02/15/24 09:20 AM EST

Multiple Jobholders Number Takes Nosedive

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here.

It’s not every day we update a macro chart and are genuinely surprised by the changes in data. This data falls in that category. The chart illustrates the trend of individuals holding multiple jobs where the primary job is full-time, and the secondary job is part-time. There has been a significant drop in the number of such individuals in the last month, a deviation from an otherwise increasing trend. The data is NOT seasonally adjusted.

At the end of December, 5,085,000 people reported working full-time and maintaining a second job. For January, that number fell quite dramatically to 4,602,000. We think there are two reasons for this. The seasonal work for the Christmas season ended. Many felt the stress of leveraged household balance sheets and needed to work during the Christmas period. The other reason for the decline could be behavioral. There might be an increase in burnout from holding multiple jobs, leading individuals to prioritize work-life balance over additional income from a second job.

The counterpoint here is that credit card growth has reaccelerated, as well as all consumer loans. Credit card usage grew by 2.1% in December to 7.7% in January. The correlation between a drop in second-job holders and an uptick in credit usage could indicate the loss of seasonal jobs is leading consumers to rely on credit rather than a second job. We need more data to really see if this trend of needing two jobs to survive is behind us.

Learn more about the Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha.