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    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

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Initial Claims Rise for the Second Week

The headline initial claims number rose 9k WoW to 402k (up 6k after a 3k upward revision to last week’s data).  Rolling claims rose 0.5k to 396k. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, reported claims fell 70k WoW to 371k for the week of Thanksgiving.

We’ve previously identified 375k – 400k as the claims range where unemployment can begin to improve. After coming in within that range for 2 weeks in a row, claims printed slightly above the 400k level. A sustained period below 400k would be meaningful for unemployment.

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - Rolling

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - Raw 2

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - NSA chart

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - S P 07 10  2

 

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - Fed and Claims

 

2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread widened 15 bps versus last week to 182 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year bond yield increased 15 bps to 208 bps. 

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - 2 10

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - 2 10 QoQ

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REVERSE - subsector performance

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur

 

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