TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 19, 2011


Another day and another rumor that France and Germany has it all figured out.  We see bigger problems ahead.  As we posted yesterday, “FRANCE IS GOING TO GET DOWNGRADED and we continue to be Short EUR-USD (FXE).  France’s credit rating is going to get downgraded – now the question is when, and what becomes of the EFSF? 


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 43 points or -2.40% downside to 1196 and 1.11% upside to 1239











  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +2074 (+3961) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1085.27 (+19.85%)
  • VIX:  31.56 -5.48% YTD PERFORMANCE: +77.80%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.64 from 2.05 (-20.21%)




  • TED SPREAD: 39.39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.04%
  • 10-Year: 2.19 from 2.18     
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.91 from 1.90


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Consumer Price Index, M/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Rosengren speaks at Boston Fed conference
  • 8:30 a.m.: Housing starts, est. 590k, prior 571k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Building permits, est. 610k, down 2.4%
  • 9 a.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on Latin America in Atlanta
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 2 p.m.: Fed Beige Book
  • 4:30 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on leadership in Atlanta


  • Apple shares drop after missing 4Q sales, EPS est.; Apple says 1Q will be best yet for iPhone sales
  • Consumer prices probably climbed 0.3% in September, smallest gain in three months, economists est. ahead of today’s report
  • UAW ratified proposed contract with Ford, largest UAW-Ford Local 600 in Dearborn said last night
  • President Obama wraps up bus tour of North Carolina, Virginia
  • Day two of Western Republican Leadership Conference in Las Vegas, with Republican presidential candidates among speakers

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION                                             


OIL: gets squeezed right back up to our intermediate-term TREND line of resistance of $89.12 WTIC.  

We shorted shorted OIL yesterday





  • Nespresso Customers Cheat on Clooney in Coffee Wars: Retail
  • Most Accurate China Analyst Sees No Sudden Policy Easing
  • Sugar Shortages Pummel Europe as World Glut Grows: Commodities
  • Maersk Shareholders Suffering With Too Many Containers: Freight
  • Bakken Turns Oasis Into Target as Fracking Costs Slide: Real M&A
  • BNP Paribas Sued by U.S. Over Banker’s Alleged Role in Fraud
  • Oil Trades Near Highest in a Month as Goldman Sees ’Upside Risk’
  • Gold Falls for Third Day as Rescue-Fund Report Limits Demand
  • CFTC Votes 3-2 to Approve Limits on Commodity Speculation
  • Copper Drops for Third Day as Europe’s Crisis May Curb Demand
  • De Beers CEO Says Diamond Prices May ‘Stick’ After 35% Gain
  • Years of Wal-Mart Violations Forced China Action, Official Says
  • Soybean Imports by China May Jump 22%, Noble Group Says
  • Rice May Rally on Thai Floods, State Buying, Sumeth Says
  • Vale May Discuss Iron-Ore Price as Clients Seeks Better Deal
  • Singapore Exchange Iron-Ore Swaps Post Record Daily Volume
  • Oil Trades Near Highest in a Month as Goldman Sees ‘Upside Risk’
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Copper, Oil Fall on Global Growth Concern
  • Wheat Gains a Fourth Day as Cold Weather May Hurt Russian Crop
  • Copper Drops as China, Europe Dim Demand Outlook: LME Preview








EUROPE: continues to see support at the TRADE lines in the DAX, CAC, MIB, etc; people are scared to be short the bazooka, rightfully






ASIA: mixed moves with HK recapturing its TRADE line of 18245 support as China continues to fall (down another -0.25%)








The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director


In preparation for WYNN's 3Q earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.




  • Palo Real Estate Company (owned by Wynn) and Wynn Macau to develop ~51 acres of land on Cotai.  The resort will contain a five-star hotel, gaming areas, retail, entertainment, food and beverage, spa and convention offerings on Cotai.  
  • Palo will pay a land premium of MOP1.55 BN and rental fees of MOP6.17MM to the government.  The first payment towards the land premium will occur in the form of a down payment of MOP500,000,000 (approximately HK$500,000,000 or US$62,500,000) and the balance will be paid in 8 additional semi-annual payments beginning six months from the date the Land Concession Contract is published in the official gazette of Macau.
  • Palo will lease the Cotai Land from the Macau Government for an initial term of 25 years, with the right to renew the contract


YOUTUBE from Q2 earnings call



  • [Wynn Macau margin] “With increasing volumes, the margins are definitely going up, and on the VIP side, with our increasing individual program win, we’re seeing higher margins in VIP. We’re also seeing higher margins in the mass casino as we’re winning more in the mass casino. And it’s really across the board. So the 30% to 32% EBITDA margin for Wynn Macau feels very comfortable for us, we’ve been there for about three quarters in a row now and that’s about what I would expect.”
  • “Basically, it’s the same customer.  We have less equipment on the floor so that’s what’s going to drive up the win per unit….Quarter over quarter, we’re 12% down in equipment and 40% up in win. And the market obviously grew a lot. We just got our fair market share."


