“A successful investing process needs to be flexible and dynamic. What used to work won’t always work.”
-Todd Jordan #RIP
That quote was from October 19th, 2023, when my long-time Hedgeye Partner and dear friend, Todd Jordan, wrote the Early Look. He titled it “So I Married A Therapist” as a tribute to his beautiful wife of 29 years, Marybeth Jordan.
“People say that marriage is a lot of work. I’ve been married since indoor plumbing…” -TJ
Man that guy was funny. He was also the absolute best combination of a family man and a pro. No one loved Marybeth and his kids (Tess and Derek) like he did. No one played The Game at a higher level. And few get to leave at the top-end of my Risk Range like TJ did.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
On behalf of my family and firm, I’d like to thank all of you for your sincere support and prayers for one of the best teammates we’ll ever have. In lieu of flowers The Jordan Family has setup a memorial page at The V Foundation: https://vfoundation.donordrive.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=donorDrive.personalCampaign&participantID=15887
And with that… TJ would say something quip like “are you kidding me? hockey players don’t cry”… and tell me to get back to work. So, with the heaviest heart, I will. He’d want it that way.
Here’s what I already wrote in my Top 3 Things from earlier this morning:
- FX – BOJ opted to maintain their ultra easy monetary policy overnight (maintaining QQE and YCC) so the Yen ramped +1.3% vs. USD on that but remains a relatively new Bullish @Hedgeye TREND signal vs. a newly dovish/pandering Fed. The BOE is much more credible than the Fed on inflation right now so our #VASP has us Long GBP/USD (or FXB) which is up another +0.4%
- RATES – on my #VASP, the US Treasury Bond Market started A) pricing in a US recession here in December with both TREND and TAIL levels of 4.39% and 4.02% on the UST 10yr Yield breaking bad and B) another set of #BLHs (big-lower-highs) and lower-lows in my UST 10yr Yield Risk Range™ Signal of 3.82-4.26% this morning (Long: SHY, BNDD, MTBA, GLD, XLU, GDX, etc.)
- BREADTH – 7 of 11 US Equity Sector Styles were down on yesterday’s “market up” day (Russell 2000 and SPX Equal Weight were down on the day too) with the Top 10 Stocks contributing 40% of the up move. AMZN + NVDA + MSFT = 20% of the up move and all continue to signal Bullish TRADE and TREND @Hedgeye so it is what it is until it isn’t (Long: SPMO as well)
I’ve also attached the extended version of all my Risk Ranges this morning.
#RIP TJ,
KM
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 3.94-4.39% (bearish)
UST 10yr Yield 3.82-4.26% (bearish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.30-4.73% (bearish)
High Yield (HYG) 74.99-77.21 (neutral)
SPX 4 (bullish)
NASDAQ 14,075-15,046 (bullish)
RUT 1811-2012 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 182-194 (bullish)
Energy (XLE) 79.28-85.06 (bearish)
Utilities (XLU) 61.99-65.35 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 2 (bearish)
Nikkei 32,308-33,391 (neutral)
BSE Sensex (India) 68,705-71,611 (bullish)
DAX 16,516-16,858 (bullish)
VIX 11.91-14.96 (bearish)
USD 101.57-104.11 (bearish)
EUR/USD 1.072-1.099 (bearish)
USD/YEN 141.27-146.68 (bearish)
GBP/USD 1.252-1.279 (bullish)
CAD/USD 0.732-0.751 (neutral)
Oil (WTI) 67.61-74.08 (bearish)
Oil (Brent) 72.33-78.99 (bearish)
Nat Gas 2.22-2.71 (bearish)
Gold 1 (bullish)
Copper 3.73-3.93 (bearish)
Silver 22.35-25.01 (bullish)
Uranium (URA) 28.27-29.98 (bullish)
MSFT 366-378 (bullish)
AAPL 191-199 (bullish)
AMZN 146-156 (bullish)
META 318-348 (bullish)
GOOGL 129-138 (neutral)
NFLX 442-483 (bullish)
TSLA 232-257 (neutral)
NVDA 455-503 (bullish)
Bitcoin 40,938-43,987 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
