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The initial claims this morning came in at the highest level since 1992. Despite the fact that a significant increase was heavily anticipated by the market, the reality still has had a shock effect sending stocks down and compressing yields.

If you have been reading our work for any length of time you know that we have expected unemployment to reach 6 to 7% by year end as the pain continues to work through the system. With financial and auto sector layoffs picking up steam we face the real possibility that we will hit the uppedr edge of our range. If we get more signals in coming weeks that the job loss cycle is gaining momentum we may revise and recalibrate our models, but for now we continue to keep our eye on the tape and stick with our process.

Andrew Barber
Director