A look at last week’s price action in commodities most relevant to the restaurant industry.


Last week saw positive price action in most of the commodities we include in our commodity monitor as the dollar moved lower and much of the supply and demand data points were supportive of higher prices.  Corn moving higher is the most important call out for the restaurant industry as it likely points to higher protein costs as feed prices increase.  The ongoing drought in Texas continue to pressure corn, dairy and protein costs.  Cheese paused over the last week, trading slightly down as some of the commentary out of management teams this week seemed to point to sustained dairy inflation in the back half of the year. 







Coffee prices gained 1.5% week-over-week and rose today in London for the fourth day in a row, the longest winning streak since June, on concern that supplies may be limited as Vietnamese exporters delay shipments, according to Bloomberg.  Vietnam is the largest robusta grower and a lack of beans has caused shippers there to postpone or cancel as much as 60,000 metric tons of exports in the past two months.  Arabica prices in New York also declined for the fourth consecutive day as top producer Brazil delayed sales because of lower prices.  Arabica prices declined 9.8% in June as supply worries eased.





Below is a selection of comments from management teams pertaining to coffee prices from recent earnings calls.


PEET (8/2/11): “As we indicated, in our first quarter call, we had to buy a small amount of our calendar 2011 coffee beans at significantly higher prices and this coffee will roll into our P&L during the third and fourth quarter.”


“Higher priced coffee resulted in gross margins this quarter being 290 basis points below prior year. In our first quarter conference call, we indicated that in addition to the overall higher price coffee market, we had to buy a small amount of coffee this year at significantly higher prices. And as a result, we expected our coffee cost to be 40% higher in fiscal 2011.”


HEDGEYE:  Peet’s is a company with a very competent management team that manages coffee costs extremely well.  Its higher-end, loyal customer base makes the price elasticity of demand more inelastic than for other coffee concepts’ products.



SBUX (7/28/11):  “As I mentioned earlier, are absolutely a headwind for us in the full business and that's most acutely impactful on margins in CPG as it's a much more coffee intensive cost structure, as you know. I can tell you that the decline as I spoke about it earlier from about 30% operating margin in CPG this year down to the target 25% next year is really all explained by commodities. Absent commodity inflation we'd be at or improving our margin in the coming year.”


“As we had anticipated, in recent weeks, coffee prices have retreated significantly from a high of more than $3 per pound just a couple of months ago to levels now near $2.40 per pound. As prices have been falling we continue locking up our needs for fiscal '12 and now have virtually the full year price protected.” 


HEDGEYE: Starbucks is aligning itself with the right partners to gain more control of its coffee costs to provide investors with more certainty going forward and to protect its margins as global coffee demand continues to rise.



GMCR (7/27/2011): “However, what we've said is that should coffee prices or other material costs spike, we will certainly consider price increases as necessary. We certainly hope that we do not have to cover one again next year. But our objective long-term is attempting to maintain our gross margin as we would see input costs come along.”


HEDGEYE:  GMCR hedges out 6-9 months in advance.  Without a rising dollar and some stronger supply growth to counteract growing global demand, we expect sustained elevated prices.



Live Cattle


Beef costs gained 1.5% week-over-week as hot and dry conditions continue to strangle Texas farmers.  Farmers in the Lone Star State are beginning to turn water off in cotton crops and abandoning parts, or whole fields, of corn.  More than 99% of the state was in one level of drought or another by the last week of July.  Cattle feeding margins dropped further last week as cattle prices held steady at slightly over $108 per hundredweight, according to  Average feedyard closeouts now show losses exceeding $128 per head on cattle marketed last week.





Below is a selection of comments from management teams pertaining to beef prices from recent earnings calls.


RRGB (5/20/11): “Ground beef could be higher by as much as 20% year-over-year, which has a meaningful negative impact to our margins.” 


HEDGEYE: Live cattle prices are up +22.7% y/y.  See the price chart above.



JACK (5/19/11): Beef accounts for more than 20% of our spend and is the biggest factor driving the change in our guidance. For the full year, we are now anticipating beef cost to be up nearly 14% versus our previous expectation of 9% inflation. We expect beef cost to be up approximately 14% to 15% in the third quarter.


HEDGEYE: Live cattle prices are up +22.7% y/y.  See the price chart above.



WEN (5/10/11): We communicated to you back in March that we expected beef cost to rise approximately 10% to 15% and that we expected our total commodity costs to rise 2% to 3% in 2011. We are now forecasting that our beef cost will rise 20%.


HEDGEYE: There is moderate upside risk to beef price guidance for WEN.



EAT (4/27/11):  Well, consistent with what we've talked about in the last month or so as we visited many of you, beef continues to present the most significant inflationary pressure in our commodity basket.



