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REGIONALS: SHOW ME THE GROWTH, MO

Preliminary gaming revenues from one of the riverboat markets shows that August may be another soft month for domestic gaming.

According to unofficial data, we believe Missouri gaming revenues, adjusted for the closing of St. Jo Frontier Casino, dropped 1% YoY in August—another disappointing month for the “Show-Me” state.   On a sequential revenue basis, Missouri came in 5% light.  We look at monthly sequential revenue based on the previous 3 months, adjusted by a historical seasonality factor. 

We won’t get the property details until later this week but we wonder if PNK’s Lumiere and River City properties, which outperformed in July in part to high table hold and easy comps, can continue to show solid growth in a poor macro environment.  Obviously, ASCA maintains the highest exposure to Missouri but we don’t think Missouri will be the only regional market to disappoint.

Other riverboat markets may be better, or worse, than Missouri but we want to stress that all riverboats (on a same-store basis), except Louisiana, showed slowing sequential revenue in July.  We have been cautious on regional gaming post Q2 and a weak August would corroborate our bearish stance.