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Expectations are for a miss and we would have to agree.  With sentiment where it is, there may not be much of a reaction.

We expect that Genting Singapore will miss the mark on both revenues and EBITDA when they report their 2Q results on August 12th.  MBS likely gained significant share in Q2.  Here is the detail.

2Q Detail

We estimate that Genting will report net revenue of S$737MM and EBITDA of S$368MM.

  • S$615MM of gaming revenue, net of rebates and Goods & Services Tax
    • We estimate that total market Gross Gaming Revenues (GGR) will be down QoQ and that RWS market share slipped significantly in the quarter.  In 1Q11, RWS market share benefited from high hold, which makes this quarter’s comparison difficult out of the box.
    • Slot win of S$132MM
      • Slot handle of S$1.9BN (39% market share) and average win per day of S$1k
  • Mass win of S$224MM down 25% QoQ due to 12% QoQ decline in drop and a difficult sequential hold comparison.
    • Drop of S$1,226MM (47% market share – in-line with the last 2 quarters) – mass drop has been fairly stagnant since 2Q10 when MBS opened.
    • Hold of 18.3%
  • VIP gross win of S$574MM and net win of S$282MM
    • RC volume of S$20.1BN (57% market share vs 59% in 1Q11; up 22% YoY)
    • 2.85% hold
    • 1.35% rebate rate
    • $121.5MM of non-gaming revenue, up 11% QoQ
      • S$27MM of room revenue and F&B  and other equal to 100% of room revenue
        • RevPAR: S$231
  • USS revenue of S$67MM
    • 8.5k daily visitors
    • S$86.5 spend per visitor
    • S$370MM of total operating expenses compared to S$376MM in 1Q11
      • S$80M of gaming taxes – down S$16MM sequentially
      • S$289MM of fixed and other expenses compared to S$280MM in 1Q11