MRT (5/4/11): Q: I wanted to revisit the overall expectations for your commodities basket, and I missed the part about beef, just wanted to verify that it was up in the 20% range.  A: no, no, no.  I said in the low double-digits. 


HEDGEYE: This is possible, even probable, for the year looking at average 2010 versus average YTD 2011 prices, and given the easier compares in the fourth quarter, but will require no sustained upturns from here.





Corn continues to be a concern for companies with exposure. The abandonment of corn crops in Texas due to the continuing drought is likely to support price in the immediate to intermediate term. 





Below is a selection of comments from management teams pertaining to beef prices from recent earnings calls.


AFCE (5/26/11):  On a full year basis, we now expect the Popeye’s system will experience an increase of 4% to 5% in food costs. This is up from our previous guidance of a 2% to 3% increase, primarily due to higher commodity costs in corn and soy, which impacts our bone-in chicken, as well as increases in the cost of flour and cooking oil.


HEDGEYE: Corn costs going higher are going to squeeze margins for food processors and, in turn, their clients.




Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green







Solid End To July for Sports Apparel

Solid end to the month for Sports Apparel, with a big sequential acceleration for the week ending 7/31. Sales rate nearly doubled, with strong ASPs as well. Nearly every brand participated (except Columbia). Another good sign headed into tomorrow. With valuations where they are – the retail space needs all the good news it can get.


Solid End To July for Sports Apparel - chart1


Solid End To July for Sports Apparel - chart2


Solid End To July for Sports Apparel - chart 3


Solid End To July for Sports Apparel - chart4


Solid End To July for Sports Apparel - chart5


I was not allowed to ask a question on the conference call, yet I heard the tone that acknowledges I was in the queue.  I will try again next quarter.


Dear Mr. Travis,


Congratulations on the successful IPO of your company Dunkin’ Brands.  I know the process can be long and taxing answering what seems to be the same questions over and over again.


I wanted to take a moment to introduce myself and my firm.  I have been a sell-side analyst on Wall Street since 1990 and over the years have covered Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Restaurants and selected small cap companies.  For what it is worth, I have been ranked #1 by the WSJ and Intuitional Investor in multiple categories. 


My firm, Hedgeye Risk management ( features some of Wall Street’s best regarded research analysts - united around a vision of independent, un-compromised real-time investment research as a service. Our research teams have buy-side experience, which adds uniqueness in our approach to delivering value-added research, insights and ideas to our clients.


Maybe there was a technical problem, but for some reason I was not able to ask a question on your conference call.  As part of my research process, I don’t feel the need to ask questions on every company’s earnings call but this was my one chance to get a few questions answered since I was not involved in the road show process. 


In addition, I have reached out, on several occasions, to the company through your IR department and did not get any response.  I assume that is also because of the SEC regulations regarding “quiet periods.”


Today’s conference call was helpful but I have some questions that have not been answered.  In particular, I’m focused on the future growth model and a few other issues.

  1. Can you talk about how the system developed in New England (i.e. who was responsible for building  the CML’s)
  2. How important are the CML’s to the franchise economics?
  3. How many stores does a CML support?
  4. Do you need more CML’s in the East to support future growth?
  5. How many CML’s are west of the Mississippi?
  6. If you build a CML west of the Mississippi, who will fund the building of the facility?
  7. What types of incentives are you offering to franchisees in the Greenfield markets?

Depending on how the previous questions are answered and looking at the data from the S-1, it appears the future growth west of the Mississippi will incorporate a different growth model from that which made the company so successful in the New York and New England. 


As you have said in the S-1, ‘in newer markets, Dunkin’ Donuts brand restaurants rely on donuts and bakery goods that are finished in restaurants. We believe that this “just baked on demand” donut manufacturing platform enables the Dunkin’ Donuts brand to more efficiently expand its restaurant base in newer markets where franchisees may not have access to a CML.’


What market can you point to where the “just baked on demand” model has worked successfully and for how long?


To date, the company expansion plans west of the Mississippi have been less than successful.  There was some big fanfare in the Minneapolis market a few years ago that has not panned out.  In addition, Phoenix and Las Vegas markets might even be called “franchising failures.” 


I’m looking to better understand the growth model and the implications on the company’s earnings and returns.  As you said on the conference call, a move to open more stores in Germany and Russia would help to improve average unit volumes in The Dunkin international division.  Isn’t the opposite true for the USA?  The more stores you open away from the core market in NY and New England will lower the average unit volumes in the USA?


If DNKN is truly in a growth mode, the returns on the new incremental growth will be the key metric that sustains the company current valuation and investor’s long-term support for the current business plan.


I have other unanswered questions but I guess they will have to wait.


Again, congratulations on the successful IPO.




