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Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here. |
Another alligator chart for you today. Of all the macro we monitor, by far, employment is what we care about most. Very simplistically, if people are working, they are contributing to 401(k) retirements, which means by way of passive vehicles, they incrementally long stocks at any price every month — the end.
With JOLTS and NFP data next week, it's worth highlighting a few things. For proper deep-dive employment analysis, we would direct you to our ProfPlum's substack; however, a few considerations potentially cause job openings and total employment numbers to be overstated.
We are waiting for updated January jobs data; however, the growth of multiple job holders is propping up total employment. A record high 8.69 million people now hold multiple jobs to make ends meet, including 6.6 million that work a full-time job plus a part-time job. The economy lost 1.5 million full-time workers since June of last year while adding 796,000 part-time workers. A bifurcated economy reemphasized.
JOLTS next week is expected at 8.79 million job openings for January. This is down from a high of 11.49 million in May of 2022. A notable downtrend, however, is still 1.39 million jobs above the 2019 highs in openings of 7.4 million. There's reason to be skeptical that even the 8 million number is not a portrayal of the real picture. Not all job postings reflect an immediate intent to hire; they may be used by companies to convey an image of growth or stability, particularly during economic downturns or layoffs. Often, job listings become outdated yet remain active on various platforms, creating an illusion of availability and being susceptible to double counting by the BLS. Some companies post these listings to fulfill internal policies promoting diversity or to give the impression of a competitive hiring process when they may already have a candidate in mind. Others use these postings to gauge market conditions, assess talent availability, establish salary benchmarks, or placate existing staff under pressure from increased workloads without plans for actual hiring. These practices can lead to a skewed perception of the labor market, with "phantom jobs" inflating the number of seemingly available positions.
Interpreting job data is a full-time job. Wish we were hiring.\
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