Macau stocks may face a headwind next week if expectations for a record month are not met.
This is the January Macau forecast from a brain: HK$23-25 billion
This is the January Macau forecast from a brain on drugs: HK$26-28 billion
Unfortunately, January expectations for Macau seem to have gotten a little ahead of likely reality. Of course, there is always the possiblity of crazy high hold during Chinese New Year (the reverse is also possible) but we don't believe January 2012 will be a monthly record. HK$24 billion is our point estimate which would still represent healthy 40% YoY growth off of an easy comparison. We've been consistently bullish about January, until now and only because expectations have risen and the stocks have soared.
We should be getting two weeks worth of revenue numbers on Monday which will come close to sealing the quarter. If consensus expectations are indeed for a record month, investors may be disappointing and the Macau stocks could be off to a tough start to the week. Of course, then we have to contend a February free of CNY, unlike last year.