THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 17, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 11 points or -0.74% downside to 1348 and 0.07% upside to 1359. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1541 (2009) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 805.81 (-0.07%)
  • VIX:  19.22 -9.08% YTD PERFORMANCE: -17.86%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.45 from 2.40 (-39.58%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 39.65
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.09%
  • 10-Year: 2.00 from 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.71 from 1.69 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: CPI, M/m, Jan., est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
  • 10am: Leading Indicators, Jan., est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
  • 10am: API monthly report
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama talks about U.S. manufacturing at Boeing plant in Everett, Wash. 11:25am
  • CFTC holds closed hearing on enforcement matters, 10am
  • Mitt Romney, Ron Paul make campaign appearances in Idaho; Rick Santorum visits Michigan; Newt Gingrich speaks in Georgia
  • House Energy meets to mark up resolution authorizing issuance of subpoenas in probe of federal loans to Solyndra. 9:45am
  • House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on the agency’s budget. 10am
  • House Armed Services Committee hears from Army Secretary John McHugh, Army Chief of Staff Raymond Odierno on the budget request. 10am 

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • Germany said to want euro-area finance chiefs to avoid two- step vote on EU130b Greek rescue and a bond swap to cut the nation’s debt load at a meeting next week
  • CME Group has made bid for London Metal Exchange; NYSE Euronext said to also be interested
  • Cost of living in the U.S. may have gained 0.3% in Jan. on higher prices for food and energy, economists est.
  • Networker John Kinnucan arrested by FBI in trading probe
  • CVR Energy said it will review Carl Icahn’s offer of at least $30-shr
  • Alibaba Group Holding said to plan to privatize its Alibaba.com unit close to its IPO price
  • U.S. ITC may rule on whether Apple infringed on a patent owned by smartphone maker HTC
  • U.K. Jan. retail sales rose 0.9%; median forecast 0.3% decline
  • German President Christian Wulff resigned amid the threat of a legal probe into corruption allegations 

 EARNINGS:

    • Amerigroup (AGP) 6:00am, $0.62
    • Encana (ECA CN) 6:00am, $0.10
    • Barnes Group (B) 6:30am, $0.32
    • HJ Heinz (HNZ) 7:00am, $0.85
    • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) 7:00am, $1.01
    • Enbridge (ENB CN) 7:00am, C$0.39
    • LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT) 7:00am, $0.76
    • Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) 7:00am, $(0.30)
    • Ventas (VTR) 7:01am, $0.89
    • Campbell Soup (CPB) 7:30am, $0.62
    • HMS Holdings (HMSY) 7:30am, $0.15
    • Brookfield Asset Management (BAM/A CN) 8:00am, $0.51
    • Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO) 8:06am, $0.63 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – never has Oil trading > $100/barrel not slowed both US and Global Consumption Growth. Maybe this time is different. Maybe it isn’t. Brent Oil busting to new highs this morning on a weak US Dollar and institutional performance chasing squarely focused on buying inflation protection. 

  • Gold Bulls Expand as Billionaire Paulson Says Buy: Commodities
  • CME Group Said to Submit Bid to Buy London Metal Exchange
  • Copper Trims Weekly Drop on U.S. Economy, Greece Bailout Outlook
  • Oil Set for Biggest 2012 Weekly Gain on U.S. Economy, Greek Aid
  • Shanghai Copper Stockpiles Rise to Record 217,142 Tons
  • Uganda Coffee Exports May Climb 3.1% as Nation’s Crop Expands
  • Wheat Advances as Egypt Buys From U.S.; Corn, Soybeans Gain
  • Cocoa Falls as Exporters Agree to Ivorian Sales; Coffee Declines
  • Palm Oil Advances to Three-Month High on Optimism Over Recovery
  • World’s Biggest Platinum Mine Under Police Control After Riots
  • Small Hedge Funds Draw Money as Their Bigger Rivals Stumble
  • Timchenko’s Kolmar to Boost Coal Output Fivefold, Eyes Seaport
  • Tullow Seen Beating Peers With $30 Billion Africa Find: Energy
  • Midwest Farmland Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since ’76, Fed Says
  • Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Gain This Year
  • Copper Climbs Before U.S. Leading Indicators Report: LME Preview
  • Gold May Gain on Speculation Greece Bailout Will Weaken Dollar 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


SINGAPORE – when the Prime Minister of Singapore warned of a “rough landing” in China last week, our research team was buzzing about it – they should have been; Singapore is a leading indicator for Global Growth – and Singapore’s Exports for JAN just dropped to negative y/y! (-2.1% vs +9.0% DEC). Chinese Growth is slowing – We sold our China Equities (CAF) long (bought it in DEC) yesterday.

 

JAPANESE YEN – biggest currency drop not discussed by consensus media, maybe ever – and ever, as you know, is a long time. The Yen is literally straight down for the month of FEB. Down 4% is a monster move for a major currency. We think this is front-running the Sovereign Debt Maturity spike that’s pending in March. When we were saying this about the Euro breaking down hard in April 2011, that was the early signal too…

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more