THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 21, 2011

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or -1.17% downside to 1188 and 2.24% upside to 1229.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 921

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -814 (+833) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 926.25 (+1.97%)
  • VIX:  32.86 -0.40% YTD PERFORMANCE: +85.13%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.91 from 2.33 (-17.87%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

FIXED INCOME: UST Yields look like they want to make higher-lows on whatever Twizzler move Bernanke tries (or no move at all) this afternoon.

  • TED SPREAD: 35.05
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 1.95 from 1.97     
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.77 from 1.81

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications
  • 10 a.m.: Existing home sales, est. 4.75m (up 1.7% M/m)
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 2:15 p.m.: FOMC rate decision 

 

 WHAT TO WATCH:

  • FOMC may decide to replace short-term Treasuries in its $1.65t portfolio with long-term bonds; Jefferies estimates $300b-sized action for “Operation Twist”
  • European officials to return to Greece next week to complete review of economy; Greece to hold Cabinet meeting to discuss accelerating budget cuts
  • SABMiller reached deal to buy Foster’s for A$5.10-shr
  • Google faces Senate panel today on the “Power of Google”
  • PepsiCo reaffirms 2011 guidance, forms global snacks group
  • FDA briefing docs due for 9/23 advisory panel on Miltenyi Biotec’s CliniMACS CD34 Selection System
  • Boeing is on schedule to deliver first 787 next week, CEO McNerney said at forum: WSJ
  • Obama addresses U.N. General Assembly as Palestinians prepare to seek full membership at the Security Council and the U.S. promises a veto

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

COMMODITIES: Gold fails (again) at the Hedgeye TRADE line of resistance ($1820).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Bullion Vaults Run Out of Space as Gold Rallies: Commodities
  • PepsiCo Poised for 49% Gain Imitating Kraft Breakup: Real M&A
  • Wild West Comes to India Where Miners Defy Supreme Court Rule
  • Lynas Slumps Most in Two Years on Rare Earths Price Drop
  • Corn May Reach Record on Supply ‘Nervousness,’ Newedge Says
  • Oil Drops in New York on Bets of Lower Demand, Higher Supplies
  • BHP Says Global Imbalances, High Debt Creating Uncertainty
  • Gold May Gain for Second Day on Growth Concerns, Fed Speculation
  • European Naphtha Exports Sinking to Year’s Low: Energy Markets
  • Rice to Drop as Indian Exports Intensify Export Competition
  • Parrilla Hires Ex-CastleBay Manager for Commodity Hedge Fund
  • Copper Climbs in New York on Speculation Fed Will Support Growth
  • Copper Imports by China Climb for Third Month on Low Stocks
  • Wheat Advances for a Second Day on Unfavorable Crop Conditions
  • Global Sugar Market Will Be in Surplus in 2011-2012, Licht Says
  • Copper Rises in London as Fed Meets to Boost Growth: LME Preview

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

EUROPE: down, but not the disaster the shorts need here to keep getting paid (Italy is up small this morn and DAX sitting on TRADE line)

 

GERMANY: at 5514 DAX is still in crash mode (down -27% from May), but up +10% from the Sept12 capitulation low

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

ASIA: bottoming process in the KOSPI (Korea) could be in motion w/ a TRADE line breakout back above the critical 1813 line; China up +2.7%

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director