• HEDGEYE’S MARKET BRIEF
    Our FREE Investing Newsletter
    Get Exclusive Summer Sale Discounts

    By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails. All Hedgeye products and services are subject to Hedgeye’s Terms of Service available at www.hedgeye.com/terms_of_service

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 12, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.50% downside to 1364 and 0.88% upside to 1383. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1202 (-575) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 719.04 (0.34%)
  • VIX:  17.11 -4.68% YTD PERFORMANCE: -26.88%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.57 from 0.98 (60.20%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


USD – the most important (and bullish on the margin for US Consumption Growth) recovery in the last few weeks has been the US Dollar Index recovering its intermediate-term TREND support of $79.36. With short-term Treasuries (2yr) breaking out above 0.26% TREND support and Gold struggling relative to oil, we are out of Gold for now. Considering the short side GLD and looking to buy USD back. 

  • TED SPREAD: 39.22
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.02 from 2.03
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.71 from 1.71 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 11am: Export inspections: corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30am, U.S. to sell $33b 3-mo., $31b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:00pm, U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 2:00pm, Monthly Budget, Feb., est. -$229.4b (prior -$222.5b)
  • 3:15 p.m. Bank of England’s Fisher speaks in London 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich hold rival events in Biloxi, Miss. ahead of Tuesday primary
    • House not in session this week, Senate in
    • Supreme Court in session, rulings expected 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Glencore said to have made approach for Viterra; Cargill may have expressed interest: WSJ
  • World Trade Organization may rule on appeal of decision that Boeing got at least $5.3b of illegal U.S. subsidies
  • Boehringer Ingelheim will consider buying Pfizer’s animal health business, provided co. sells it in parts: Economic Times
  • Fed’s extension of maturities, known as Operation Twist, may lower 10-yr yield by 85 bps: Bank of International Settlements
  • Fed said to be pushing back against some banks’ proposals to pay dividends, buy back shares after concluding lenders underestimating potential losses on consumer debt
  • Wells Fargo, Citigroup may join banks unleashing more than $9b in div. increases, shr buybacks if they get passing grades this week on Fed’s annual stress test
  • Chevron aims to catch up on Marcellus gas drilling: WSJ
  • Asahi Kasei agreed to buy Zoll Medical for up to $2.2b
  • Temenos, Misys fail to reach agreement, terminate talks; Misys says talks with Vista, CVC/ValueAct continuing
  • Global banking regulators will seek accord later this month on changes to draft liquidity rules criticized by some govts, lenders as threat to economic recovery
  • Average price for regular gasoline at U.S. filling stations increased 12.31c to $3.8148/gallon over past 2 wks: Lundberg
  • Swatch to contest counterclaim by Tiffany & Co. over end of alliance between the cos.
  • Euro-area finance ministers meet to discuss Greece’s progress in fulfilling commitments under a 130b euro rescue program
  • Craig Bouchard, co-founder of Esmark, said to be close to announcing deal to buy HD Supply’s pipe, valve distribution unit for ~$500m
  • Disney’s “John Carter” took in $30.6m in U.S. Canada, trailing “The Lorax"; est. range: $25m-$38.9m
  • No U.S. IPOs scheduled 

EARNINGS

    • FuelCell Energy (FCEL) Pre-Mkt, $(0.06)
    • Silver Standard Resources (SSO CN) Pre-Mkt, $(0.12)
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.29
    • Carmike Cinemas (CKEC) 4:02pm, $0.16
    • Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) 4:05pm, $(0.17)  

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Hedge Funds Trimmed Wagers Before Prices Rebounded: Commodities
  • Oil Drops From One-Week High as China’s Exports Miss Forecasts
  • Coffee Declines to 17-Month Low on Speculation of Brazil’s Sales
  • Copper Falls on Signals of Slowdown in China, Largest Consumer
  • Gold Declines as Commodities Slide, Hedge Funds Cut Holdings
  • India Ends Cotton-Shipment Ban, to Revalidate Existing Permits
  • Palm Oil Inventories in Malaysia Climb 2% as Exports Drop
  • Soybeans May Gain After USDA Cut Forecast on Global Inventories
  • Rubber Top May Be 358 Yen, Fibonacci Shows: Technical Analysis
  • Aluminum Stockpiles in Japan Drop From Highest Since 2009
  • TNK-BP Yield Drops Below Gazprom as Oil Beats Gas: Russia Credit
  • Bullish Oil Bets Drop as Tension With Iran Eases: Energy Markets
  • Soybean Imports by China May Rise to Record, Grain Bureau Says
  • Cotton Declines as India Scraps Export Ban
  • Glencore Said to Express an Interest in Grain-Handler Viterra
  • Chesapeake CEO Courts Asians for $100 Billion Resource: Energy 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 


ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – worst Trade Deficit in 22yrs (let’s call that ever – and ever is a long time) at -$31.5B after last week saw that big sequential drop in Chinese IP growth (to 11% vs 14% in JAN despite Lunar shift). Growth Slowing. Chinese stocks looking for a rate cut.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL someone knows something or someone thinks they do – what we can’t see here makes us call it out as the Tel Aviv25 Index not only moved to red for 2012 YTD last week, but is down another full 1% this morning (down -4% in since Feb 21). Iran?


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team