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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 12, 2011

If there's going to be a capitulation day this week, this should be it.  Alternatively, if Global Equity markets and European CDS don't arrest these abrupt moves soon, world markets are going to have a big problem. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.70% downside to 1297 and 0.64% upside to 1328.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 712

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2168 (-996)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 829.43 (+7.56%)
  • VIX:  18.39 +15.30 YTD PERFORMANCE: +3.61%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.88 from 1.65 (+74.71%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.57
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 2.94 from 3.03
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.57 from 2.63

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7:30 a.m.: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 91.2, prior 90.9
  • 8:30 a.m.: Trade balance, est. (-$44.1b)
  • 8:30 a.m.: USDA WASDE report
  • 10 a.m.: IBD/TIPP economic optimism, est. 43.9, prior 44.6
  • 10 a.m.: JOLTs job openings
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $28b in 4-wk bills
  • 12 p.m.: EIA short-term energy outlook
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $32b in 3-yr notes
  • 2 p.m.: Fed releases minutes from June 21-22 FOMC meeting
  • 4:30 p.m.: API weekly inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • The Fed is scheduled to release minutes from the June 21-22 FOMC meeting at 2 p.m.
  • European finance ministers meet again today with plans to respond to release of bank stress tests later this week
  • Italian 10-yr yield rises above 6% for first time since 1997
  • President Barack Obama said to reject Republicans scaled- down deficit deal yesterday; talks continue today
  • Alcoa (AA) 2Q EPS cont ops 32c vs est. 33c

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Crude Oil Falls for a Third Day on European Debt Concern, U.S. Stockpiles
  • Gold Declines for First Day in Seven as Europe’s Debt Crisis Lifts Dollar
  • Copper Drops for a Third Day as Europe’s Sovereign-Debt Crisis May Broaden
  • ‘Double Eagle’ Gold Coin Dispute Harkens Back to Last U.S. Default in 1933
  • Cotton Falls to Nine-Month Low on China Demand Concern, Dollar’s Advance
  • Coffee Declines Amid European Sovereign-Debt Crisis Concern; Sugar Falls
  • Wheat Falls for a Second Day as ‘Risk-off Mood’ Engulfs Financial Markets
  • Rubber Drops for Fourth Day as European Debt Crisis Escalates, Oil Slumps
  • Cocoa Seen Advancing to New Highs on Africa-Indonesia Fix: Freight Markets
  • Oil Rebound Pushes Yields Lower Ahead of Record Debt Sale: Russia Credit
  • Zambia’s Copper Poised for Global Top 5 as Government Lures Vale, Vedanta
  • Corn, Soybean Cash Premiums Advance on Reduced U.S. Sales, Hot Weathert

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: oversold, but this is a bloody mess; Greece is crashing (down 31% since FEB making new YTD lows); Italians just making stuff up

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: worst day in 3 weeks; every market that matters = straight down; HK -3.1%, KOSPI -2.2%, India -1.8%, China -1.7%, Japan -1.4% 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director