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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 10, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -0.66% downside to 1221 and 1.86% upside to 1252. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

If you were long King Dollar, Long-term Treasuries, and Growth Slowing yesterday, you enjoyed your day – always a bull market somewhere!

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1110

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector performance

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2517 (+1459) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1112.51 (+26.47%)
  • VIX:  +36.16 +8.48 YTD PERFORMANCE: +103.72%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.18 from 1.98 (10.1%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 44.41
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.04 from 1.96    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.81 from 1.73

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index; M/m est. 0.0% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Trade balance; est. -$46.0b (prior -$45.6b)
  • 8:30am: Jobless claims; est. 400k, prior 397k
  • 9am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Washington
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg consumer comfort; est. -51.0, prior -53.2
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
  • 10:40am: Fed’s Evans welcome remarks at Chicago banking conference
  • Noon: Fed’s Bernanke speaks to soldiers in El Paso, Texas
  • 1pm: ECB’s Praet Speaks in Chicago
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b in 30-yr bonds
  • 2pm: Monthly budget statement, est. -102.5b, est. $140.4

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Svenska Cellulosa agrees to buy Georgia-Pacific’s European tissue ops for $1.8b.
  • U.S. trade deficit probably little changed at $46b, economists est.
  • Greek President Papoulias calls meeting with political party leaders for today:
  • U.S. foreclosure filings rose 7% in October to a seven-month high
  • Cisco rating boosted by Deutsche after 1Q EPS, rev. beat est.
  • Deutsche Telekom 3Q Ebitda beat est.
  • Credit Agricole profit trails est. after EU905m Greek writedown
  • The European Commission slashed its euro-region growth forecast for next year by more than half
  • WhaleShark, which distributes online discounts, said to gain funding that values it at as much as $1b
  • PC shipments may fall as much as 3.4% in 4Q following floding in Thailand, IDC says
  • Mitsubishi agreed to pay $5.39b for Anglo American’s Chilean copper unit
  • U.S. Bancorp sued by an Oklahoma police pension fund over mortgage bonds allegations.
  • Italy sells 1-yr bill as 6.087%, most since Sept. 1997

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

  • Copper Drops to Two-Week Low as EU Cuts Euro Growth Forecast
  • Gold Falls for Second Day in New York After Gain in Dollar Value
  • Oil Rises Near Three-Month High on Europe Sentiment, U.S. Supply
  • Solar Glut Worsens as Supply Surge Cuts Prices 93%: Commodities
  • Most Refinery Cuts Since ’80s Can’t Help Profits: Energy Markets
  • Noble Falls Most Since 1998, Bond Risk Doubles as CEO Quits
  • IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast a Third Month on Weaker U.S., Japan
  • Gold ETF Calls Surging Most Since U.S. Stripped of AAA: Options
  • Palm Oil Jumps to 3-Month High as Stockpiles Decline in Malaysia
  • Transocean Risks Junk Grade as Cash Flow Ebbs: Corporate Finance
  • Soybeans, Grains Decline on Concern Euro Crisis May Slow Demand
  • Gold Exchange-Traded Products Attracted $2 Billion in October
  • Indonesian Tin Shipments Gain for First Time in Four Months
  • Copper Declines to Two Week-Low on Europe
  • Brent Oil to Drop After Failing at $116 Peak: Technical Analysis
  • Asia Naphtha Crack Drops; Hin Leong Buys Fuel Oil: Oil Products

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

CURRENCIES

EURO – when our only line of remaining support (TRADE line support of $1.37) snapped yesterday, oh did they snap! Not only is this risk cleanly defined by The Correlation Risk, but a flailing currency perpetuates economic stagflation. European Stagflation is not consensus, yet – but it will be as long as Growth goes negative y/y and these inflation readings continue to accel sequentially.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

ASIA – Growth Slowing continues to be the #1 factor that US centric investors (and European gawkers) have missed all year and will continue to miss if they don’t start modeling the day-to-day risk in both the Asian high-frequency economic data and what it’s embedding itself into Asian stocks/bonds/FX prices. Hang Seng down -5.3% last night and down -21.9% since April (crashing)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director