THE HBM: SBUX, CBOU, WEN, COSI, DNKN, CAKE, RUTH, BWLD, PFCB, KONA

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

 

Consensus continues to clamor for Greek headlines – meanwhile the rest of the world’s globally interconnected risk continues to manifest:

  1. JAPAN – top 3 economy in the world drops to a -2.3% y/y GDP print in Q411 (brutal); now its full throttle game on for the Japanese as we head toward a massive sov debt maturity in March ($745B!). When we were getting hawked up about Italian debt in Feb of 2011, consensus didn’t have it in the area code of its map either. Stay tuned…
  2. FRANCE – alongside covering our SPY short, we covered our French Equity short position on Friday as well. Typically, short-and-hold isn’t what I do. That said, I’m watching the long-term TAIL line of resistance for the CAC of 3556 very closely as I think that’s going to be a good proxy for non-German European growth/inflation for the next few quarters.
  3. OIL – hooo-wah! Big breakout for Brent Oil to $118.28/barrel this morning w/ no immediate-term TRADE resistance to $120ish. If you’re looking for the #1 factor that will slow global consumption growth sequentially here in February (vs what was a big growth ramp in DEC/JAN), the black stuff in the barrel is it.

 

Immediate-term TRADE range for SP500 is now 1338 (where I covered Friday) to 1360. Keep moving out there.

KM

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: SBUX, CBOU, WEN, COSI, DNKN, CAKE, RUTH, BWLD, PFCB, KONA - subsector

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

SBUX: A Starbucks in Athens burned last night as rioters set fire to buildings during unrest following the Greek parliament’s passing of another austerity bill.

 

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

CBOU, WEN and COSI all led the QSR space on accelerating volume

 

DNKN declined on accelerating volume Friday.

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

CAKE: Cheesecake Factory is to change its menus at its seven Massachusetts locations to include prices by March 16th, according to the Boston Herald.  A Massachusetts based attorney, Ross Mitchell, threatened to sue the chain for deceptive business practices after receiving a check that exceeded expectations.

 

CAKE: In more bad news for Cheesecake Factory, one of its restaurants in Boise is at the center of a possible Hepatitis A scare, according to local media.

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

RUTH: Gained 2.7% on accelerating volume following earnings.

 

BWLD: Continues higher, up 1.3% on accelerating volume.

 

PFCB: Down -1.2% on accelerating volume.

 

KONA: Declined -3.7% on accelerating volume.

 

THE HBM: SBUX, CBOU, WEN, COSI, DNKN, CAKE, RUTH, BWLD, PFCB, KONA - stocks

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more