Howard W. Penney



Howard Penney

Managing Director



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European Round-Up: PMI Services Fall; Swiss Rate Cut; EUR-USD Levels

Positions in Europe: Short EUR-USD (FXE); EU Financials (EUFN); Covered Italy (EWI) and UK (EWU) on 8/1


Eurozone PMI Services Fall

In line with our call for growth slowing across Europe, Eurozone Services PMI for the month of July came in lower, confirming a downward trend over the last 3-4 months that we also saw with July Manufacturing PMI figures (see chart below). With the 50 line marking expansion (above the line) and contraction (below), Manufacturing across Europe has taken a larger hit than Services over the intermediate term, and the results show that even Europe’s economic stalwarts were not immune to the downtrend: German and French Services fell to 52.9 and 54.2, respectively.


While Italy improved month-over-month to 48.6, the country remains grounded under the 50 line; risks to Italy’s economy remain its (in)ability to finance its sovereign debt; its banking industry’s leverage to the periphery; and political indecision (including the terms of its austerity package) of the Berlusconi government. We covered our position in Italy via the etf EWI on 8/1 for a +7% gain. We continue to believe that the region’s sovereign debt contagion will remain a significant drag on consumer and business optimism and impair growth into year-end across much of the region.


European Round-Up: PMI Services Fall; Swiss Rate Cut; EUR-USD Levels - 1. PMI Services



Shifty Swissy

Today the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut the 3M Libor Target Rate to 0.00% from 0.25% (a level it had been at since March 2009) and said it will "significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market, including by expand banks' sight deposits at the SNB from currently around 30 billion CHF ($39.35 billion) to 80 billion CHF." 


Unknown is the extent to which the SNB sells the CHF from its reserves. 2009 and 2010 showed that the SNB’s intervention was largely unsuccessful in depreciating the CHF against major currencies, and we think this time around is no different.  Today’s cut did push the CHF down against major currencies in the intraday morning session by 1-3%, however we think that CHF strength will resume as a safe haven from the volatility in the Eurozone and its common currency over the intermediate term.


For reference, over the last 3 months, the CHF-EUR is up +14% and the CHF-USD pair gained +11%. As we show in the chart below, over a three year period, the CHF-EUR is up +49% and CHF-USD has gained +37%!  Sooner or later this strong CHF vs the EUR and USD will erode exports. While we’ve yet to see this ytd, it’s a risk that must be weighing on SNB President Philipp Hildebrand in today’s move. Unfortunately, given the larger macro forces in the region, we think Hildebrand and the bank are largely handcuffed to use monetary policy as a tool to influence the direction of the CHF.


European Round-Up: PMI Services Fall; Swiss Rate Cut; EUR-USD Levels - 1. CHF



Levels on EUR-USD

The EUR-USD has whipped around in the last weeks on the US debt ceiling debate. We continue to highlight that the EUR-USD will see immediate term support in a band of 1.41- $1.45 as EU officials support the region’s fiscal imbalances with bailout band-aids at every step.  However, should we break through our intermediate term TREND level of $1.43 and immediate term TRADE support level of $1.41, we see long term TAIL support all the way down at $1.28, or -9.2% from $1.41.  Be aware of this quantitative set-up as sovereign debt contagion risk looms with the larger players of Italy and Spain moving to the forefront. 


European Round-Up: PMI Services Fall; Swiss Rate Cut; EUR-USD Levels - 1.EUR USD


Matthew Hedrick



PNK lit it up again. It gets more difficult from here on out.



"Pinnacle's healthy second quarter results, including a 510 basis point improvement in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin, reflect the significant improvements we are driving throughout the organization.  Through operating efficiencies, industry-unique revenue growth strategies, and a focused commitment to offer quality entertainment experiences and enhanced guest relationships, we continue to strengthen Pinnacle's competitive position"


- Anthony Sanfilippo, president and chief executive officer of Pinnacle Entertainment. 