  • “July, based upon our expectations, was going to be the worst month of the year. And we were going to experience soft midweek occupancy, and the weekends were going to be better, but July was the black hole. August, as conventions pick up with Magic show and the others around the end of the second week or the second week of the month, then we build momentum and we head into October where we’re sold out at much higher room rates, as you noticed, this year. And so we’ve been surprised in July by a better occupancy than we had thought. But what was surprising about it was that it showed up in the last two or three days, really late bookings this year in July. We’ve been picking up an extra 5 or 6 points of occupancy and in some cases, we went to full occupancy. It surprised us.”
  • [July] “had much higher rate over last year”
  • “October is going to be a dynamite month. We don’t have an inch of convention space that we can still sell.”
  • “Domestically, we’re seeing the same business in ‘11 as we did in 2006 and 2007. The big increase in 2011 has been our international business, because our brand is growing in China, people are recognizing Wynn, so when they travel to America, the place they go to is Wynn. So we’re seeing a much broader market internationally….China represents over 75% of the international mix change.”
  • “I think we have 11 or 12 villas that are being finished next month in the month of August. But we just finished $100 million worth of remodeling and another $100 million of additions and improvements.”
    • “We’ll also have more rooms available because we were doing the remodel in most of ‘10….that’s 400 or 500 rooms here.”
    • “So for 2012, we’re tracking on pace with where we were in 2011 for room nights. We’re obviously pushing a little rate. But we think it will be a good convention year in 2012….upside would be from price.”


  • “If we were ever given the chance to be in business in Singapore, we’d be thrilled and delighted to bring our best work there.”
  • “Wynn Resorts has debt of zero, and has had a debt of zero for several years. And we intend to keep it at zero. We have all the capacity to do any deal we want. See, by having a lot of cash in the parent, we can go to a new jurisdiction, infuse a subsidiary with a prudent amount of equity, make an intelligent loan that has got a reasonable ratio to the project cost, have low interest rate with long maturity, so we don’t get in the kind of trouble that our neighbors up the street have gotten into trouble on a couple of occasions.”

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Putting China into Perspective

Conclusion: In the note below, we attempt to quantify and contextualize Chinese economic growth scenarios over both the intermediate and long term. Needless to say, a structural downshift in rates of Chinese economic growth is not at all out of the band of probable outcomes over the long term and this has major implications for a great many corporations and investor portfolios worldwide.


In the near-manic construct that has become financial analysis, it helps to have a little context. Specifically, we think it’s worth reminding that Chinese growth has been slowing for the larger part of the past two years and the consensus freak-out you’re seeing/hearing about Chinese economic growth is largely overdone. We do, however, agree with the Chinese equity market and the price of copper that the -280bps (-23.5%) slowdown in China’s YoY Real GDP growth rate from the 1Q10 cyclical peak remains a headwind to global growth.


Putting China into Perspective - 1


For reference, if the U.S. had slowed by a comparable amount from its 2010 cycle peak, our domestic Real GDP growth would be only +0.7% YoY (down from the latest reading of +1.6% YoY).


Putting China into Perspective - 2


Speaking of the market, Chinese equities, which are down for the second straight year and have fallen -27.3% since the start of 2010, have been discounting this deceleration in growth for quite some time now. Given, we don’t think it pays to use today’s GDP print as an opportunity to jump on the “Chinese GDP is getting halved bandwagon” (which is expected to happen within the next year by 12% of the respondents in the latest Bloomberg Global Poll of Investors).


That said, however, we continue to believe that bottoms are processes – not points – and China is no different than anything else in the price discovery matrix. In our opinion, valuation remains no catalyst here until inflection points in each of our three core factors (growth, inflation, and monetary/fiscal policy) are within reach. The rub, as always, will be in determining what is within reach (catalysts becoming supportive) vs. what is priced in (consensus sentiment presenting an asymmetric opportunity).


Quantitatively speaking, our models are currently pointing to a 1Q12 bottom in Chinese real economic growth in the mid-to-high 8% range (pending more data, of course). That doesn’t seem so bad from current levels, but it’s an enormous delta from the pre-crisis peak quarterly growth rate of +14% YoY registered in 1Q07 (down nearly -40%, to be exact).


