TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 10, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -0.66% downside to 1221 and 1.86% upside to 1252.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
If you were long King Dollar, Long-term Treasuries, and Growth Slowing yesterday, you enjoyed your day – always a bull market somewhere!
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2517 (+1459)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1112.51 (+26.47%)
- VIX: +36.16 +8.48 YTD PERFORMANCE: +103.72%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.18 from 1.98 (10.1%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 44.41
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.04 from 1.96
- YIELD CURVE: 1.81 from 1.73
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Import Price Index; M/m est. 0.0% (prior 0.3%)
- 8:30am: Trade balance; est. -$46.0b (prior -$45.6b)
- 8:30am: Jobless claims; est. 400k, prior 397k
- 9am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Washington
- 9:45am: Bloomberg consumer comfort; est. -51.0, prior -53.2
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
- 10:40am: Fed’s Evans welcome remarks at Chicago banking conference
- Noon: Fed’s Bernanke speaks to soldiers in El Paso, Texas
- 1pm: ECB’s Praet Speaks in Chicago
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b in 30-yr bonds
- 2pm: Monthly budget statement, est. -102.5b, est. $140.4
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Svenska Cellulosa agrees to buy Georgia-Pacific’s European tissue ops for $1.8b.
- U.S. trade deficit probably little changed at $46b, economists est.
- Greek President Papoulias calls meeting with political party leaders for today:
- U.S. foreclosure filings rose 7% in October to a seven-month high
- Cisco rating boosted by Deutsche after 1Q EPS, rev. beat est.
- Deutsche Telekom 3Q Ebitda beat est.
- Credit Agricole profit trails est. after EU905m Greek writedown
- The European Commission slashed its euro-region growth forecast for next year by more than half
- WhaleShark, which distributes online discounts, said to gain funding that values it at as much as $1b
- PC shipments may fall as much as 3.4% in 4Q following floding in Thailand, IDC says
- Mitsubishi agreed to pay $5.39b for Anglo American’s Chilean copper unit
- U.S. Bancorp sued by an Oklahoma police pension fund over mortgage bonds allegations.
- Italy sells 1-yr bill as 6.087%, most since Sept. 1997
- Copper Drops to Two-Week Low as EU Cuts Euro Growth Forecast
- Gold Falls for Second Day in New York After Gain in Dollar Value
- Oil Rises Near Three-Month High on Europe Sentiment, U.S. Supply
- Solar Glut Worsens as Supply Surge Cuts Prices 93%: Commodities
- Most Refinery Cuts Since ’80s Can’t Help Profits: Energy Markets
- Noble Falls Most Since 1998, Bond Risk Doubles as CEO Quits
- IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast a Third Month on Weaker U.S., Japan
- Gold ETF Calls Surging Most Since U.S. Stripped of AAA: Options
- Palm Oil Jumps to 3-Month High as Stockpiles Decline in Malaysia
- Transocean Risks Junk Grade as Cash Flow Ebbs: Corporate Finance
- Soybeans, Grains Decline on Concern Euro Crisis May Slow Demand
- Gold Exchange-Traded Products Attracted $2 Billion in October
- Indonesian Tin Shipments Gain for First Time in Four Months
- Copper Declines to Two Week-Low on Europe
- Brent Oil to Drop After Failing at $116 Peak: Technical Analysis
- Asia Naphtha Crack Drops; Hin Leong Buys Fuel Oil: Oil Products
EURO – when our only line of remaining support (TRADE line support of $1.37) snapped yesterday, oh did they snap! Not only is this risk cleanly defined by The Correlation Risk, but a flailing currency perpetuates economic stagflation. European Stagflation is not consensus, yet – but it will be as long as Growth goes negative y/y and these inflation readings continue to accel sequentially.
ASIA – Growth Slowing continues to be the #1 factor that US centric investors (and European gawkers) have missed all year and will continue to miss if they don’t start modeling the day-to-day risk in both the Asian high-frequency economic data and what it’s embedding itself into Asian stocks/bonds/FX prices. Hang Seng down -5.3% last night and down -21.9% since April (crashing)
The Hedgeye Macro Team