Is a Soft Landing in Play?

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here.

The data is by no means setting the world on fire, but things continue to improve in relative terms. Here is a quick recap of yesterday's Philly Fed data. The index dipped slightly to 3.2, down from February's 5.2, yet notably outperformed market predictions, which had anticipated a contraction to -2.3. This marks the second month of expansionary momentum, highlighted by a modest increase in the shipments index to 11.4 and a rebound in new orders to 5.4, marking its first positive turn since October and a considerable improvement from the previous -5.2. However, combined with the New York Fed's "Empire" new orders (which deteriorated sharply), it suggests a mixed national picture. The Philadelphia employment index saw a marginal rise but remained negative at -9.6. On balance, this report suggests improving data and support for the soft landing hypothesis.

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