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MACRO NOTES

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

I couldn’t make up this #1 Headline on Bloomberg this morn if I tried – “STOCKS, OIL CLIMB ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY”:

  1. RUSSIA – which is obviously a PetroDollar Equity market continues to rage higher as inflation expectations do. The RTSI is up another +2.4% this morning and +22% for the YTD as President Obama blames oil rising on “Wall Street Speculators” (dollar down be damned)
  2. COPPER – the Doctor just doesn’t agree with this manic media headline at all – neither does the 10yr UST yield – both are failing at critical lines of resistance of $3.85/lb and 2.03%, respectively, this morning. Those who confuse inflation with growth will be doing it for the 3rd time since 2008.
  3. YEN – How one of the world’s top 3 currencies can collapse like this and it not be called out by consensus is far beyond my reach. The Yen is down -6% for the month-to-date! Its not a straight line down, but its close – reminds me of the Euro falling off its highs in April of 2011 and consensus saying “hey, buy European exporters!” – we continue to see this sov debt maturity spike (March) in Japan as the why on Yen…

I’m net long equities for this morning’s open and I shouldn’t be. High Frequency Gambling at this pt.

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HBM: YUM, MCD, COSI, DRI - subsecotr 1

 

QUICK SERVICE

YUM: Yum’s Taco Bell will debut a new marketing campaign this weekend centered on a new “Live Más” slogan.

MCD: McDonald’s is offering the McBaguette in France; a Charolais burger served on a baguette.

COSI: Cosi has regained compliance with Nasdaq listing standards.

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

SONC:  No news hitting the tape but we believe that SONC is a big beneficiary of weather this year – the weekend of February 5thsaw Texas covered with snow from the Rio Grande to the Oklahoma border.

THI: Tim Hortons gained 4% on accelerating volume thanks to strong earnings hitting the tape yesterday before market open.

JACK: Jack in the Box declined on earnings.

 

CASUAL DINING

DRI: Darden is hosting its Analyst Day in NYC today.  In an interview with CNBC yesterday, CEO Clarence Otis said that shrimp costs are up and also that he sees good fundamentals at Olive Garden.

THE HBM: YUM, MCD, COSI, DRI - stocks

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst