Beer volumes under pressure (STZ)
Domestic tax-paid shipments from U.S. brewers decreased 10.8% YOY in October. Shipments in September were revised down to an 11.4% YOY decrease, 4% points lower. It was the eighth month in a row of declines. Year-to-date shipments have decreased 6.9%. Texas was the top state for shipments YTD at 17.856 million barrels shipped, down 3.3%, followed by California at 16.37 million barrels shipped, down 8.8%. Import shipments increased 2.1% YOY, the first increase after two months of decreases. Imports are down 1.4% YTD. Imports from Mexico increased 2.7% YOY in October, rebounding from a 12.8% decline in September. Imports from Mexico are up 1% YTD. Imports from Canada increased 24% YOY and 1.3% YTD in October. Price increases have resulted in beer volume declines.
Alcohol imports (STZ)
Total beverage alcohol imports decreased 14% by value over the last three months ended October and 9% over the last twelve months.
- Imported beer decreased 6% YOY by volume and 4% by value over the last three months. Over the last year, beer declined by 2% in volume and grew by 1% in value.
- Imported packaged spirits decreased 15% YOY by volume and value over the last three months. Over the last year, spirits decreased by 16% in volume and 14% in value.
- Imported packaged wine decreased 26% YOY by volume and 18% by value over the last three months. Over the last year, wine decreased by 20% in volume and 10% in value.
82% of imported beer by value comes from Mexico. Constellation Brands beer shipments grew 8.7% YOY, and depletions grew 7.9% in the quarter ended in August. The company had supply disruptions with kegs during the quarter but is now producing and shipping kegs.
GLP-1 hearing (HSY)
Senator Bernie Sanders, the Health Committee Chair will hold a hearing this week on the diabetes epidemic. The Senator said he would like to look into GLP-1 medications. Mr. Sanders said, “They’re apparently very significant drugs that could be helpful, but they’re not going to be helpful if people can’t afford them. And then the question is why we are paying in some cases eight times more for that drug than people in other countries?” The Health Committee’s hearing on the high cost of insulin played a role in the price cap bill. Lowering the cost of GLP-1 drugs’ prices will have a significant impact on usage since most insurance plans do not cover the drug.
Emily Evans, our Health Care Policy analyst, is hosting a call on Obesity Drugs & The Path To Reimbursement on Wednesday. She will explore the path to reimbursement for Medicare and insurance for GLP-1 drugs.
