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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 15, 2011

Our Q3 Macro Themes call is at 11AM EST today – ping me if you still need the dial in info. Our presentation of European debt maturities might grab your attention.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.75% downside to 1318 and 0.70% upside to 1318.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 715

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1732 (-2696)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 925.21 (4.71%)
  • VIX:  20.80 +4.47% YTD PERFORMANCE: +17.18%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.0 from 1.86 (7.89%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 24.47
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.98 from 2.92
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.60 from 2.55

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Consumer Price Index, M/m est. (-0.1%), prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 5, prior (-7.79)
  • 9:15 a.m.: Industrial production, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • 9:15 a.m.: Capacity utilization, est. 76.9%, prior 76.7%
  • 9:55 a.m.: UMich Confidence, est. 72.0, priopr 71.5
  • 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes Rig Count

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • President Barack Obama told congressional leaders to report to him within two days on what debt-limit options members can support after yesterday’s talks
  • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned there’s no possible extension to time limit to raise debt ceiling as S&P joined Moody’s in reviewing U.S.’s top credit rating

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Pizza Demand in Asia Boosts U.S. Cheese Exports to Record, Kraft’s Costs
  • BHP Agrees to Buy Petrohawk for $12.1 Billion in Cash to Add Natural Gas
  • Crude Heads for First Weekly Decline in Three Weeks on U.S. Debt Concern
  • Gold Falls, Paring Weekly Advance, as Rally to Record Price Spurs Selling
  • Wheat Slides for a Second Day as Importers May Favor Russia Over U.S., EU
  • LME Doubles Minimum Delivery Rates for Warehouses Holding the Most Metal
  • Rice Exports From Vietnam May Beat Target on Bigger Harvests, New Markets
  • Copper May Gain on Reports Predicted to Show Stronger U.S. Manufacturing
  • Sugar Drops as Banking Stress Tests Weigh on Commodities; Cocoa Declines
  • China Is Tightening Rare-Earth Access Even as Sale Quotas Climb, EU Says
  • Glut of Natural Gas Produces Record U.S. Exports to Mexico: Energy Markets
  • Beef Contamination Spreads in Japan as Fukushima Radiation Taints Straw
  • Wheat Exports From Australia Climb as China Boosts Purchases After Drought
  • Oil May Advance Next Week on Speculation About Fed Stimulus, Survey Shows

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: plain ugly TRENDs continue to develop with Italy in crash mode (down -20% since February) and Greece is gone (down -31% since February)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: solid is as solid does; China up for the 4th day in 5 (were long $CAF) and the rest of region continues to shape up (Korea, Indonesia)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance 

 MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director