TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 4, 2011


Get the US Dollar right, you’ll get a lot of other things (beta) right!   As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.80% downside to 1251 and 0.46% upside to 1267. 




THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends 114


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance



  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +1303 (-695) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1002.25 (+4.69%)
  • VIX:  30.50 -6.84% YTD PERFORMANCE: +71.83%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.55 from 2.29 (-32.07%)




TREASURIES: long end of the US treasury yield curve has been yelling that this unemployment report is going to be bad again; stay tuned

  • TED SPREAD: 43.50
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.09 from 2.03    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.85 from 1.80


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30 a.m.: Change in non-farm payrolls, est. 95k, prior 103k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Unemployment rate, est. 9.1%, prior 9.1%
  • 1 p.m.: Fed’s Tarullo speaks in Washington on regulation
  • 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 4:05 p.m.: Fed’s Williams speaks in Santa Clara, Calif.


  • Greek PM George Papandreou’s government faces confidence vote in parliament; referendum canceled
  • G-20 chiefs meeting in Cannes, France, are pushing European authorities to flesh out, enact a week-old rescue plan that has already shown signs of unraveling
  • Basel Committee on Banking Supervision scheduled to release list of so-called global systemically important institutions following G-20 meeting
  • MF Global’s Asian units may be sold as soon as this weekend after liquidators received between 30 and 40 “credible” purchase offers: WSJ




THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view



  • Ex-Credit Suisse Oil Head McKenna Starts Mastic Hedge Fund
  • Gartman Sees Euro Slump Pushing Gold to Record: Chart of the Day
  • RBA Cuts Growth, CPI Forecasts as Europe’s Turmoil Deepens
  • Yingluck Banks on $26 Billion Plan After Flood ‘Stumble’
  • Wheat Plunging as Stockpiles Climb to 10-Year High: Commodities
  • India Economy Faces ‘Critical’ Coal Shortage: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Trades Near Three-Month High as Greece Cancels Referendum
  • Gold Traders More Bullish as Hedge Funds Increase Bets on Gains
  • Stocks, Oil Rise, Treasuries Drop as Greece Moves Toward Bailout
  • Heating Fuel at Record as European Diesel Surges: Energy Markets
  • Chinese Iron Ore Miners Losing Money at Current Prices, UBS Says
  • Copper Gains for Third Day as Greece Near Bailout, ECB Cuts Rate
  • Malaysia’s Export Growth Quickens on Higher Sales of Commodities
  • Thai Rice Exports Seen Plunging on State Buying, Flooding
  • Gold Pares Second Weekly Increase as Investors Lock in Gains
  • Credit Suisse Brazil Unit Said to Shut Agriculture Trading Desk
  • Starbucks Fourth-Quarter Profit Rises 29% as U.S. Sales Gain
  • Abramovich Says He Feared Russia’s Murderous Aluminum Trade
  • Vale Marketing Head Gutemberg Leaves Amid China Price Talks




EURO – we covered at TRADE line support (and sold the USD) on Tuesday at Euro 1.36. Now we can re-short it on the mini-squeeze back up to 1.39-1.40 (and buy the USD back). Just managing risk around a proactively predictable FX range.

Eurozone Producer Prices +5.8% y/y in SEP and set to rip higher again in OCT/NOV as policies to inflate continue


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view




FRANCE – there’s nothing stealth about what either the French stock or bond market continues to tell us – its explicit - France is entering a period of intermediate-term stagflation; this morning’s failure to capture TREND line resistance (3403) combined with a nasty Services PMI print of 44.6 for OCT (vs 46 in SEP) tells us all we need to know to be shorting French stocks on green.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance




CHINA – stealth move higher in Chinese stocks continued overnight as the Shanghai Comp closed up for the 9th day out of the last 10. Heard from large constituencies in the hedge fund community that China (as in the country) was going off a cliff in early October. Hearing crickets now. Our predictive tracking algorithms have Chinese GDP growth bottoming (sequential slowdown) in Q1 of 2012.



THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance






The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more