TALES OF THE TAPE: CMG, MCD, KONA, MSSR, BOBE

Notable news items and price action from the restaurant space as well as our fundamental view on select names.

 

 

MACRO

 

Corn futures climbed in Chicago as speculation grew that hot weather in parts of the U.S. will curb supplies.  The U.S. is the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn.

 

European coffee stockpiles climbed 11% to 12.7 million bags on May 31 from 11.46 million bags on April 30, according to the European Coffee Federation.  Coffee prices have been in a downward trajectory during July, but remain up 52% year-over-year.

 

TALES OF THE TAPE: CMG, MCD, KONA, MSSR, BOBE - coffee 719

 

 

Food processors continue to underperform as their costs remain high.  Looking at commodity prices over the past week, there seems to be ample volatility across the board and we would expect that to continue to pressure the food processors.

 

TALES OF THE TAPE: CMG, MCD, KONA, MSSR, BOBE - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

  • CMG is reporting after the close.  Consensus comps are +8.6%, consensus EPS is $1.68, and revenue is $558.3M.  Goldman is advising buying an August $330 straddle ahead of a possible EPS miss.
  • MCD June U.S. comp sales estimate was increased to 7.3% at Janney.

 

CASUAL DINING

  • KONA continues to blaze a trail higher, gaining 3.7% on accelerating volume.  It is, by far, the best performing stock on one week, thirty day, and ninety day durations.
  • MSSR and BOBE both gained on accelerating volume.

TALES OF THE TAPE: CMG, MCD, KONA, MSSR, BOBE - stocks 719

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more