FL: Maintaining the Mo in Q3

 

We expect a solid Q3 out of FL Thursday. Despite the overhang of NBA related headline risk, the already-anemic basketball category actually improved on the margin, and overall industry sales appear to have accelerated throughout the quarter. The latest NPD data which is a component of our (statistically-valid) comp predictive model, supports our above consensus view.

 

We’re at $0.46 for FL on a comp assumption of +7.5% for the quarter headed into Thursday’s print, which is ahead of the Street at $0.39 and +5.3% respectively. We’re increasing our comp assumption to +7.5% from +6% based on stronger sales coming through in October. Through the first two months of the quarter, the Athletic Specialty channel was tracking up +3.1% -- well ahead of the total industry -- which had been tracking up +0.8%. With the Athletic Specialty channel tracking ~200-400bps ahead of aggregate weekly numbers we took up our estimates as October came in closer to up +2% as reflecting in the weekly data.

 

It’s important to note that weekly footwear numbers reflect the broader industry sample and therefore understate the underlying sales performance in the athletic specialty channel that most accurately reflects sales at athletic retailers such as FINL, DKS, HIBB, and FL in particular given its contribution to the sample set. October data out today confirms continued outperformance in the athletic specialty channel, which came in up +4.8% compared to the broader industry up +1.2% right in-line with our expectations.

 

In light of sales coming in stronger at quarter end, we have increased our GM estimates to 160bps over last year driven by +100bps in occupancy leverage and 60bps from merchandise margin, which may prove conservative as well a 5% increase in SG&A to support more active marketing efforts. This equates to EPS of $0.46 for the quarter up from our previous $0.42 estimate and $1.83 for the year vs. consensus at $0.39 and $1.72.

 

While we have been incrementally less bullish on the stock up here north of $22 given the near-term headline risk associated with the pending NBA strike, we expect the stock to maintain its underlying momentum when it reports results Thursday. With the stock currently trading at 12.5x and 11x our F11 and F12 EPS estimates respectively and below its historical average of 13x-15x, we would be looking to get more constructive on any weakness.

 

 

Casey Flavin

Director

FL: Maintaining the Mo in Q3 - FL CompTrack 11 10 11

 

FL: Maintaining the Mo in Q3 - monthly FW growth by brand table

 

FL: Maintaining the Mo in Q3 - Monthly market share by brand

 

FL: Maintaining the Mo in Q3 - sales growth by channel 11 14 11

 

FL: Maintaining the Mo in Q3 - weekly FW Apparel chart 11 14

 


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more