NewsWire: 12/13/23
- #1: Is the American Dream dead?
- American voters are increasingly unlikely to believe that if they work hard, they will get ahead in life. In a recent Wall Street Journal/NORC poll, just 36% said that this description of the American Dream “still holds true.” In similar polls by PRRI, the share of adults who agreed with this statement was 48% in 2016 and 53% in 2012.
- The largest share of voters in the poll—48%—agreed that the American Dream “once held true, but not now.” And the share of voters who believe that it never held true in the first place is now 18%, or triple the share in 2016.
- The responses to other poll questions reflect unrelenting pessimism. Half of voters believe that life in America is worse than it is 50 years ago “for people like [me],” compared to 30% who believe it is better. The majority of respondents (50%) also agree that “the economic and political systems in the country are stacked against people like me.”
- These results mirror a slew of other surveys showing an enduring lack of faith among Americans about their prospects that extends far into the future. (See Pt. 2 of “America at War... with the World and Itself.”) In an NBC News poll released a few days before the WSJ poll, just 19% of respondents said they were confident the life of their children’s generation would be better than the life of their own generation. This is a record-low for this question, which has been asked since 1990. Similarly, CBS News found that considerably more Americans believe that their standard of living is worse than that of their parents (46%) vs. better (33%).
- Voters’ feelings about the American Dream are perhaps also reflected in persistent negativity about the economy. Historically, views of the economy have fluctuated according to, well, economic conditions. In recent years, they have also become increasingly linked to partisanship, with voters of the party in the White House giving more positive ratings. (See our note in February 2020, “If You Love Trump, You Think the Economy is Strong. If Not, Not.”)
- However, since 2020, large majorities of both Democrats and Republicans have rated the economy poorly. And what’s more, both groups have also become more likely to believe that the economy will be even worse a year from now. If you see few chances of getting ahead, there’s little reason to be cheery about the economy.
- #2: In 2022, the U.S. suicide death rate hit its highest level in over 80 years.
- According to the CDC’s provisional 2022 suicide data, the suicide death rate (per 100,000 people) rose from 14.1 in 2021 to 14.3 in 2022. That marks a +1% YoY rise and the 16th increase in the last 20 years. It’s also the highest rate since 1941 (15.0).
- Who’s behind this rise? By gender, the percentage increase was larger among women than men (+4% vs. +1%). That said, the absolute rate remains much higher among men (23.1 vs. 5.9). By age, the increase was mostly driven by older Americans. Those aged 55-64 saw the sharpest rise (+9%), followed by 75+ (+5%), 45-54 (+5%), and 35-44 (+3%).
- But there was also good news: Youth suicide bucked the trend and declined. The suicide rate among those aged 15-24 fell -9% YoY. And the rate among those aged 10-14 fell -18% YoY. It’s unclear what’s behind this decline. Perhaps new mental health outreach efforts to teens are working. Or the drop simply marks a one-year fluctuation. Either way, young people are still reporting record-high levels of mental distress. And the suicide rate for those aged 15-24 is still +2.4% higher than its peak in the 1990s. (See “Suicides Are on the Rise Again” and “Demography Roundup #6.”)
- #3: Can the Democrats depend on young voters in 2024? It depends on who’s running.
- Harvard’s Institute of Politics just released its Fall 2023 Youth Poll of Americans ages 18-29. And the results have two major implications for the 2024 presidential election.
- First, fewer young people expect to vote. Compared to the same period before the 2020 presidential election, the share of youth who say they will “definitely” vote for president has fallen from 57% to 49%. That’s a -8 percentage point decrease. This decline is more significant among young Republicans (-10 pp) and independents (-10 pp) than Democrats (-2 pp). While this could be good news for Biden, young people in this poll were more likely to identify as independent (38%) than Democrat (35%). And Biden will need as much support from independent voters as he can get.
- Second, Biden’s lead among young voters significantly declines when third-party candidates enter the race. In a match-up between just Biden and Trump, Biden leads by +11 percentage points (41% vs 30%). But when third-party candidates are an option, Biden’s lead shrinks to +4 percentage points: Biden 29%, Trump 25%, RFK Jr. 10%, Cornel West 3%, and Joe Manchin 2%. The largest share (31%) say they “don’t know” who they would support. Of course, the effect of third-party candidates depends on their ability to gain widespread ballot access, which is no easy task. (See “Trend Watch: Episode 7.”)
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