perfectly

I really don’t hate the man. I Don’t Hate The Debate either. As an immigrant to what I genuinely felt was the last bastion of free-market of capitalism in the world, I just find being held hostage to an un-elected central planner who is obfuscating the truth un-American.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), Utilities (XLU), US Dollar Index, and the SP500 are now $1697-1735, $122.21-126.02, $34.74-35.68, $78.09-79.06, and 1363-1372, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Don't Hate The Debate - Chart of the Day

 

Don't Hate The Debate - Virtual Portfolio


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.



Experts vs Algos

“Why are experts inferior to algorithms?”

-Daniel Kahneman

 

That’s just another great risk management question from the guru of behavioral finance on page 224 of “Thinking, Fast and Slow.” If you don’t have time to read the entire book, definitely take the time to study and consider the implications of Chapter 21, Intuitions vs Formulas. In the last 4.5 years of my time away from a hedge fund desk, I’ve thought a lot about Experts vs Algos.

 

Understandably, algorithms scare people; particularly people who have zero analytical competence in modern math (i.e. 99% of the politicians and central planners running America). This contrasts sharply with the Chinese political leadership where 8 of China’s top 9 political dudes are mathematicians and/or scientists.

 

I started building my own predictive tracking algorithms so that I could attempt to remove the emotion when I hit buy and sell buttons. It helped me so much that we started plugging these predictors into our fundamental Growth and Inflation models for countries. That’s why our intermediate-term forecasts on things like GDP, PPI, etc. are so variant from the Old Wall’s consensus.

 

I’m not saying that what we have built is perfect. However, I am saying it’s better than what I used to use – and a lot of people on Old Wall Street still use what I was taught to use at A) the Keynesian School of Economics and B) the Sell-Side brokerage firms that perpetuate its dogmatic principles.

 

Kahneman’s answer to the aforementioned question is pretty simple. “One reason, which Meehl suspected, is that experts try to be clever, think outside the box, and consider complex combinations of features making their predictions. Complexity may work in the odd case, but more often than not it reduces validity. Simple combinations of features are better.” (page 224)

 

Kahneman goes on to remind us that “humans are incorrigibly inconsistent in making summary judgment of complex information.” And if there is one thing that any of you know about your own team’s investment meetings since late 2007, that’s God’s honest truth.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Rather than attempt to handicap who has to chase S&P 1400 into options expiration tomorrow (there’s a massively skewed position in the 1400 strike calls vs puts), I’ll just rattle off what my Algos think on risk ranges, prices, and probabilities vs Experts:

  1. SP500 could easily trade to 1401 inasmuch as it could fall to 1369 – that’s my immediate-term TRADE range
  2. US Equity Volatility (VIX) holds its long-term TAIL line of 14.21 support like a champ; upside to $17.34
  3. US Equity Volume/SKEW signals are at least as bearish as the 1987 signals that started developing in Q1 of 1987
  4. The first 2 of 9 S&P Sectors that have snapped their immediate-term TRADE lines of support (XLE and XLB) did last yr too
  5. Size (as in the risk management factor to describe cap) flashed another bearish signal yesterday (Russell 2000 = -0.82%)
  6. US Basic Materials (XLB) and Small Cap (IWM) stocks have been making lower-highs since peaking YTD on Feb 3rd
  7. US Dollar Index has moved back into a Bullish Formation (bullish on all 3 risk mgt durations – TRADE, TREND, and TAIL)
  8. US Treasury Yields are ripping above their intermediate-term TREND lines of 0.26% (2yr) and 2.03% (10yr), respectively
  9. US Treasury Yield Spread has widened 20bps as the Financials (XLF) have moved to immediate-term TRADE overbought
  10. US Technology (XLK) Sector Study is flashing a grossly immediate-term TRADE overbought signal at $29.97

While it’s tidy to tell ourselves that everything in America is fine, what all of this is really saying is that if Apple (17% of the XLK) and the Financials (up in a straight line in the last 2 days in response to the rallying cry of “success” to a made-up test) stop going up, the SP500 will probably stop going up too, in the immediate-term (3 weeks or less), at 1401.

 

What are the rest of the world’s signals telling us?

  1. Japanese Yen is crashing (yes when a Top 3 world currency drops 10% in a straight line, that’s a crash)
  2. Japanese Equities (like European Equities did around this time last year – pre Sov Debt Crisis) like a crashing currency
  3. Chinese stocks, down for 2 consecutive days (-3.3%) post the US “stress test”, still see Growth Slowing
  4. Indian stocks, down -1.6% overnight, failing at immediate-term TRADE resistance of 18,023 again, don’t like oil up here either
  5. Germany’s DAX melts up to +20% YTD as German bond yield spreads versus US Treasuries widen (bullish for Germany)
  6. Spain’s stock market (IBEX) is flashing a very bearish negative divergence vs Global Equities (down -1.4% YTD)
  7. Spanish bonds, currency (euro), and stocks are now all falling at the same time – clean cut sovereign debt alarm bell ringing
  8. Greece’s stock market would need to close > 771 on the Athex to signal any accomplishment of quantitative support
  9. Israel’s Equity market (TelAviv25) up for the 3rdconsecutive day, holding 1081 support (post Gaza “truce”)
  10. Dr Copper agrees with China on Growth Slowing, failing to close above its long-term TAIL line of $3.98/lb, again

Obviously weaving throughout this Storytelling of “growth is back” (as US GDP Growth gets cut in ½ sequentially vs Q4) are US stock market centric people trying to tell you that Gold falling is a “bullish sign for US stocks” (like they did in FEB and SEP of 2011). My Algos vs Experts on that say God Speed. Bond Yields spiked, momentarily, as US Stocks topped in February of 2011 too.

 

I’ve tried to not get mad at my Algos since 2008. They don’t give me any lip, and they don’t make excuses when they fail. They may have not always made my risk management views popular either. But at the big turns, before big draw-downs in asset prices, they’ve also gotten me out of the way.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (WTIC), US Dollar Index, Japanese Yen, and the SP500 are now $1, $105.02-106.49, $79.79-80.61, $82.71-83.98, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Experts vs Algos - 11. IBEX

 

Experts vs Algos - vp 3 15


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