Industry: Aggregate Visits saw a major acceleration from -7.1% last week to +12.6% YY this week due to a calendar shift which gave this year an extra shopping day included in this week and lost Christmas day from the weekly data, significantly boosting the YY change. On an adjusted basis, measuring visits over 7 days leading up to Christmas at Superstores, we see that there was only a moderate acceleration in the YY change from -9% to -6%--matching the Redbook Retail Sales acceleration we saw. Given that a similar calendar shift occurred last year, we expect visits YY rate of change to decelerate significantly from here after losing the positive boost moving forward. See both the Unadjusted Aggregate Visits chart and the Adjusted Superstore Visits chart below.
- Notable Industry Callouts: Due to the data shift, every subcategory saw a ~20-point acceleration. On an adjusted basis, these subcategory trends match the Superstore data below.
Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week
- Notable Accelerations: Almost every company saw a notable acceleration this week given the calendar shift in the data.
- Notable Decelerations: NA
Sub-Category Year in Review:
- Department Stores. Ignoring the major acceleration we saw this week, Department Store visits were very volatile this year, with the data squarely negative throughout the year. The stocks underperformed throughout the year given the slowdown in consumer spending and major risk to credit revenue, though they have rallied in recent weeks along with the market. JWN remains on our Best Idea Short list because of its overall credit revenue risk, Rack’s overall share loss in the discount space to TJ Maxx, the weakening consumer, and high expectations from the street.
Chart List
- Industry
- Companies
Source: Placer.ai
