BYD Q3 TAKEWAYS

What I care about is:


• Debt at $2.6bn, below estimates
• Shouldn’t bust a covenant in Q4
• Leverage restriction escalates from 6x to 6.5x in 2009 so out of danger zone
• I’m way below the Street on EBITDA and EPS yet I’m still calculating net free cash flow of $1.60 (40% FCF yield) in 2009


My sources indicate October is better in regional gaming markets than September. September could end up being a near term low. Trade looks higher.