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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 13, 2012

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.35% downside to 1338 and 1.29% upside to 1360. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1604 (-1640) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 750.64 (-1.13%)
  • VIX:  20.79 11.59% YTD PERFORMANCE: -11.15%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.40 from 1.54 (-9.09%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 42.47
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.02 from 1.99
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.71

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 11am: Export inspections: corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $33b 3-mo., $31b 6-mo. bills
  • 9:45pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Claremont, Calif.

 GOVERNMENT:

  • Obama delivers remarks on FY2013 budget request in speech to Northern Virginia Community College students, 11am
  • Numerous departments, including transportation, HHS, energy, hold budget briefings
  • House meets in pro forma session, 1pm. Senate meets 2pm    

 WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Greek parliament approves austerity measures as rioters battled police, set fire to buildings in Athens
  • European finance ministers will meet Feb. 15 to ratify Greek aid package
  • Japan’s 4Q GDP fell more than expected, -0.6% on quarter vs -0.3% est.
  • U.S. Budget to outline how govt. spends more than $3 trillion in next fiscal year
  • Vodafone says in early stages of evaluation a potential offer for Cable & Wireless
  • Weatherford cleared of Macondo disaster liability, Judge says
  • Apple adds patent infringement claims against Samsung with suit
  • ‘The Vow’ is No. 1 movie with $41.7m in ticket sales, second weekend on record that four movies gross more than $20m each
  • Goldman to Sell 9.5m Shares in Hana Financial: Dow Jones
  • EU Willing to Be Flexible on Airlines Emissions Tax: WSJ

 EARNINGS:

  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 7 a.m., $(0.61)
  • Diebold (DBD) 7:30 a.m., $0.84
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP-u CN) 8 a.m., $0.07
  • Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) 4 p.m., $0.04
  • Rackspace Hosting (RAX) 4 p.m., $0.15
  • Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) 4:01 p.m., $0.23
  • Gen-Probe (GPRO) 4:01 p.m., $0.68
  • Health Management Associates (HMA) 4:01 p.m., $0.21
  • Lender Processing Services (LPS) 4:05 p.m., $0.58
  • Seattle Genetics (SGEN) 4:05 p.m., $(0.30)
  • Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) 4:06 p.m., $0.65
  • Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) 4:30 p.m., $0.56
  • Masco (MAS) 5 p.m., $(0.02)
  • TAL International Group (TAL) 5:48 p.m., $0.98

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – hooo-wah! Big breakout for Brent Oil to $118.28/barrel this morning with no immediate-term TRADE resistance to $120ish. If you’re looking for the #1 factor that will slow global consumption growth sequentially here in February (vs what was a big growth ramp in DEC/JAN), the black stuff in the barrel is it.

  • Speculators Lift Wagers to Highest Since September: Commodities
  • Gold Advances in London as Weaker Dollar Spurs Investor Demand
  • Oil Rises From Three-Day Low as Greece Passes Austerity Measures
  • Copper Rises as Equities, Euro Gain on Greek Austerity Approval
  • Wheat Gains as Drought Threatens Ukraine, Egypt Buys From U.S.
  • Robusta Coffee Rises as Vietnamese Exports Fall; Sugar Advances
  • Iran Sanctions Tighten as OSG to Frontline Halt Crude Loading
  • Soybean Oil Futures Rise in China to 3-Month High: Beijing Mover
  • Dragon-Year Baby Boom Seen Boosting China’s Milk-Powder Imports
  • Rusal Plans to Keep First-Quarter Output Stable, Sell Inventory
  • Chinalco Unit Expects China Aluminum Market in Surplus This Year
  • Hedge Fund Heating Oil Bets Surge on Deadly Cold: Energy Markets
  • First Solar-to-Vestas Wind Profit Crash Deters New CEOs: Energy
  • Crude Rises From Three-Day Low on Greece
  • Russia Wheat Exports Restricted by Domestic Price, SovEcon Says

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

FRANCE – alongside covering our SPY short, we covered our French Equity short position on Friday as well. Typically, short-and-hold isn’t what we do. That said, we’re watching the long-term TAIL line of resistance for the CAC of 3556 very closely as we think that’s going to be a good proxy for non-German European growth/inflation for the next few quarters.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

JAPAN – top 3 economy in the world drops to a -2.3% y/y GDP print in Q411 (brutal); now its full throttle game on for the Japanese as we head toward a massive sovereign debt maturity in March ($745B!). When we were getting hawked up about Italian debt in Feb of 2011, consensus didn’t have it in the area code of its map either. Stay tuned…

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team