Q1 2012 MACRO THEMES AND PRESENTATION

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Materials:"Q1 2012 THEMES"

                 
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Q1 THEMES & PRESENTATION:

STRONG DOLLAR = STRONG CONSUMPTION, DEFLATING THE INFLATION II & GROWTH SLOWING'S BOTTOM

Topics will include:

  • Strong Dollar = Strong Consumption - Our King Dollar thesis continues to strengthen and with it the outlook for U.S. consumption, roughly 70% of GDP, and U.S. consumption-related equities.
  • Deflating the Inflation II - Alongside the strengthening of the King Dollar and the continued high inverse correlation of commodities to the U.S. dollar, we expect to see commodity inflation continue to subside. Winners include: domestic and international consumers. Losers include: commodity producers and emerging market currencies as their central banks ease monetary policy.
  • Growth Slowing's Bottom - One standard bearer of global macro markets is that they revert to the mean.  As economic growth bottoms out, certain equity markets, notably China, Germany, and the U.S., look set to outperform.

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