  • "The property level improvements and lower corporate expense contributed to an improvement in Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin"
  • "While still early, the mychoice program is off to a very solid start and contributed to our strong second quarter results.  We believe this innovative program will drive further progress over the balance of 2011 by increasing play consolidation at our properties, attracting new in-market customers and generating continued yield improvements on our marketing spend."
  • "Our shared services operating arrangements for both the St. Louis and Louisiana markets are proving effective in leveraging management experience and excellence across multiple properties.  When combined with operating leverage on the higher revenue levels, we have seen significant Adjusted EBITDA improvement that has outpaced our growth in revenues."
  • "Recent changes include modifications to our casino floors, including the addition of a poker room at L'Auberge du Lac and the relocation of the poker and high-limit rooms at River City.  We have also re-examined our restaurant mix, and recently rebranded the steakhouses at both River City and L'Auberge du Lac, and converted the former steakhouse at Lumiere Place into the new Stadium Sports Grill and Bar.  Also at L'Auberge du Lac, we recently opened a new beach entertainment area.  Each of these enhancements are proving popular with our guests and offer examples of our focus on increasing guest loyalty by ensuring our casino properties remain fresh which furthers their position as entertainment destinations of choice in our markets.
  • "Construction on the Company's L'Auberge Casino & Hotel Baton Rouge project in Louisiana recently fully resumed.  Despite construction delays caused by several months of unusually high water levels, the Company continues to expect L'Auberge Baton Rouge to open in the summer of 2012.  As of June 30, 2011, approximately $273 million of the $357 million construction budget (excluding land and capitalized interest) remains to be invested."
  • "Our development pipeline also benefited from the recent legislative approval of up to 2,500 video lottery terminals at Ohio racetracks, including at our River Downs Racetrack in southeast Cincinnati.  We are currently creating a master development plan to re-develop River Downs into a premier racing and gaming entertainment destination for guests in the region."
  • "On August 2, 2011, Pinnacle amended its existing credit facility.  Among other items, the Company extended the credit facility's maturity to August 2016 from March 2014 , reduced the interest rate spread for any outstanding borrowings by 125 basis points, and amended leverage covenants to reflect Pinnacle's financial strength and accommodate its planned growth pipeline.  Additionally, the size of the credit facility was increased to $410 million from $375 million."


  • St. Louis:  The top-line growth is due to increase in customer spend, cross marketing efforts, and myChoice launch
    • Shared services is really driving top line and margins in the quarter, despite tepid overall market growth
  • Some increased corporate overhead associated with corporate and legal expenses.  Somewhere between 2Q and 1Q is a good run rate to use going forward.
  • Had bad luck at Belterra which negatively impacted their results in May
  • Used $65-70MM in their daily operations
  • New facility lowered their borrowing costs by 125bps compared to their last facility
  • $41MM of capex - $27MM of that was Baton Rouge - rest was maintenance
  • In AC they had to go through an accounting review - had a $3MM writedown at AC
  • MyChoice - will be net neutral to their marketing expenses but they are refocusing on higher value customers
    • Strong play consolidation let to an 18% increase in the spend per visit at L'Auberge
    • St. Louis: double digit growth in the VIP segment
    • Belterra - double digit growth in rated play. In June, VIP rated hotel room nights increased 62% YoY
    • All properties saw increases in spend per occupied room YoY
    • Seeing a very favorable reaction from high end customers and more efficient leveraging of marketing spend
    • 18% increase in RevPAR


  • Ohio continues to move forward toward the legalization of VLTs. Still need to reach an agreement with the horsemen and how that agreement will be implemented. Think that they will reach a decision in short order - this year.
  • Continue to focus on how they can improve the business. They are still in the early stages of implementing improvements to their marketing efforts.  So they are in the middle innings of their improvements.
  • Covenants for new agreement provide them meaningful cushions
  • Capex for 2011: Other than Baton Rouge - their other capex projects are small
  • Their priority is to make sure that their existing properties are operating as efficiently as they can be
  • They aren't focused on having a property in Las Vegas - they are very pleased with their agreement with Wynn Resorts
  • Any one time items in the quarter? No, expect that MyChoice will continue to help enhance their results regardless of various events that they have
  • In AC they filled out an expression of interest which they submitted to the NJ control board. They want to keep their options open but that asset continues to be for sale.
  • Thoughts on the weaker than expected economic data that's coming in?
    • Trying to focus on the thing that they can control and the economy is not one of those things
  • What probability is there of another international development announced over the next 18 months
    • “can’t really answer that”
    • We are still a development company though, not just an operating company
  • It's not clear how much of the improvement at L'Auberge is driven by the economy vs their initiatives
  • Baton Rouge - spend will accelerate into the 4Q - $75% of what is left to spend will happen in the next year
  • Write down of $5MM in the quarter?
    • When they canceled Sugar Cane Bay, they donated some land to the City of Lake Charles.  The transfer of that asset occurred in 2Q
  • In AC - $14MM was a non-cash writedown of existing asset, the balance has to do with ongoing operations there and legal expenses.  On a run rate basis, there are $2MM of so of run rate expenses.  Said that $2-3MM was too high.
  • They have a very significant NOL, so they are not a large tax payer at the federal level. 
  • A normal tax rate would be 40% but some of that would be shielded by NOLs
  • No meaningful updates on smoking bans in their states

JCP: Covering TRADE


Keith covered his JCP TRADE in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio for a nice gain with the stock breaching his immediate-term oversold level of $30.06 this morning. As outlined yesterday on our JCP conference call and in our black book, we remain uber bears on the fundamental story. Keith will be back on this one.


JCP: Covering TRADE - JCP VP 8 3 11



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