THE HBM: GMCR, YUM, MCD, DRI, BWLD

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Notes below from CEO Keith McCullough

 

HANG SENG – crashing. Period. Down another -1.7% overnight, down -7.6% since OCT28, and down -24.2% from 2011 peak. Within that nasty Singapore report yest (down -16.2% y/y OCT), Electronics exports were down -31.2%! Apple? I don’t know. But I do know that we’re staying short Hong Kong and Asia’s Growth Slowing.

 

DEAD CATS – across Europe, from the Euro itself (immediate-term TRADE oversold yest) to French and German Equities, they’re bouncing them right from where they should have. New ranges for the Euro, CAC, and DAX = 1.33-1.36, 3003-3146, and 5. Manage your risk proactively around those ranges w/ a bearish bias.

 

GOLD – bouncing right off its immediate-term TRADE line of support of $1722 this morning and I like that because we bought more GLD yesterday taking the position to 9% in the asset allocation model. Refreshed range = 1.

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: GMCR, YUM, MCD, DRI, BWLD - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

GMCR: Green Mountain is making headlines on Bloomberg this morning.  An article on the company highlights September 16th, 2012 as the day that Green Mountain loses the main patents on its single-serve K-Cups.  This has obviously been known for some time but worth noting that it is being pointed out by media outlets.

 

GMCR: Green Mountain can see its shares return to the $60-$70 range over the next few months, according to SunTrust in a report reiterating its Buy rating and $90 PT.

 

YUM: Yum! Brands’ campaign to have laws changed so that low-income Americans using food stamps at its Taco Bell and KFC restaurants has hit a snag.  The USDA has voiced its opposition and encouraged states not to go along with Yum.

 

MCD: McDonald’s has been performing well of late, remains one of our favorite names, and GS bumped its PT for the stock to $103 from $100.

 

 

CASUAL DINING


DRI: Darden Restaurants was cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.  The report cited weakness at Olive Garden.

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings remains a Buy with a $72 PT, according to Sterne Agee, citing strong same-store sales.

 

THE HBM: GMCR, YUM, MCD, DRI, BWLD - stocks 1118

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst