THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

02/02/12 07:42AM EST

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 2, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 9 points or -0.54% downside to 1317 and 0.14% upside to 1326. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1973 (1456) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 892.64 (-13.69%)
  • VIX:  18.55 -4.58% YTD PERFORMANCE: -20.73%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.68 from 1.56 (7.69%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

TREASURIES – if you only bet with the bond market for the last year on its implied growth slowing/accelerating signals, you’d have not been sucked into any of the lower-highs in US Equities (FEB 2011, APR 2011, JAN 2012). We bought the long-bond back yesterday as the 10yr yield looks like it wants to make lower-lows for the YTD.

  • TED SPREAD: 48.12
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
  • 10-Year: 1.83 from 1.83
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.61 from 1.60

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), Jan.
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity (4Q P), est. 0.8% (prior 2.3%)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Jan. 28, est. 370k (prior 377k)
  • 9am: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Jan. 29
  • 10am: Fed’s Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee
  • 7:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Austin, Texas

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama attends 60th National Prayer Breakfast, 7:30am
  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on U.S. economy before House Budget Cmte., 10am
  • Fannie Mae Chief Economist Douglas Duncan gives outlook for housing market to National Economists Club, noon
  • House transportation committee considers 5-yr, $260b highway construction bill
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Energy and Commerce subcommittee receives report of blue-ribbon commission on America’s nuclear future, 9:30am (Will hear from FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg on reauthorization of the prescription drug user fee act) 10am
    • House-Senate payroll tax cut conference committee meets, 10am
    • House Budget Committee hears from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf on the economic outlook, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • ECB is likely to refuse to show its hand on how it will help cut Greece’s debt burden until investors and the govt. have agreed to a deal, economists said
  • U.S. retailers inc. Macy’s, Gap report Jan. comp sales; Retail Metrics est. 2% gain, would be weakest monthly sales growth since Oct. 2010
  • Glencore offered to buy outstanding $35b stake Xstrata that it doesn’t already own
  • Facebook filed to raise $5b in largest Internet IPO on record
  • IPO may value Mark Zuckerberg’s stake at $28.4b
  • MF Global risk chief switch stalled euro debt cut by 6 mos.
  • Ex-Credit Suisse CDO chief charged in scheme to boost bonuses
  • Deutsche Bank reported 76% drop in 4Q profit as sovereign debt crisis curbed trading
  • Sony Corp. more than doubled its annual loss forecast to $2.9b
  • AstraZeneca to cut 7,300 jobs
  • Deadline for states whether to join a proposed nationwide foreclosure settlement with banks to Feb. 6 from Feb. 3, Iowa’s Attorney General said

EARNINGS:

    • Cigna (CI) 6 a.m., $1.19
    • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6 a.m., $0.99
    • Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) 6 a.m., $0.57
    • Dow Chemical Co/The (DOW) 6:30 a.m., $0.31
    • PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30 a.m., $0.07
    • Roper Industries (ROP) 6:30 a.m., $1.21
    • Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30 a.m., $0.49
    • Boston Scientific (BSX) 7 a.m., $0.08
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) 7 a.m., $0.76
    • CME Group (CME) 7 a.m., $3.64
    • International Paper Co (IP) 7 a.m., $0.61
    • Merck & Co (MRK) 7 a.m., $0.95
    • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 7 a.m., $1.30
    • Snap-on (SNA) 7 a.m., $1.18
    • Viacom (VIAB) 7 a.m., $1.05
    • Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7 a.m., $0.47
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) 7 a.m., $0.30
    • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7 a.m., $1.49
    • Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 7:04 a.m., $1.39
    • Goodrich (GR) 7:25 a.m., $1.57
    • Cummins (CMI) 7:30 a.m., $2.24
    • Sara Lee (SLE) 7:30 a.m., $0.25
    • TECO Energy (TE) 7:30 a.m., $0.28
    • Ryder System (R) 7:55 a.m., $0.97
    • Kellogg Co (K) 8 a.m., $0.62
    • Mastercard (MA) 8 a.m., $3.91
    • Cameron International (CAM) 8:15 a.m., $0.76
    • Blackstone Group (BX) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
    • New York Times (NYT) 8:30 a.m., $0.42
    • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) 8:32 a.m., $0.16
    • Allergan (AGN) 9 a.m., $1.00
    • CareFusion (CFN) 4 p.m., $0.44
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4 p.m., $0.59
    • Principal Financial Group (PFG) 4 p.m., $0.75
    • Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) 4 p.m., $1.29
    • Trimble Navigation Ltd (TRMB) 4 p.m., $0.48
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4 p.m., $0.72
    • Fiserv (FISV) 4:01 p.m., $1.27
    • Sunoco (SUN) 4:01 p.m., $(0.29)
    • Stericycle (SRCL) 4:02 p.m., $0.74
    • Novellus Systems (NVLS) 4:04 p.m., $0.45
    • Con-way (CNW) 4:05 p.m., $0.36
    • Gilead Sciences (GILD) 4:05 p.m., $1.05
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
    • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) 4:05 p.m., $0.23
    • Genworth MI Canada (MIC CN) 4:07 p.m., $0.78
    • Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:10 p.m., $0.19
    • Validus Holdings Ltd (VR) 4:15 p.m., $0.78

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

COPPER – the Doctor finally breaking its most immediate-term price momentum level of support of $3.83/lb this morning at the same time that Singaporean Stocks back off and moved red into the close. Stealth signals, but they’re leading ones that matter in our model. Copper’s long-term TAIL of 3.98/lb resistance intact – lower-highs.

  • Copper Falls on Signals Demand May Be Poised to Slow in China
  • Oil Falls to Six-Week Low as Stockpiles Rise, Fuel Demand Slips
  • Gold May Advance as European Debt Crisis Concerns Spur Demand
  • Glencore Makes Approach for Remaining $35 Billion Xstrata Stake
  • Colombia Drug Lords’ Cattle Theft Rob Rally Benefit: Commodities
  • Wheat Falls as Rain in U.S. Boosts Crop Prospects; Corn Drops
  • Coffee Falls for Sixth Session on Ample Supplies; Sugar Retreats
  • North Sea Oil Exports to Asia at 8-Year High: Energy Markets
  • Impala Fires 17,200 Workers at World’s Biggest Platinum Mine
  • Kinder Morgan Lapping Enbridge in Canadian Pipeline Race: Energy
  • Rail Bottlenecks Thwart India Efforts to End Blackouts: Freight
  • YPF Nationalization Concern Spurs Bond Plunge: Argentina Credit
  • Emerging Nations’ Buying to Drive Gold to Record, JPMorgan Says
  • Gold at Eight-Week High on Output, Dollar
  • Shell to Boost Dividend for First Time Since 2009 on Projects
  • EU Biofuels Targets to Cost Consumers $166 Billion, Study Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – all of the high-frequency economic data (inflation accel, growth decel) looks primed to slow in FEB as both the Shanghai Comp (+2% last night) and the Hang Seng (+12.5% YTD!) move to immediate-term TRADE overbought signals. Plenty of Johnny come lately pundits, who we didn’t hear a peep from when we bought China in DEC, going bullish.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.