THE M3: CHINESE NOVEMBER LOANS

The Macau Metro Monitor, December 6, 2011

CHINESE BANKS MAKE CNY550-600BN NEW LOANS IN NOVEMBER China Securities Journal, Market News International

According to China Securities Journal, the Big Four state-owned banks (the Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China) extended CNY90 billion in new loans in the last three working days of November, bringing their total to CNY220 billion for November.  In October, the Big Four lent CNY238 billion.  Citing sources, the newspaper said the lending in the last three days was more than expected.

Overall, Chinese banks lent an estimated CNY550-600 billion in new loans in November.  The People's Bank of China showed that overall new loans reached CNY586.8 billion in October.  The median forecast for November is CNY550 billion in a survey by Market News International.

The PBOC's new loan number has become a less reliable indicator of credit flows through the economy in recent years as a result of the sharp increase in lending via the shadow banking system.  The central bank is expected to announce new loan data for November between December 9 and December 15.