THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 30, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 64 points or -3.83% downside to 1116 and 1.60% upside to 1179.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
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EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1295 (+3374)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1120.96 (+6.86%)
- VIX: 38.84 -5.45% YTD PERFORMANCE: +118.82%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.20 from 2.45 (-10.19%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 36.70
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
- 10-Year: 1.99 from 2.03
- YIELD CURVE: 1.72 from 1.76
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30 a.m.: USDA Quarterly
- 8:30 a.m.: Personal income, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 a.m.: Personal spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
- 9:45 a.m.: Chicago Purchasing, est. 55.0, prior 56.5
- 9:55 a.m.: UMich Confidence, Sept. F, est. 57.8, prior 57.8
- 10 a.m.: NAPM-Milwaukee, est. 57.2, est. 58.3
- 11 a.m.: Fed’s Bullard to speak in San Diego
- 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes rig count
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Italy softens blow of falling government bond prices for insurers - FT
- Alderney Gambling Control Commission pulls Full Tilt Poker's gambling license - WSJ
- Strategic bidders look like current favorites in EMI auction - Billboard
- FAA to propose higher minimum-experience standard for co-pilots - WSJ
- Workers at Chrysler's Global Engine Manufacturing Alliance plant approve joining with UAW contract - WSJ
- Global investors say Operation Twist will fail to reduce unemployment as the U.S. economy slows: Bloomberg poll
- September quarter ends: Watch for portfolio shuffling as fund managers adjust holdings
- Strategic bidders look like current favorites in EMI auction - Billboard
- Invesco, Square Mile Capital, Canyon combine to acquire $880M loan portfolio from BAC
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Copper Rout Outpaces Analysts Focused on Shortages: Commodities
- Gold Gains as Rout Spurs Purchases, Central Banks Boost Reserves
- Korea Shipyards’ LNG Skill Beats China Bulk Focus: Freight
- Diesel Rally on Shell Fire Set to End on Formosa: Energy Markets
- Oil Gains in New York; Set for Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2008
- Copper Gains, Paring Biggest Quarterly Decline Since 2008
- Commodities Pare Quarterly Drop on German Vote, U.S. Outlook
- Zinc Output May Rise in Japan to Meet Post-Quake Demand
- Rare Earths Fall as Toyota Develops Alternatives: Commodities
- Thailand, Bolivia, Tajikistan Boost Gold Reserves in August
- SGX, LSE in Joint Bid for London Metal Exchange, Reuters Says
- Oil Heads for Biggest Quarterly Decline in New York Since 2008
- Fifty-Year Drop in Asian Monsoons Linked to Fossil-Fuel Use
- Farm Subsidies May Face Supercommittee Cuts Amid Record Profits
- Gold May Gain as Price-Rout Spurs Physical Demand, Survey Shows
- Sugar May Decline on Large Crops in Europe, Asia, Survey Shows
- Crude Oil Rises on U.S. Economy, German Passage of Bailout Bill
- Chaoda Chairman, Fidelity Manager Accused of Insider Trading
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- Eurozone August unemployment +10.0% vs consensus +10.0% and prior +10.0%
- Eurozone Sep CPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior +2.5%
- Germany August retail sales -2.9% MoM; +2.2% y/y vs consensus (0.6%) and prior revised to (1.8%) from (1.6%)
- France August consumer spending +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior (1.60%)
- France July producer prices +0.5% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior (0.3%)
ASIAN MARKETS
- Japan August core CPI +0.2% y/y vs cons +0.1%. Jobless rate 4.3% vs cons 4.7%.
- Preliminary industrial output +0.8% m/m vs cons +1.5%.
- September manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs 51.9 seq.
- Tokyo September core CPI (0.1%) y/y, matching expectations.
- HSBC China September PMI 49.9 vs preliminary 49.4, month-ago 49.9.
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director
