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Refreshing our S&P500 Levels: The Fear Centers Aren't Done Yet...

Some people don't respect that their brain's amygdala (fear center) generally dominates their reward center. We respect neuroscience. We respect math. We let our models show us tail risk rather than letting our emotions govern portfolio decision making.

Our models refresh every 90 minutes of trading. Here are our new S&P Levels for 11am EST:

Buy "Trade" = 823
Sell "Trade" = 913

Don't allow David Faber at CNBC or your fear center dominate your thinking. Faber is right about Morgan Stanley's liquidity concerns, but he is 3 hours behind us on that call.



Our guys in Macau have put on their construction helmets and safety glasses. Some interesting observations as follows:

• LVS stopped construction on 2 of the 4 towers on Lots 5 and 6.
• Construction remains on the Sheraton and St. Regis towers. We continue to believe construction will pause on these 2 towers as well after they skin the building.
• Shrangi-La and Traders postponed indefinitely and immediately
• Construction of two Cirque theaters on Lots 5 and 6 have been cancelled. The Cirque production teams have been sent home. The Cirque du Soleil show at The Venetian remains intact.
• MPEL’s City of Dreams has moved to a 3 phase opening from a 2 phase opening. Surprisingly, the opening of Phase 1 has been moved up to March 2009. It is our understanding that Phase 1 will include the casino floor and Crown Tower

We’ve been predicting the construction delays on Lots 5 and 6 for some time but incrementally the news is probably a positive for LVS and the Macau market. Less Capex means more cash flow near term. Regarding MPEL, for the City of Dreams to begin generating cash flow sooner is also a positive.

Charting Japan: Plain Ugly...

Oh what a wonderful difference a year makes... from all of the story telling of the resurgence of the land of the rising sun, to "Japanese Activism", did we ever have a chuckle with Wall Street's creativity. Then we shorted them and Japan. Now the stock market is almost -60% lower, and we have the 1st negative Japanese retail sales growth report (year over year) since July of 2007 (see chart). Are you thinking this is a one-time event, or will this manifest into its negative 25 year "Trend" of Japanese economic malaise? For now, we have locked in our gains on the short side of the EWJ etf, but we will be back, re-shorting the story tellers... patience always pays…
  • The Nikkei should be covered, for a "Trade", anywhere under the 7,127 line.
Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

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WYNN announced it will open the Encore hotel in Las Vegas on 1/12/08. We had predicted the property would not make its expected December open date in our 8/12/08 note "GOOD ENCORE, BAD ENCORE". The obvious negative here is that Wynn Encore Las Vegas will miss out on the very lucrative New Year's celebration week. Not a huge deal in it of itself provided that the budget of $2.3bn remains intact.

On the contrary, we still believe Encore Macau may open on the early side of its announced range of first half of 2010. The budget there of $700 million looks very doable.


What I care about is:

• Debt at $2.6bn, below estimates
• Shouldn’t bust a covenant in Q4
• Leverage restriction escalates from 6x to 6.5x in 2009 so out of danger zone
• I’m way below the Street on EBITDA and EPS yet I’m still calculating net free cash flow of $1.60 (40% FCF yield) in 2009

My sources indicate October is better in regional gaming markets than September. September could end up being a near term low. Trade looks higher.

UA: Better Than An $18 Stock Needed

Beat and guide down. Familiar story… There are puts and takes to this Q for UA, but there’s no doubt in my mind that they net out to be a positive result. Here’s the simple overview…

1) Revs +24% -- 400bp better than I expected (which was about in line w the Street). Footwear appears to be the biggest driver, which is not a shocker. Kids posted a sharp deceleration on both a 1 and 2-year basis, which the company will need to explain on the call. Not huge to the P&L, but bit signal of brand relevance.

2) Gross Margin +41bp. I’m very impressed that UA pulled this off. I had the GM improvement a full quarter out in model once inventory was completely cleared. But with sales +24% and inventory only +8%, the GM math is less of a surprise.

3) SG&A: A highly discretionary line for this company on a Q to Q basis. UA guided to 11.5% and came in at 10.7%, which is a $2mm delta, or about $0.03-$0.04 per share. While I’ll want color on this (perhaps just due to revenue beat/pull forward), nothing about the trend on a standalone basis concerns me.

4) Cash Cycle: 19 day improvement in inventories, 3 day reduction in DSOs, but giving back 18 days in lower payables?? This is likely driven by footwear, where factories are more consolidated and terms are tighter than in dealing with the fragmented apparel factories (i.e. there are about 30 factory groups worldwide that make footwear, but about 20,000 apparel groups).

5) Visibility? Over each of the last two quarters, the company has guided to a very tight FY operating profit target ($103.5M-$104.5M in Q2 to $104.5M-$105.5M in Q3). The outlook for the remainder of 2008 guides to a much wider range of $97.5M-$104.5 implying more uncertainty over Q4 profitability.

Netting it all out, with all the negativity on the name heading into the quarter, I’ve gotta think that the stock rips on a result like this in conjunction with a big market day. It should. UA remains in my top 5.

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