Putting China into Perspective - 3


Keeping that in perspective, we argue that consensus has been having a “big boy talk” with China pertaining to the sustainability of its current economic growth model of investing in what are widely rumored to be largely unproductive property assets and transportation infrastructure. Fixed asset investment now accounts for 69.3% of Chinese nominal GDP – up +2,870bps/+70.1% from the 40.6% ratio recorded just eight years ago! As of 2010, gross domestic capital formation contributed nearly half of all of China’s economic growth (48.6%) – 1,360bps higher than India, which we’d argue is a comparable country in both size and economic development. Additionally, at nearly half of GDP, modern-day China is more levered to gross domestic capital formation as a means of economic growth more so than Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, and Hong Kong were in the years leading up to the 1997-98 Asian Financial crisis.


Putting China into Perspective - 4


Putting China into Perspective - 5


Putting China into Perspective - 6


Given the long-term headwinds facing both China’s property market and banking sector (which we have quantified in recent notes; email us for copies), it’s likely that the peak in these ratios is in the rear-view or within reach. 


Whether China will be able to gracefully rebalance its economy towards a more consumer-driven growth model in the process – as outlined in the current 5yr plan which calls for only +7% economic growth rates – will go a long way towards determining the slope of global economic growth over the long-term TAIL – particularly given the debt, deleveraging, demographics, property market, and structural unemployment headwinds facing the U.S. and parts of the E.U. Obviously this has major implications for a great many corporations and investor portfolios worldwide.


Indeed, that is a TAIL risk worth pondering for any long-term investor. As the law of large numbers reminds us, as China continues to grow larger (now the world’s second-largest single-nation economy), a structural downshift in rates of Chinese economic growth is not at all out of the band of probable outcomes over the long term.


Darius Dale


France Is Going To Get Downgraded

Positions in Europe: Short EUR-USD (FXE)

France’s credit rating is going to get downgradednow the question is when, and what becomes of the EFSF? The three main ratings agencies (Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch) are classic lagging indicators, however Moody’s announcement to downgrade France’s AAA credit outlook from stable to negative is having significant follow-through market implications.  In the charts below we show the spread between German bunds and 10YR French bond yields, which is hitting an all-time wide (since the Euro was introduced) of 110bps today. Additionally, French CDS is trending up and to the right (currently at 193bps) and the French 10YR bond yield has gained 57bps in October alone.


France Is Going To Get Downgraded - 1. mhh


France Is Going To Get Downgraded - 2. mhh


The rise in yields and risk increases France’s debt servicing costs at a juncture in which its outstanding sovereign debt is elevated and its banks look to require more funding.  On the French sovereign side, €122 Billion in debt (Principal and Interest) is due into year-end and €259 Billion will be due in 2012 on a €1.9 Trillion economy. That compares to year-end maturing debt figures of €64 Billion in Germany (on a €2.5 Trillion economy) and Italy at €68B on a €1.6 Trillion economy.


On the banking side, the European Banking Authority is considering increasing the core Tier 1 capital ratio level to 9% in a third round of tests (from 5%). If this is the case, Credit Suisse estimates that France’s four largest banks will need to raise €43 Billion, or 2.2% of France’s GDP. If state recapitalization was mandated this would likely push France’s 2011 estimated Debt as a % of GDP to 88.4% from 86.2%, and add to that the upward pressures from the government’s guarantees of Dexia’s losses.   As Reinhart and Rogoff outline in their book “This Time is Different” a 90% level of debt (as a % of GDP) is prohibitive to economic expansion. In our work in conjunction with our Financials Team we’ve also shown the exposure risks of European banks to the PIIGS. As it relates to French banks, we’ve noted in particular BNP Paribas’ massive Core Tier 1 capital exposure to sovereign debt and commercial loans of 194%.


France Is Going To Get Downgraded - 3. mhh


Politically, Sarkozy continues to lose support, as high unemployment, at 9.2%, or 22.8% among youth, create dissent and the country remains more hostage to domestic demand (unlike Germany) to grow.


Should a ratings agency cut France’s credit rating, which we think is highly probably—although we wouldn’t rule out Eurocrat measures to prevent such a move (through influence) or to act to create its own ratings agency—it would throw a wrench into the EFSF, 20% of the collateral for which France is on the hook for, the second largest contributor behind Germany at 27%. Essentially, the EFSF would be back at square one with the likely outcome that the ECB would be forced to take on a big role to bailout/provide the bazooka for Europe.


Europe’s sovereign and banking crisis seems to live one day at a time. However, we hope you can get ahead of the risk that France’s credit rating deteriorates from here.


Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


McCarran Airport posted a 9% increase in traffic.



Assuming normal slot and table hold percentages, we are projecting a 6-8% year over year increase in total Strip gaming revenue in September.  The big driver should be table drop which could be up 20% over last year.  Hold percentages in September of 2010 were slightly higher than normal on both tables and slots so that is somewhat of an inhibiting factor.  However, given the weak numbers of July and August, high single-digit growth in September should be favorably received.  We would note that hold percentages can swing wildly from month to month, particularly on the tables – especially Baccarat.  However, volumes should show a nice uptick.


Here are our September Strip projections:



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