TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 2, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 9 points or -0.54% downside to 1317 and 0.14% upside to 1326.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1973 (1456)
- VOLUME: NYSE 892.64 (-13.69%)
- VIX: 18.55 -4.58% YTD PERFORMANCE: -20.73%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.68 from 1.56 (7.69%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
TREASURIES – if you only bet with the bond market for the last year on its implied growth slowing/accelerating signals, you’d have not been sucked into any of the lower-highs in US Equities (FEB 2011, APR 2011, JAN 2012). We bought the long-bond back yesterday as the 10yr yield looks like it wants to make lower-lows for the YTD.
- TED SPREAD: 48.12
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
- 10-Year: 1.83 from 1.83
- YIELD CURVE: 1.61 from 1.60
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), Jan.
- 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity (4Q P), est. 0.8% (prior 2.3%)
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Jan. 28, est. 370k (prior 377k)
- 9am: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Jan. 29
- 10am: Fed’s Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee
- 7:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Austin, Texas
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama attends 60th National Prayer Breakfast, 7:30am
- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on U.S. economy before House Budget Cmte., 10am
- Fannie Mae Chief Economist Douglas Duncan gives outlook for housing market to National Economists Club, noon
- House transportation committee considers 5-yr, $260b highway construction bill
- House, Senate in session:
- House Energy and Commerce subcommittee receives report of blue-ribbon commission on America’s nuclear future, 9:30am (Will hear from FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg on reauthorization of the prescription drug user fee act) 10am
- House-Senate payroll tax cut conference committee meets, 10am
- House Budget Committee hears from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf on the economic outlook, 10am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- ECB is likely to refuse to show its hand on how it will help cut Greece’s debt burden until investors and the govt. have agreed to a deal, economists said
- U.S. retailers inc. Macy’s, Gap report Jan. comp sales; Retail Metrics est. 2% gain, would be weakest monthly sales growth since Oct. 2010
- Glencore offered to buy outstanding $35b stake Xstrata that it doesn’t already own
- Facebook filed to raise $5b in largest Internet IPO on record
- IPO may value Mark Zuckerberg’s stake at $28.4b
- MF Global risk chief switch stalled euro debt cut by 6 mos.
- Ex-Credit Suisse CDO chief charged in scheme to boost bonuses
- Deutsche Bank reported 76% drop in 4Q profit as sovereign debt crisis curbed trading
- Sony Corp. more than doubled its annual loss forecast to $2.9b
- AstraZeneca to cut 7,300 jobs
- Deadline for states whether to join a proposed nationwide foreclosure settlement with banks to Feb. 6 from Feb. 3, Iowa’s Attorney General said
EARNINGS:
- Cigna (CI) 6 a.m., $1.19
- Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6 a.m., $0.99
- Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) 6 a.m., $0.57
- Dow Chemical Co/The (DOW) 6:30 a.m., $0.31
- PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30 a.m., $0.07
- Roper Industries (ROP) 6:30 a.m., $1.21
- Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30 a.m., $0.49
- Boston Scientific (BSX) 7 a.m., $0.08
- Cardinal Health (CAH) 7 a.m., $0.76
- CME Group (CME) 7 a.m., $3.64
- International Paper Co (IP) 7 a.m., $0.61
- Merck & Co (MRK) 7 a.m., $0.95
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 7 a.m., $1.30
- Snap-on (SNA) 7 a.m., $1.18
- Viacom (VIAB) 7 a.m., $1.05
- Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7 a.m., $0.47
- Xcel Energy (XEL) 7 a.m., $0.30
- Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7 a.m., $1.49
- Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 7:04 a.m., $1.39
- Goodrich (GR) 7:25 a.m., $1.57
- Cummins (CMI) 7:30 a.m., $2.24
- Sara Lee (SLE) 7:30 a.m., $0.25
- TECO Energy (TE) 7:30 a.m., $0.28
- Ryder System (R) 7:55 a.m., $0.97
- Kellogg Co (K) 8 a.m., $0.62
- Mastercard (MA) 8 a.m., $3.91
- Cameron International (CAM) 8:15 a.m., $0.76
- Blackstone Group (BX) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
- New York Times (NYT) 8:30 a.m., $0.42
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) 8:32 a.m., $0.16
- Allergan (AGN) 9 a.m., $1.00
- CareFusion (CFN) 4 p.m., $0.44
- Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4 p.m., $0.59
- Principal Financial Group (PFG) 4 p.m., $0.75
- Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) 4 p.m., $1.29
- Trimble Navigation Ltd (TRMB) 4 p.m., $0.48
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4 p.m., $0.72
- Fiserv (FISV) 4:01 p.m., $1.27
- Sunoco (SUN) 4:01 p.m., $(0.29)
- Stericycle (SRCL) 4:02 p.m., $0.74
- Novellus Systems (NVLS) 4:04 p.m., $0.45
- Con-way (CNW) 4:05 p.m., $0.36
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) 4:05 p.m., $1.05
- PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
- Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) 4:05 p.m., $0.23
- Genworth MI Canada (MIC CN) 4:07 p.m., $0.78
- Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:10 p.m., $0.19
- Validus Holdings Ltd (VR) 4:15 p.m., $0.78
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the Doctor finally breaking its most immediate-term price momentum level of support of $3.83/lb this morning at the same time that Singaporean Stocks back off and moved red into the close. Stealth signals, but they’re leading ones that matter in our model. Copper’s long-term TAIL of 3.98/lb resistance intact – lower-highs.
- Copper Falls on Signals Demand May Be Poised to Slow in China
- Oil Falls to Six-Week Low as Stockpiles Rise, Fuel Demand Slips
- Gold May Advance as European Debt Crisis Concerns Spur Demand
- Glencore Makes Approach for Remaining $35 Billion Xstrata Stake
- Colombia Drug Lords’ Cattle Theft Rob Rally Benefit: Commodities
- Wheat Falls as Rain in U.S. Boosts Crop Prospects; Corn Drops
- Coffee Falls for Sixth Session on Ample Supplies; Sugar Retreats
- North Sea Oil Exports to Asia at 8-Year High: Energy Markets
- Impala Fires 17,200 Workers at World’s Biggest Platinum Mine
- Kinder Morgan Lapping Enbridge in Canadian Pipeline Race: Energy
- Rail Bottlenecks Thwart India Efforts to End Blackouts: Freight
- YPF Nationalization Concern Spurs Bond Plunge: Argentina Credit
- Emerging Nations’ Buying to Drive Gold to Record, JPMorgan Says
- Gold at Eight-Week High on Output, Dollar
- Shell to Boost Dividend for First Time Since 2009 on Projects
- EU Biofuels Targets to Cost Consumers $166 Billion, Study Says
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – all of the high-frequency economic data (inflation accel, growth decel) looks primed to slow in FEB as both the Shanghai Comp (+2% last night) and the Hang Seng (+12.5% YTD!) move to immediate-term TRADE overbought signals. Plenty of Johnny come lately pundits, who we didn’t hear a peep from when we bought China in DEC, going bullish.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team